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The 2023 SHTF Financial Survivalist Megapost

UPDATED: April 1, 2023. Because why not share doom and gloom on April Fool’s Day?

Hello, fellow insomniacs, doomsayers, crazy people, and other ne’er-do-wells! It’s that time…again…where we look around at EVERYTHING and we wonder what in the name of Sam Hill is going on. In other words…

We thought we’d pull together a few links and posts and whatnot to help you plan.

If you’re seeing a bit of a shift on this page from general crypto stuff to how/when/where/if crypto fits into the grand scheme, that is by design. It’s that goofy out there.

Here goes.

First Up: Our SHTF Posts From Back in the Day*

The answer to the asterisk is that these two posts — SHTF Vol 1 and SHTF Vol 2 — are from… OCTOBER of 2020. Oh how we’ve grown.

What Would Glenn Beck Do?

It’s actually a really good question, since Glenn is known to plan and think through things like the current economic whatnot.

Here’s a YouTube link from the week of March 13, 2023.

Who Is This Mario Guy?

We’ve loved following Maneco64 on YouTube. He’s been at it for a few years and he’s consistent as heck: “Your home for alternative economics and contrarian views.”

On March 20, he’s chatting here about the whole Swiss/Credit Suisse info, and what the Fed is doing.

How ‘Bout A Clearly Marked Affiliate Link

Binance.Us has one for ya here: Binance Affiliate Link. As with all these, you can potentially get some crypto, and so can we, with a qualifying purchase. Now back to the post.

But…How Much Crypto SHOULD I Have?

This is the question. We don’t have the answer. In fact, our answer in the above seminal SHTF posts kinda sorta thinks that maybe you should have some, but shouldn’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.

An approach we’ve discussed earlier this year is a “Growth Portfolio,” and the 2023 edition is doing quite well. In fact, here are two straight photos of just how well it’s doing. The first from March 5, the second from this morning, March 20. (Ignore all the sixes, it’s not an omen.)

What About the Pundits?

Two years ago (!), yours truly sat down with the legendary Jim Rogers and I asked him about Bitcoin. Of course, this is before all the topsy-turvy Bitcoin craziness of the past couple years.

Funny enough, at the time of that interview, February 18 of 2021, BTC was $46,000. It’s now just over $28,000.

(Note to self: check in on Jim. See how he’s doing. See if he wants to sit down again.)

ChatGPT Isn’t Very Good at This…Yet

We talked in past posts about the limitations of ChatGPT. How it won’t take your job. How you still have creativity and editorial judgement and the ability to think and write and create and add the human touch.

We asked it to write a piece — which we posted here yesterday — and, it’s…fine. We still believe what we said in the above post about your job being safe…for now. But look around. Pay attention. This stuff moves fast.

Another Clearly Marked Affiliate Link

This Affiliate Link is for Crypto.com and they still have their name on the top of an arena. You can get some free crypto with a qualifying purchase and we’d get some, too.

April Update Piece #1

Here’s a link to our “Too Big To Fail?” post from earlier this week.

ChatGPT Isn’t Taking Your Job

When it all started, the “OMG You Should Try Out This ChatGPT Thing!” craze, I thought I’d give it a whirl.

(I Have A Question…)

…ChatGPT, of course, had an answer. Here it is:

It is difficult to predict with certainty which specific cryptocurrencies will survive or fail in the future. The success or failure of a cryptocurrency can depend on a wide range of factors, including its technology, adoption, market conditions, and competition.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of the largest and most well-established cryptocurrencies, and they have both achieved a significant level of adoption and have strong networks of users and developers. This can make them more resilient to changes in the market and give them a competitive advantage over smaller or less established cryptocurrencies.

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and it is possible for any cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, to experience fluctuations in value or to fail. It is also possible for new cryptocurrencies to emerge and gain significant adoption, potentially competing with or even surpassing existing ones.

Ultimately, it is impossible to accurately predict the future of the cryptocurrency market, and it is important for investors to carefully consider the risks and potential outcomes before making any investment decisions.

That Wasn’t Too Bad…

Nuance — in the form of online discussions at least, and maybe with respect to political discourse as well — died recently. It ain’t coming back online, and it certainly won’t come back if it’s reliant on machine-learning, algorithms, and AI-led back-and-forths about topics that used to be parlor discussions. (Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum were parlor discussions back in the olden days.)

It’s time to figure out why ChatGPT isn’t taking your job. It’s…complicated. But simple.

There might only be two approaches to content these days, anyway: either you have a 30-second TikTok piece that goes viral, or you spend 3 hours talking to Joe Rogan and it gets 5 million views. Quick hits, or nuanced explanations. Which brings us to our second experiment.

(Here’s ChatGPT’s Response, Round Two…)

Cryptocurrency is a complex and fascinating topic, one that requires a deep understanding of both human psychology and the mechanics of finance. As with so many things in life, it is a subject that is both rooted in tradition and destined to shape the future.

From a psychological perspective, cryptocurrency can be understood as a manifestation of our innate desire for freedom and independence. It represents a rejection of centralized systems of power and control, and instead offers a decentralized alternative that is based on trust, transparency, and accountability.

At its core, cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency that is built on blockchain technology. This technology allows for secure and transparent transactions, as well as the creation of new units of currency through the process of “mining”. Unlike traditional currency, which is controlled by governments and financial institutions, cryptocurrency operates independently and without interference.

However, it is important to recognize that the use of cryptocurrency is still in its infancy and that it is not without its risks. Just as the traditional financial system is prone to instability and corruption, the world of cryptocurrency is also vulnerable to fraud and manipulation.

Ultimately, the rise of cryptocurrency represents a profound shift in the way we think about money and financial systems. It is a subject that requires careful consideration and a deep understanding of both its potential benefits and its potential drawbacks.

In the words of Jordan Peterson, “The only way to truly understand the world is to understand the underlying patterns that give rise to it.” The same is true for cryptocurrency. To truly grasp its significance, one must delve into its history, its technical workings, and its psychological underpinnings. Only then can we begin to understand the full scope of its impact on our lives and our world.

And This Is Related to Crypto…How?

In our quest to automate everything — do you really need a “smart fridge?” — we’re quick to both automate and delegate the ability to think. That part of your brain that can remember the call-in number for the radio station hotline where you tried to win money back in the day — 234-7533, in case you’re curious; 674-8851 if you’re outside of St. Joe County — can now focus on other things thanks to your “smart phone.” (Which you *do* need.) So your brain is free to explore. Your keyboard is still yours.

Some thoughts, then…

Don’t Be Afraid of Thinking This Through

I haven’t arrived at any of the hundreds of blog posts on this site by heading over to some blog post generation engine and asking what I should write about. And, dare I say it out loud, there are some folks I’ve outsourced some content creation to haven’t been able to provide enough of a nuanced discussion to touch a nerve with readers. (Others? Yeah, some of the work from my pal Anthony were darn good.)

You live and learn, and you continue to think your way through how all of this might play out.

Or might not.

The Power of Narrative

In an article for the site Ordinary Times, I gave a sneak peek at the book I’ve been working on (for too long, it seems) called “Own The Narrative.” The concept: most really good narratives do tend to follow a few rules — and we’re not talking about conflict, rising action, resolution stuff — and if you can see around blind corners and figure out what those rules are and how they apply to your situation, you can use those rules to your advantage.

One of those 8 rules (50 percent fewer than Jordan Peterson’s 12) is to “Identify a Boogeyman.” Automation can be your friend but, in this case, automating the content marketing necessary to tell the story about the nuances of crypto…that’s an enemy. A villain. The Boogeyman.

If It Smells Like A Scam

One wonders if ChatGPT had been employed at all to sniff out FTX. I mean, it looked like a scam, it sounded like a scam. But, if all you’re looking for is some cheap content to ratchet up your brand’s profile, you’re likely to go after keywords and throw in a few affiliate links for good measure. (This blog: guilty as charged on using affiliate links, but not guilty of pumping FTX.)

So Why Won’t ChatGPT Take My Job?

Simple. You think, you read, you explore. You’re willing to seek out more information about whatever subject you’re interested in. You enjoy nuance. You’re not afraid of doing your own research.

And you continue to sharpen your own thinking, and your own writing. Right?

Your voice is…YOUR voice. Not anyone else’s. Don’t outsource your voice to a computer.

The 2023 Growth Portfolio*

* “Third verse, same as the first.”

Or, put another way, we’re doing it…again…but it looks a little like previous editions and a lot like last year’s edition.

First, the Background

Going back to the inception of this site, we’ve created mock portfolios that are designed to replicate what a mutual fund or ETF would look like…if it were allowed to invest in (what we’ve called at cocktail parties) “Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like substances.”

There was the “BRED Portfolio,” our first foray into the genre. (Bonus points scored just now for using “foray” and “genre” in the same sentence.) There were previous iterations of “Growth Portfolios” (though the first was called the “Crypto Balance Portfolio”).

And there was last year’s Growth Portfolio, which…tanked. (Bear markets will do that, it appears.)

Which Brings Us to 2023

Before we start, we do need to ask a question — posed in musical format by semi-obscure British alternative act Kitchens of Distinction, circa 1992 — about “What Happens Now?”

Album entitled “The Death of Cool,” natch

If your portfolio was, in theory, well-positioned to take advantage of a few different crypto developments — like Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the space, plus Ethereum’s “merge,” plus DeFi (like “Sushi“), and throwing in NFT gaming with coins like Magic and DeFi Kingdoms — you might as well just take the same ten coins from the previous year and rebalance on 1/1/23.

(If you want to see the 2023 Growth Portfolio in all its glory (ahem), you can also take a look at the updated numbers anytime over here: CoinGecko Link.)

Quick Thoughts

First up, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Second, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Now that that’s out of the way…What the heck IS GOING ON???

Seriously, the “Up Only” meme phrase from last year’s bull market (before it became a bear market) over there on the one side of the image is kinda done as a joke. But not.

Up Only (So Far, 2023)

They’re all up! The worst performer is DeFi Kingdoms, known by its ticker of JEWEL and it’s up a measly 26.87%. Huh? MAGIC has tripled?

Well, you do realize that most of these went…way down last year. So they’re just ticking back up, trying to answer that old problem of needing to go WAY UP to make back what you lost after going WAY DOWN by (in some cases) 95% last year.

Sigh.

Final Thoughts

Again, you’re on your own with any of these portfolio ideas. You could make mad bank, you could…not.

But it does look like you could have had a nice pickup of 63% in just short of a month had you tried this 2023 Growth Portfolio.

Crypto: Down. Stocks: Down. Inflation: Up. So What Do You Buy?

Here’s yet another post with a couple blatant caveats: (1) THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE and (2) NOBODY KNOWS WHAT’S GOING ON.

We’ve had a couple weeks here in CryptoLand. You name it, it’s down. Take our 2022 Growth Portfolio: a hypothetical $10,000 investment with $1,000 each in ten different crypto assets. Thank God it’s only hypothetical.

Screenshot from May 20, 5:30 a.m. CDT

It was a bloodbath. It still is kinda sorta a bloodbath, in that nobody knows if BTC saw the bottom, or if ETH’s move to Proof of Stake (known colloquially as “The Merge”) is going to be all that, or if stablecoins will stabilize.

And whether or not you’re better off throwing darts.

At Least the Stock Market Is Okay, Right?

Let’s answer the question in the meme with a screenshot.

Stock market, one-month performance.

The problem, though, is that to keep propping up the stock market, The Fed is going to need to thread the needle on interest rates. Too much of an increase and the stock market tanks. Too little of an increase and you can’t catch up with inflation.

So you’re painted into a corner because the stock market is so important to everyone’s 401(k) plan and the inflation rate — which is caused, DUH, by ALL THAT PANDEMIC MONEY PRINTING — is so important to everyone’s standard of living that it really REALLY stinks to be Jerome Powell right now.

Now, Let’s Talk Inflation. Cue Karen Carpenter…

“We’ve Only Just Begun…”

As David Stockman — President Reagan’s former Budget Director, native Midwesterner (shout-out to Michiana!), and future guest on my YouTube channel (call me!) — told us on Doug Casey’s Dispatch a couple weeks ago, we are collectively screwed. And it’s mostly thanks to central bankers.

That part about J-POW having a rough job is not an understatement; the corner we have been painted (printed) into is troublesome. Investors don’t know which assets to invest in, and the average Joe is more worried about real-life things like gas prices or the cost of food.

So…What DO You Buy?

We follow a few financial people on Twitter, on YouTube, and elsewhere. We’re nailing Jell-O to a tree here.

Here’s Joe from Heresy Financial, telling us (SPOILER ALERT) that Treasurys might be the way to go. Here’s another YouTuber — one we found from typing in “where to invest 2022” into the YouTube search bar, then going with the first one we found from the month of May — suggesting individual stocks. And here’s CNBC, taking a break from its “How This [NUMBER] Year-Old [JOB DESCRIPTION] Made [LARGE AMOUNT] By [ZAGGING WHEN EVERYONE ELSE ZIGGED AND/OR INHERITING MONEY]” template (shown here) to give us a whole host of ideas of where to invest in an inflationary environment.

Feel free to grab any of these ideas and batten down the hatches, right?

We’d refer you back (AGAIN) to our series called SHTF. Volume 1 is here and Volume 2 is here. But these are *mostly* crypto-related ideas (with a break for some precious metals and cash on hand). And that isn’t even guaranteed, if the last few weeks are any evidence.

TL;DR: See Elmo

Elmo Fire

Buckle Up. Good Luck.

Help With Crypto Doom Scrolling

If you’re looking for a bright spot, any bright spot, where do you look? Darn good question. We don’t know, either. But here are a couple things to help. Maybe.

It’s Not as Bad This Morning as It Was Overnight

Our 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio

Behold, the numbers from the 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio. The columns next to price are (first) 1-hour change and (second) 24-hour change.

Sell in May and Go Away has been replaced by “buy stuff an hour ago, watch it go up 5% on average, then sell it all and buy some foodstuffs.”

BTW, your $10,000 investment in the 2022 Growth Portfolio is now…$6702.

At Least You’re Not LUNA or UST

(If you are holding one of those or you’re part of the teams behind those…scroll on to the next subhead. Trust us.)

Here’s a chart of what happened overnight to UST.

This is after yours truly thought they had somewhat kinda righted the ship after sorta kinda having one of those weird days the other day.

Still, this is a coin that is pegged to the US Dollar and uses something called “an algorithm” to keep its price at $1.00 Or so we thought; but, as a wise man once told me, sometimes the quants get it wrong.

One year of UST

360 days of being thisclose to $1 each. And then the rug gets pulled. It’s Soros-level market manipulation (Learn more about that here: Soros.) It’s not done.

Below you’ll find a 24-hour price chart for $LUNA, which backs $UST.

We’re being nice. Could have shared the 1-year chart.

Then There’s $COIN

Oy. Coinbase is having a rough go of it, eh? Much will be discussed about the company’s growth — whether too much too quick or the post-IPO blues — but it’s really a yikes moment.

Not a good look.

(We won’t even mention the infamous “Jim Cramer Albatross” rating the stock a buy all the way up to $475.)

Carnage, Carnage Everywhere

The bubbles are popping left and right; not just in crypto. Used-car marketplace Carvana has laid off 12% of its staff. While you’d *think* this has something to do with inflation and used-car demand, you’d be slightly right but actually way wrong.

https://twitter.com/ArifHozef/status/1524174967608250370?s=20&t=U3YALWbg8KLzutFnoY9uzw
Read the thread, short the stock.

This is about that “Irrational Exuberance” that the Fed warned us about back before they became a meme.

At Least Inflation Is Better, Right?

Narrative highlights tell you it’s not so bad.

The narrative machine has kicked in already: it slowed (from 8.5% last month, but that’s year-over-year) but it actually went up (0.3% month-to-month). And Gasoline isn’t bad because the index fell, but energy prices went up year-over-year.

Now What?

“RETVRN” is a common cry among trads on Twitter. Better days ahead if we go back to what better days were like before. Or something like that.

Good luck.