Metacoin

Covering Bitcoin, the Blockchain, Altcoins, and Fintech

ChatGPT Isn’t Taking Your Job

When it all started, the “OMG You Should Try Out This ChatGPT Thing!” craze, I thought I’d give it a whirl.

(I Have A Question…)

…ChatGPT, of course, had an answer. Here it is:

It is difficult to predict with certainty which specific cryptocurrencies will survive or fail in the future. The success or failure of a cryptocurrency can depend on a wide range of factors, including its technology, adoption, market conditions, and competition.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of the largest and most well-established cryptocurrencies, and they have both achieved a significant level of adoption and have strong networks of users and developers. This can make them more resilient to changes in the market and give them a competitive advantage over smaller or less established cryptocurrencies.

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and it is possible for any cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, to experience fluctuations in value or to fail. It is also possible for new cryptocurrencies to emerge and gain significant adoption, potentially competing with or even surpassing existing ones.

Ultimately, it is impossible to accurately predict the future of the cryptocurrency market, and it is important for investors to carefully consider the risks and potential outcomes before making any investment decisions.

That Wasn’t Too Bad…

Nuance — in the form of online discussions at least, and maybe with respect to political discourse as well — died recently. It ain’t coming back online, and it certainly won’t come back if it’s reliant on machine-learning, algorithms, and AI-led back-and-forths about topics that used to be parlor discussions. (Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum were parlor discussions back in the olden days.)

It’s time to figure out why ChatGPT isn’t taking your job. It’s…complicated. But simple.

There might only be two approaches to content these days, anyway: either you have a 30-second TikTok piece that goes viral, or you spend 3 hours talking to Joe Rogan and it gets 5 million views. Quick hits, or nuanced explanations. Which brings us to our second experiment.

(Here’s ChatGPT’s Response, Round Two…)

Cryptocurrency is a complex and fascinating topic, one that requires a deep understanding of both human psychology and the mechanics of finance. As with so many things in life, it is a subject that is both rooted in tradition and destined to shape the future.

From a psychological perspective, cryptocurrency can be understood as a manifestation of our innate desire for freedom and independence. It represents a rejection of centralized systems of power and control, and instead offers a decentralized alternative that is based on trust, transparency, and accountability.

At its core, cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency that is built on blockchain technology. This technology allows for secure and transparent transactions, as well as the creation of new units of currency through the process of “mining”. Unlike traditional currency, which is controlled by governments and financial institutions, cryptocurrency operates independently and without interference.

However, it is important to recognize that the use of cryptocurrency is still in its infancy and that it is not without its risks. Just as the traditional financial system is prone to instability and corruption, the world of cryptocurrency is also vulnerable to fraud and manipulation.

Ultimately, the rise of cryptocurrency represents a profound shift in the way we think about money and financial systems. It is a subject that requires careful consideration and a deep understanding of both its potential benefits and its potential drawbacks.

In the words of Jordan Peterson, “The only way to truly understand the world is to understand the underlying patterns that give rise to it.” The same is true for cryptocurrency. To truly grasp its significance, one must delve into its history, its technical workings, and its psychological underpinnings. Only then can we begin to understand the full scope of its impact on our lives and our world.

And This Is Related to Crypto…How?

In our quest to automate everything — do you really need a “smart fridge?” — we’re quick to both automate and delegate the ability to think. That part of your brain that can remember the call-in number for the radio station hotline where you tried to win money back in the day — 234-7533, in case you’re curious; 674-8851 if you’re outside of St. Joe County — can now focus on other things thanks to your “smart phone.” (Which you *do* need.) So your brain is free to explore. Your keyboard is still yours.

Some thoughts, then…

Don’t Be Afraid of Thinking This Through

I haven’t arrived at any of the hundreds of blog posts on this site by heading over to some blog post generation engine and asking what I should write about. And, dare I say it out loud, there are some folks I’ve outsourced some content creation to haven’t been able to provide enough of a nuanced discussion to touch a nerve with readers. (Others? Yeah, some of the work from my pal Anthony were darn good.)

You live and learn, and you continue to think your way through how all of this might play out.

Or might not.

The Power of Narrative

In an article for the site Ordinary Times, I gave a sneak peek at the book I’ve been working on (for too long, it seems) called “Own The Narrative.” The concept: most really good narratives do tend to follow a few rules — and we’re not talking about conflict, rising action, resolution stuff — and if you can see around blind corners and figure out what those rules are and how they apply to your situation, you can use those rules to your advantage.

One of those 8 rules (50 percent fewer than Jordan Peterson’s 12) is to “Identify a Boogeyman.” Automation can be your friend but, in this case, automating the content marketing necessary to tell the story about the nuances of crypto…that’s an enemy. A villain. The Boogeyman.

If It Smells Like A Scam

One wonders if ChatGPT had been employed at all to sniff out FTX. I mean, it looked like a scam, it sounded like a scam. But, if all you’re looking for is some cheap content to ratchet up your brand’s profile, you’re likely to go after keywords and throw in a few affiliate links for good measure. (This blog: guilty as charged on using affiliate links, but not guilty of pumping FTX.)

So Why Won’t ChatGPT Take My Job?

Simple. You think, you read, you explore. You’re willing to seek out more information about whatever subject you’re interested in. You enjoy nuance. You’re not afraid of doing your own research.

And you continue to sharpen your own thinking, and your own writing. Right?

Your voice is…YOUR voice. Not anyone else’s. Don’t outsource your voice to a computer.

The 2023 Growth Portfolio*

* “Third verse, same as the first.”

Or, put another way, we’re doing it…again…but it looks a little like previous editions and a lot like last year’s edition.

First, the Background

Going back to the inception of this site, we’ve created mock portfolios that are designed to replicate what a mutual fund or ETF would look like…if it were allowed to invest in (what we’ve called at cocktail parties) “Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like substances.”

There was the “BRED Portfolio,” our first foray into the genre. (Bonus points scored just now for using “foray” and “genre” in the same sentence.) There were previous iterations of “Growth Portfolios” (though the first was called the “Crypto Balance Portfolio”).

And there was last year’s Growth Portfolio, which…tanked. (Bear markets will do that, it appears.)

Which Brings Us to 2023

Before we start, we do need to ask a question — posed in musical format by semi-obscure British alternative act Kitchens of Distinction, circa 1992 — about “What Happens Now?”

Album entitled “The Death of Cool,” natch

If your portfolio was, in theory, well-positioned to take advantage of a few different crypto developments — like Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the space, plus Ethereum’s “merge,” plus DeFi (like “Sushi“), and throwing in NFT gaming with coins like Magic and DeFi Kingdoms — you might as well just take the same ten coins from the previous year and rebalance on 1/1/23.

(If you want to see the 2023 Growth Portfolio in all its glory (ahem), you can also take a look at the updated numbers anytime over here: CoinGecko Link.)

Quick Thoughts

First up, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Second, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Now that that’s out of the way…What the heck IS GOING ON???

Seriously, the “Up Only” meme phrase from last year’s bull market (before it became a bear market) over there on the one side of the image is kinda done as a joke. But not.

Up Only (So Far, 2023)

They’re all up! The worst performer is DeFi Kingdoms, known by its ticker of JEWEL and it’s up a measly 26.87%. Huh? MAGIC has tripled?

Well, you do realize that most of these went…way down last year. So they’re just ticking back up, trying to answer that old problem of needing to go WAY UP to make back what you lost after going WAY DOWN by (in some cases) 95% last year.

Sigh.

Final Thoughts

Again, you’re on your own with any of these portfolio ideas. You could make mad bank, you could…not.

But it does like you could have had a nice pickup of 63% in just short of a month had you tried this 2023 Growth Portfolio.

18 Months Later: Was Jim Rogers Correct?

Editor’s Note: We decided to hand the reins over to a guest columnist, Lawrence James, who lives in Sub-Saharan Africa and has become a fan of Metacoin. We asked him to take another look at Dave’s conversation with Jim Rogers, and see what his thoughts were after the fact.

A year ago, in a conversation Dave held with Jim Rogers about the crypto and economic worlds at large, the pair happened to exchange a couple of points. Jim is a long-time investor, hedge fund manager, and co-founder of the Quantum Fund. Most importantly, he’s a self-made multi-millionaire who knows a thing or two about markets.

Biden Backing Up the Money Truck

Dave posed a question on the issue of Joe Biden giving out cash to people who elected him, which put the country in debt, and how it would be paid for. Jim said, “ You’re wondering but Joe Biden is not wondering,“ and later explained that politicians like Biden were driven by a mentality that insinuated that they spend if it’s there, and if it were not there, they would borrow it and still spend it. This came to pass when Biden awarded $1.9 trillion as part of the American rescue plan, which was geared towards bailing out citizens, and giving out $1400 stimulus checks, a move that further put the country in debt. 

Also, concerning the Biden issue, Dave asked for Jim’s view on whether the Biden administration was using that as an opportunity to continue an economic overreach and if such an event would ever unfold again. He said that that would happen again since the governments had guns while referring to power, and they knew what was good for the community. He claimed that maybe their approach was what was going to save everyone.

I think, true to this thinking, Biden’s approach, bordering on “overreach,” ended up working, but the discovery of vaccines greatly aided the administration.

BREAK TIME: HERE’S A SPONSORED LINK to BINANCE. SIGN UP HERE AND WE BOTH GET SOME CRYPTO. Now back to Lawrence’s article.

What About Short Squeezes?

Dave later questioned the issue of GameStop. It had gone up 85% from its usual high then. Jim termed that a short squeeze, for that was not the first time he had seen that, but what amazed him was how they could create such a vast short, which, according to him, was a legitimate and historical kind of event. He also says it can happen again, but he suspects it cannot happen in the Silver markets. However, this came to pass in another market when Nickel faced the risks of another short squeeze as of 31st March 2022.

What About Crypto?

Dave asked specifically if Bitcoin was a worthy trading vehicle, given the fact that, if it were made a publicly traded company, it would rank as the sixth largest in the world (at 963 billion dollars at the time of the interview). Jim termed crypto a worthy investment vehicle; he even added that if he had the chance earlier, he would have bought some for himself.

In line with that, he added that nations without internet access could not use crypto; hence in such a nation, one with crypto can be termed as one only “money rich” but can’t spend their money. He also pointed out blackout cases as another flaw to wanting to access crypto whenever in need readily. He mentioned that many nations had already raged war on crypto use on their borders. And if it were to succeed in becoming money,  the governments would outlaw it if it meant using guns. This has, however, not been the case yet, as El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal currency as of September 2022. 

Market Bubbles Abound…Still?

Next, Dave brought up an interview Jim did with Kitco, where Jim said we weren’t in a bubble in stocks. Jim agreed, but said that bonds were in a bubble, and at that time, bonds were at the most expensive they had ever been, and that was a bubble. He claims on the stock market, some stocks might have registered bubbles, but some stocks, Like Apple, Tencent, and Google, make profits every day and have never been in a bubble; hence the stock market, according to him, was not experiencing a full bubble just yet. He said that the many “SPAC“s coming, which he believed came after a bull market, would bring a bubble burst and an end to the bull market.

An economic bubble popped later in the year. Despite their impressiveness, the 20–30% corrections experienced in the first half of 2022—the most significant first-half decline in more than 50 years—had not yet warmed up. Instead, they had come from high starting positions after a period of the fast price increase. As a result, two problems needed to be addressed: first, were the beginning positions of these corrections so high that markets had inflated? Second, had the markets deflated as much as they usually do when a bubble bursts if they were in bubble mode? Knowing where we came from may help us determine where we were going.

In conclusion, I would say that Mr. Rogers is a man of his word as most of what he said came to pass. Crypto has been termed the future of money, and its use has been on the rise, with many countries even accepting it as legal tender. However, some people are still skeptical about its use, with Jim Rogers being one of them. Nevertheless, he is still a great investor, and his predictions are always worth listening to; however, as he stated earlier, one’s choice of investing should be characterized by their understanding of the investment.

The Zipper Merge

Kid 2 is taking driver’s education — a rite of passage here in the U.S.A., though less so in these modern times, where your every everything is catered to by things like apps, mass transit, Uber, and that concept of “prolonged adolescence” exacerbated by the response to COVID — and likes to tell his parents about how much he’s learned. This also means we have to relearn some things where “The Science” used to be settled (“10 and 2!” is now “9 and 3!”).

Which brings us to “The Zipper Merge.”

Why Not A Video from the Province of Alberta?

We’ve been merging all wrong, it seems. Wait til the very last minute, use both lanes, and Bob’s Your Uncle.

Ethereum’s Zipper Merge

If you’re like me — laser-focused on ETH for months, then there was an implosion in prices and you cut your losses and moved on to other things, like making a living — then the Ethereum Merge has sneaked up on you like a construction zone on US-55. What do you do with your ETH? Do you have any ETH2? Do you know the difference? Do you care?

Understanding The Merge

Long story short, The Merge is where Ethereum moves from “Proof of Work,” or a mining environment that is similar to Bitcoin’s (but not as profitable) where miners are rewarded with coins for proving validity of transactions, to a “Proof of Stake” system, where owners are credited for staking (“parking”) their assets.

Y’all ain’t getting Web3 without Proof of Stake, so that’s where it’s headed. But not without a meandering road with a few…forks.

Once The Merge happens, rumored to be in a couple weeks but certainly in September, ETH will likely see some changes to its price — maybe mad fluctuations? — and it’s going to be bumpy.

So get yourself some tunes and buckle up for the ride. (No, we don’t know who to believe either.)

Some Thoughts THAT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

These thoughts are not investment advice. But here are some considerations…

You Could Leave It All There*…

So yeah, there’s option one. For instance, I have some ETH parked on MegaCryptopolis. The game site is migrating to its own whole new world, so there’s not much choice I have in the matter. Whether I’ll get an airdrop there is another question: rumors abound about airdrops and whether they’ll happen, or not.

And if you *do* leave it all there, you’re looking at — thanks to calculations from Bitmex, with which we cannot trade in our region, natch — $45 per ETH.

Whales will make out like bandits. The rest of us could get a nice dinner out (after taxes, because, well, our jurisdiction will tax the airdrops like income and whatnot).

BTW, the Asterisk above means those assets you have parked in DeFi tools and other…things…like MegaCryptopolis. Or Sushi. Or a Uniswap pool.

…Or You Could Take It All Out of DeFi…

That’s another option here. Probably a pretty viable one, too, if you’ve lost any money from a rug pull. (Who among us?)

The thinking: you can’t trust anyone with your ETH so you might as well take yours out, and certainly take it out of any DeFi protocol with a high potential of rug pulls.

Sensible thoughts, but here’s option 3, which is where we’re landing:

…Something In Between

Here’s the winner.

We yanked some of our coins out of DeFi things, and we traded out of some duds to get ETH a couple weeks ago. BUT, we’ve also done that “why the heck not?” thing with a few. Holding a little in a pool of SUSHI and ETH, a little more in a couple barely there pools.

And holding tight.

We’ll All Be in One-Lane Traffic Soon

That’s the guess: from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, some folks will head off onto side roads, others will go off-road, and we’ll stick in this lane for a little while, while holding a piece of one of those four-wheel drive things.

Hoping it’s not a Yugo.

Seeing Through the FUD: How the Avalanche Network is Saving the NFT

(Editor’s Note: we’ve let our friend Anthony take the reins for this guest post.)

When FUD is at maximum and the bubble seems to have been thoroughly popped already, learn why the future of crypto looks bright for artists, developers, and users. I’m super bullish on Avax for at least three reasons: subnets, a talented artist community, and the best tokenomics project I have ever seen: Chikn.

source
source

As of this writing, the markets have taken mega hits around the world. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt — better known to crypto enthusiasts as FUD — is a term that gets thrown around a lot but it’s representative of how emotionally-driven many crypto investors are and how incredibly wary most are of scams and the completely insane price volatility that crypto is known for. And they have a right to be hesitant since a reported $2.2 billion was stolen via crypto scams only in 2021 — and anyone trading NFTs can tell you that it’s like navigating a minefield sometimes. Those looking for easy money without any due diligence or attention were getting rekt by outrageous APR pump and dump scams, elaborate cash grabs, extreme volatility, and even the recent top 10 coin, Luna, getting obliterated due to a massive exploit with the UST algorithmic stablecoin.

Putting down their bloodshot eyes from their screens for a minute after 48 hours of staring at red candles, the crypto trader of 2022 is a battle-hardened veteran that is being told to go outside and take their minds off the market for a while before they go looney. Not too long ago, they were the green rookies getting into the degenerate world of NFTs and crypto trading. They have seen firsthand just how difficult trading can be — it’s said that 95% of traders lose money.

Often, people have no idea what they’re getting into as their nephew or third cousin or whoever told them to buy a dog coin back in 2017 and maybe they should have (nephew, is it too late to buy the dog coin?) and then wonder why their wallet went to 0 after plugging their metamask seed phrase into a phishing website (wait, I can’t email customer support or the SEC to get my money back?). These stories are far too common, unfortunately, and I barely scratched the surface here. 

It’s not just noobs getting destroyed also, but experienced vets that have been scammed and phished by professional, anonymous criminals taking advantage of the wild west unregulated DeFi space. But it’s all quite interesting, isn’t it? We are still here digging in our trenches.

*Insert my affiliate link to a hardware wallet here*. Just kidding, but seriously, look into getting a hardware wallet such as Ledger Nano X. Nobody will be able to make transactions without you physically using your device to approve it, which can prevent malicious code from emptying your wallet of your crypto and NFTs–it is happening all the time.

This is just the tip of the fudding iceberg, and even experienced veterans can get fooled by a professional scammer. Fortunately, there is a light at the end of the tunnel and silver lining to all of this. That light is the limitless ingenuity of the human spirit and how the cooperation of developers and artists on the Avalanche Network are redefining how NFTs are utilized, including pioneering art, tokenomics, community, and Avax Subnets. The silver lining may be that all these shenanigans and growing pains are happening now while crypto is still in its infancy — like my mom said, it’s better to get chickenpox when you’re a kid than when you’re an adult. The future looks good as we learn from expensive lessons and mistakes and build and grow into a more inclusive and safer Web 3.0 experience. Avax is leading the way on this development and I’ll briefly explain why I think this.

Three reasons why I’m bullish on AVAX

1. Avax Subnets

source


Scaling is a major problem for the most popular networks. Ethereum could be said to be a victim of its own success — with more people using it come the insane eth gas fees we have reluctantly grown accustomed to, with many people using some kind of app to track gas prices and only do their business on off-peak hours — which could still be way too expensive for practical, transactional use. Not to mention that claiming rewards from the node projects right now costs more in Ethereum than they are actually making in claims, effectively killing even the “best” node projects such as Strong Nodes.

Avalanche is helping to solve this problem by building the foundations that create attractive opportunities for project developers. Subnets allow devs to build their own custom chains using their own custom native token as the gas fee. These networks can be optimized based on the needs of the organization or project. At least a few DeFi projects have already utilized subnets, namely DeFi Kingdoms and Crabada, and I know at least DFK is still under constant development despite some recent horrible price action with their token (but I could say that about literally every token right now including Bitcoin — although I shalt not fud as I’m still bullish in the long term). On those projects, gas fees are paid not in Avax, but in that project’s own native token, which basically means the gas is ridiculously cheap. 

GameFi is particulary suited to being hosted on its own subnet, as the game tokens can be used to pay for gas fees

Avax subnets are still in the baby stages and there’s so much potential for this tech. Entire blockchains could even be ported over to Avax subnets. You can look here for a “subnet demo” filled with lots of neat statistics and links.

Read the official website for more info about Subnets and why there is such massive potential for this technology.

2. Artists are pioneering the use cases and utility of NFT on Avalanche, with very affordable prices (unlike Eth)


A Swarms bee in Avax style

Artists are wisely utilizing the NFT as another primary sales avenue, and for good reason because it is allowing independent artists — especially independent female artists — a chance at making revenue. Historically, artists have always had clients or benefactors and so this is a continuation of that. 

However, artists collaborating on NFT projects are changing the game. These are high-powered NFTs that are sometimes breaking technological limitations and changing the idea of what an NFT is and can do.

The Swarms

For example, Swarms is a brilliant art project that gives super-detailed 4K HD bee art as part of an imaginative world that is an analog to our own world and culture, inviting the NFT owner to be a part an interactive artistic experience. There are seven different bee variations, called genotypes, and each bee has six body parts of varying rarity. You can evolve your bee by sacrificing another bee, which levels up your current NFT to “GEN II”. The NFT metadata changes as well as the artwork, giving you a brand new NFT that is based on the “genetic material” of the previous NFTs. It is an awesome blend of tech and co-creative storytelling. Swarms develops collaboratively with the Swarms NFT community, dubbed the Beekeepers.

The awesome lore gives context to the art and makes ownership fun and exciting. The project is clearly just in the early stages with a long and exciting roadmap. You can check out some of the articles I wrote about Swarms for more info — it’s awesome.

Web 3.0 Dieselpunk Metaverse

Metropius is a new multimedia Dieselpunk project which just launched their first NFT collection a few weeks ago. Minting a Metropius NFT allows one to claim an actual hard copy comic book for each NFT they mint. Years in development, Metropius is an award-winning animation that has expanded to include comic books, GameFi, a board game, merch, four NFT collectables, Augmented Reality (AR) and other perks. It has a long roadmap with neat rewards for holders. The metaverse will eventually be fueled by the $DIESEL native token which will be exchangeable with Avax. You can see my article about it here. There’s lots of active development going on with it.

There’s a lot more going on in the Avax art department, but these two are my favorite art projects right now, and it would be a good introduction to the type of creativity happening on Avalanche. It’s a great blend of pioneering tech and artistic ingenuity.

For the general user, Avax NFTs are also way more affordable – most NFTs are minting for only 1 or 2 Avax. Avax had an all time high of $134, which is considerably less than Ethereum’s high of $4732, with most NFTs minting for a bare minimum of a few hundred dollars and often trading for much more. Right now, you can buy a Swarms NFT for just under $60.

Avax also has a super great community, mostly through Twitter and Discord, and there are often Twitter spaces with giveaways and talks and lots of developments being shared by not only the artists but also developers and other community members such as myself. 

3. Stake-to-Earn Tokenomics: Featuring Chikn

When I buy an NFT now, I’m wondering if I will get any benefit from it. Sometimes, sure, I buy one just to support an artist I like, and that’s it. However, more and more NFTs — whether to compete or whatever — are offering various utility and the most popular of this is probably the stake-to-earn tokenomics model, where ‘staking’ your NFT will generate tokens which are then useable within the project’s ecosystem to upgrade the NFT. The token can also be traded for Avax/USDC/other coins (which is the real end game for these projects — people are looking to earn).

One project definitely worth looking into is Chikn.Farm.

Out of every NFT project I’ve encountered that offers utility or earning potential, Chikn is by far my favorite. 

It’s really quite simple which makes it so smart and compelling. Chikn NFTs lay $EGG which can then be used to upgrade the Chikn, but EGG is also used for other NFTs in the system including the Farm and Roostr NFT, which all work together to create a neat little game where you can choose to upgrade your NFTs, thereby generating more tokens in the future, or just selling them immediately on a decentralized exchange, or DEX, such as Trader Joe which is the best and most popular Avalanche DEX.

Anyway, super smart projects like Chikn have proven that NFT stake-to-earn projects can have both very interesting art as well as profitable and sustainable Tokenomics. And what’s really great about it is that they are basically passive income nodes that are MUCH easier to liquidate, since the NFT itself is generating daily tokens and there’s no need to lock anything up for long term-if markets go south, you can sell (and in a successful project like Chikn, you will find a buyer — Chikn NFT floor price is currently 32 Avax as of this writing –it minted for 1 Avax each last November).

Bullish on Crypto and Super Bullish on Avax

source

Although I barely want to glance at my portfolio right now as I’ve been pretty unskilled at catching bottoms recently, I do believe that just buying and holding Avax for the next few years will end up being a profitable investment, regardless of any short term fluctuations. It seems the general sentiment is bullish but we are just being subjected to macroeconomics that takes its toll on everything. In any case, it’s a very interesting space to be involved with. I think once the real potential of subnets are realized, we are going to see a price explosion on Avax similar to Ethereum. If Avax had even just half the market cap of Eth, the price would be around $400–500. As of today we are about $22–25. And remember when Ethereum dipped to $80 and you wished you emptied your savings into it then? NFA at all but just saying….

~ AntCat

Crypto: Down. Stocks: Down. Inflation: Up. So What Do You Buy?

Here’s yet another post with a couple blatant caveats: (1) THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE and (2) NOBODY KNOWS WHAT’S GOING ON.

We’ve had a couple weeks here in CryptoLand. You name it, it’s down. Take our 2022 Growth Portfolio: a hypothetical $10,000 investment with $1,000 each in ten different crypto assets. Thank God it’s only hypothetical.

Screenshot from May 20, 5:30 a.m. CDT

It was a bloodbath. It still is kinda sorta a bloodbath, in that nobody knows if BTC saw the bottom, or if ETH’s move to Proof of Stake (known colloquially as “The Merge”) is going to be all that, or if stablecoins will stabilize.

And whether or not you’re better off throwing darts.

At Least the Stock Market Is Okay, Right?

Let’s answer the question in the meme with a screenshot.

Stock market, one-month performance.

The problem, though, is that to keep propping up the stock market, The Fed is going to need to thread the needle on interest rates. Too much of an increase and the stock market tanks. Too little of an increase and you can’t catch up with inflation.

So you’re painted into a corner because the stock market is so important to everyone’s 401(k) plan and the inflation rate — which is caused, DUH, by ALL THAT PANDEMIC MONEY PRINTING — is so important to everyone’s standard of living that it really REALLY stinks to be Jerome Powell right now.

Now, Let’s Talk Inflation. Cue Karen Carpenter…

“We’ve Only Just Begun…”

As David Stockman — President Reagan’s former Budget Director, native Midwesterner (shout-out to Michiana!), and future guest on my YouTube channel (call me!) — told us on Doug Casey’s Dispatch a couple weeks ago, we are collectively screwed. And it’s mostly thanks to central bankers.

That part about J-POW having a rough job is not an understatement; the corner we have been painted (printed) into is troublesome. Investors don’t know which assets to invest in, and the average Joe is more worried about real-life things like gas prices or the cost of food.

So…What DO You Buy?

We follow a few financial people on Twitter, on YouTube, and elsewhere. We’re nailing Jell-O to a tree here.

Here’s Joe from Heresy Financial, telling us (SPOILER ALERT) that Treasurys might be the way to go. Here’s another YouTuber — one we found from typing in “where to invest 2022” into the YouTube search bar, then going with the first one we found from the month of May — suggesting individual stocks. And here’s CNBC, taking a break from its “How This [NUMBER] Year-Old [JOB DESCRIPTION] Made [LARGE AMOUNT] By [ZAGGING WHEN EVERYONE ELSE ZIGGED AND/OR INHERITING MONEY]” template (shown here) to give us a whole host of ideas of where to invest in an inflationary environment.

Feel free to grab any of these ideas and batten down the hatches, right?

We’d refer you back (AGAIN) to our series called SHTF. Volume 1 is here and Volume 2 is here. But these are *mostly* crypto-related ideas (with a break for some precious metals and cash on hand). And that isn’t even guaranteed, if the last few weeks are any evidence.

TL;DR: See Elmo

Elmo Fire

Buckle Up. Good Luck.

Reputation Laundering in Crypto

To say that Do Kwon — the man behind $LUNA and $UST and the precipitous drop of both this past week — is a bit of a pariah might be the understatement of the year. It’s time, then, to launder his reputation.

On the website Ordinary Times, Dave recently shared his “Own The Narrative” framework in the context of student loan forgiveness. We put together a list of 8 rules — guidelines? concepts? — for owning the narrative, and we showed how the plan could unfold. Other real world issues took precedent in the various news cycles, but we think the framework still makes sense.

We mention that because we’re watching Do Kwon’s Reputation Laundering take place in real time (Sunday Morning, CDT in the USA), and we’re going to see which of the rules he’s applying already.

We’ll have to re-order these rules for today’s Reputation Laundering, but we’ve found half of them already being employed.

Be The Name Dropper (Rule 5)

We think Laura Shin is one of the top journalists working in crypto today. She certainly has the industry bona fides and has a popular podcast with thousands of listeners. You could argue that there is no better choice to go live with than Laura.
This is exactly what Do Kwon is doing right now. It’s “Name Dropping,” but raised to the nth degree. I’ve been watching for 40 minutes already at 9 a.m. Central Time.

If you are in reputational trouble, you need to associate with someone like Laura, and you need to do so quickly.

Start at the Finish Line (Rule 1)

“UST will repeg and LUNA $1 per LUNA next Week.” That is a bullish “Finish Line” statement. It is not very believable right now — if your coins drop to the tune of the below graphic, telling us that you’re going to be on the medal stand isn’t something we can bank on.

This morning’s price also tells us how unrealistic this is.

This works hand in hand with another of the rules…

Make Hubris Your Friend (Rule 3)

To get to $1, $LUNA needs to go up not 5, not 50, but 5000 times from here. Meanwhile, Mr Kwon is on the podcast smiling while talking about things like Korean crypto crashes. (9:10 a.m. Chicago time.)

Use Malleable Definitions to Your Advantage (Rule 6)

The definition of “stablecoin” is probably the most malleable one in modern crypto. These coins — they started this whole mess — are supposed to be pegged to real US dollars (or another similar asset) that is then backed by a cryptocurrency equivalent. In other words, if I put the stablecoin up on a blockchain platform, and it’s worth $1, I should then use my Bitcoin to buy US Treasurys or another stable asset. Questions have come up for the last few years about just how much of the asset is parked somewhere with other coins; but where the Do Kwons of the world got into trouble was using their own algorithmic magic AND their own crypto asset as the “stable” asset backing the token.

1 UST equaled 1 USD until it really didn’t, because, instead of having $10,000 in US T-bills to back $10,000 in UST, they had $10,000 of their own coin. It was ready for an exploit, and, if you want a primer on how that went down, watch this video from two months ago.

This Is the Most Egregious Crime

The worst Reputation Laundering crime is being committed, and it’s not any of the above rules, is this:

THIS IS A SCAM. Do not do this. Never send crypto to anyone with the hopes of getting more crypto back.

How NOT to Launder Your Reputation

Since it’s crypto, and it’s perceived to be the Wild West, and Mr Kwon is out in Singapore and is from Korea and has the perception of a world-traveling vagabond, his moves are not surprising.

And they are completely, totally, 100% awful.

He’s torching the reputation of his own coins, his own projects, and his own name in real time. The rest of the industry will have a ton of work to fix this.

Help With Crypto Doom Scrolling

If you’re looking for a bright spot, any bright spot, where do you look? Darn good question. We don’t know, either. But here are a couple things to help. Maybe.

It’s Not as Bad This Morning as It Was Overnight

Our 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio

Behold, the numbers from the 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio. The columns next to price are (first) 1-hour change and (second) 24-hour change.

Sell in May and Go Away has been replaced by “buy stuff an hour ago, watch it go up 5% on average, then sell it all and buy some foodstuffs.”

BTW, your $10,000 investment in the 2022 Growth Portfolio is now…$6702.

At Least You’re Not LUNA or UST

(If you are holding one of those or you’re part of the teams behind those…scroll on to the next subhead. Trust us.)

Here’s a chart of what happened overnight to UST.

This is after yours truly thought they had somewhat kinda righted the ship after sorta kinda having one of those weird days the other day.

Still, this is a coin that is pegged to the US Dollar and uses something called “an algorithm” to keep its price at $1.00 Or so we thought; but, as a wise man once told me, sometimes the quants get it wrong.

One year of UST

360 days of being thisclose to $1 each. And then the rug gets pulled. It’s Soros-level market manipulation (Learn more about that here: Soros.) It’s not done.

Below you’ll find a 24-hour price chart for $LUNA, which backs $UST.

We’re being nice. Could have shared the 1-year chart.

Then There’s $COIN

Oy. Coinbase is having a rough go of it, eh? Much will be discussed about the company’s growth — whether too much too quick or the post-IPO blues — but it’s really a yikes moment.

Not a good look.

(We won’t even mention the infamous “Jim Cramer Albatross” rating the stock a buy all the way up to $475.)

Carnage, Carnage Everywhere

The bubbles are popping left and right; not just in crypto. Used-car marketplace Carvana has laid off 12% of its staff. While you’d *think* this has something to do with inflation and used-car demand, you’d be slightly right but actually way wrong.

Read the thread, short the stock.

This is about that “Irrational Exuberance” that the Fed warned us about back before they became a meme.

At Least Inflation Is Better, Right?

Narrative highlights tell you it’s not so bad.

The narrative machine has kicked in already: it slowed (from 8.5% last month, but that’s year-over-year) but it actually went up (0.3% month-to-month). And Gasoline isn’t bad because the index fell, but energy prices went up year-over-year.

Now What?

“RETVRN” is a common cry among trads on Twitter. Better days ahead if we go back to what better days were like before. Or something like that.

Good luck.

Creators Gotta Create (and Announcing Our New Collection)

We saw a maxim somewhere on the internet and decided to share it: “Be brave enough to suck at something new.” If the web3 explosion has taught us anything, it’s that there are completely new ways of making a buck — and creators (like you, perhaps?) are learning new and interesting tactics along the way.

And some of us — maybe some of you — weren’t very good at it to start. We get better: the more you write, the more often you write, the better you become at writing. The more you make music, the more often you make music, the better a musician you become. We could go on…

We Are Onto Our 4th NFT Collection

A year ago, we started sucking at something new here: our first collection of NFTs. (The first one is here, created on March 14, 2021.) Called the “Obvious Statement Collection,” the goal was to come up with a few pieces — we’ve created 25 of them so far — that told you something that was, well, obvious. (And maybe semi-controversial, like the statement below.)

Collection two, “One Hundred NFTs,” was perhaps a little better but, as art goes, it ain’t great. Three, though, we’re especially proud of: #Sketches2021 is its name (see below about the giveaway!) and here’s a link to all 256 of them: Sketches 2021.

So it’s time for our fourth collection. We’ve entitled it “Collezione” and the plan is 256 pieces (again; that’s a nice number that is definitely attainable.) 26 of them have been created so far. And we’re pretty pleased with how they’ve turned out.

w123 in the Collezione series

We’re Giving Two NFTs Away!

So here’s what’s up with the giveaways*: All you have to do is follow the instructions below by March 31. We’ll pick two at random and one will get a piece from Sketches2021 and one will get a piece from Collezione. Those instructions…

  • Follow @teammetacoin on Twitter or Instagram. (You can do both to increase your chances!)
  • Like at least one of our posts from between March 20 and March 24.

On April 2, 2022, we’ll select one Twitter follower and one Instagram follower at random (* here’s where the asterisk comes in, as this is not a sweepstakes or contest or the like, all decisions final and it’s a gift and there’s no cash value) and we’ll send them a DM and they’ll respond with their ETH address and enjoy their new artwork.

Good luck! Now go create something.

Inflation.

18 months ago, right before the Presidential election, we wrote a two-part series that got a little bit of attention. In it, we discussed a strategy for when things get pretty bad.

Part One (go here for more: SHTF Part One) is probably more endemic to today’s news of an inflation rate that has the risk of spiraling out of control than Part Two.

But, to be honest, we didn’t think, even back then, that we’d see 7.9 percent year-over-year inflation. In the United States.

(Thanks to tradingeconomics.com for the chart; month-by-month figures going back to Jan. 2017.)

The U.S. Dollar Is…Get This…An Inflationary Asset!

To paraphrase George Costanza’s risk management tapes from the show Seinfeld, “in order to understand ‘inflation’ we must first define ‘inflation.'”

When you print way too much money, you get inflation. “Inflation is, always and everywhere, a monetary problem,” according to Milton Friedman. You can throw blame at whichever President or Congress you’d like (they’re all guilty, as we learn in this balanced piece from the website The Balance), or whichever crisis you’d like (though, to be fair, the Federal Government printed a metric crapton during COVID).

Don’t Believe The (Putin) Hype

Listen to Chuck D.

Don’t listen to Joe B.

The seeds were sown ages ago — like, probably three or four Fed Governors and Presidential Budget Directors ago — and the reality is that Vladimir Putin is a mere scapegoat. Gas prices are rising, but they’re not totally his fault; and the rise in food prices to come will be due, in part, to Putin’s war.

But you could get into a host of academic arguments and ask who bears the most responsibility and it won’t solve the problem.

‘Bitcoin Solves This!’

Yes, and no. And maybe.

As Putin’s War Machine and his “Evil Cronies” are learning, if you can’t use the global financial system that exists — if you’re shut out of traditional banking — you have to make do. In Putin’s case, that means calling China. In your case, that means…well, that means a few things.

First up, you’re not Putin, planning on invading another country. But you don’t know if or when you will fall out of favor with the traditional banks. (See “Trudeau, Justin” for an example of just how that could happen to you.) You also don’t know exactly how bad this inflation stuff will get — and you could find yourself using the black market (WHAT???) before you know it.

Seriously.

Venezuelan Black Market Finance

If you live in Venezuela, you have been dealing with this sort of thing for a while. There’s an official exchange rate, then there’s an unofficial black market rate. And there’s always the risk of the government revaluing the currency.

Zimbabwe had to do this, too, creating a 100 Trillion Dollar Bill back in the day.

And on and on…

Upshot: Get In The Game

You don’t know when the time will come where you need some of that stuff in the post — Cash, Precious Metals, some BTC through Coinbase or Crypto.com, and some ETH too (THOSE ARE AFFILIATE LINKS OVER THERE, WE COULD BE COMPENSATED IF YOU SIGN UP THROUGH THEM) — and you don’t know when it might…hit the fan.

But standing on the sidelines, now, is not an option.

WWJDD? (What Would Jamie Dimon Do?)

He’s not there yet.

We’ve watched what seems like a continued stream of people, and brands, and influencers, and siblings of influential people who own brands (see below) add .eth to their online persona.

But we’ve yet to see Jamie Dimon do it. Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase. Dimon, the influential business guy. Dimon, the brand.

Dimon, of the “Bitcoin is a fraud” quotes.

Your question: did that actually happen? The answer: yes. Here’s CNBC’s report on the matter.

He has, however, changed his tune. A little: his bank is in the game (fits and starts, though, behind JPM Coin) and they’re supposedly in the metaverse buying and selling digital real estate.

The Next Step For Jamie?

Well, Metacoin to the rescue here: we’re auctioning off jamiedimon.eth.

Yes, that’s right. Cybersquatting? Read this article and let us know.

10 ETH is a fair price, we think. Maybe Jamie’s people will think so, too?

So the big question: What Would Jamie Dimon Do?

When the Growth Portfolio Doesn’t Grow

We’re on a mission with the 2022 Growth Portfolio. We’re just not yet sure what that mission is.

When we jumped into the fray with our own mix of ten tokens to potentially invest in — and of course you should DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH — the thought was as follows: get a basket of tokens and ride out the 2022 market with it.

Up? Down? Sideways? Stalwarts like Bitcoin and Ethereum? Up-and-comers in Web3 like $ENS and $MAGIC? Yes.

So maybe the mission depends on the markets; a basket like this can help you ride the ups and downs.

And, So Far This Year, Lots of ‘Downs’

Meh Performance.

So we’re taking one on the chin so far.

That, my friends, is an understatement. Bitcoin’s doing fine when compared to the others — but still down nearly 20 percent — and Ethereum has been down and then a little back up but still down in 2022. To wit:

The roller coaster that goes down first

No time to do any touchdown dances or victory laps: this is not good performance. What gives?

We Don’t Know Why. Time to Catch the Falling Knife?

This is the question I get pretty often: have we hit bottom, or is it time to catch the falling knife? And, from the school of “IDK, DYOR,” I can posit a guess or two but invite you to study this on your own.

Guess One: Global Unease Equals Meh Performance

If I see one more post about “this is the time for Bitcoin” using the context of global geopolitical events as proof that this is the time for Bitcoin, I’ll scream.

However, you *could* guess that people in places like Canada who have had their bank accounts frozen might see a little truth to that. If you can’t even get money out of your bank then, well, this may be the time for Bitcoin.

(Also, if governments don’t understand how these things work, they may only choose to regulate them further. Will that push any and all coins into an oblivion? Will that lead to a black market for all things? Will that drive everything higher?)

Guess Two: Is There TOO Much Crypto Noise?

Is it possible that the ads from Larry David and Lebron James have rendered some of us inured to the noise around the subject? I mean, not the OGs like you and me, natch, but the rest of the world.

Nobody really knows what constitutes a good deal these days, so the newbies jumping in might not care if Bitcoin is $35K or $25K. And so on: for assets without earnings seasons and dividend payments, you’re flying blind.

Celebrating Our Only Good Pick So Far…

“Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.”

We got lucky with $MAGIC. Somehow, at treasure.lol — that’s the web address! — they’re building a pretty cool…ah…uh…whatever they’re building. But trust us, it’s at the intersection of NFTs and gaming and crypto writ large, so we’re there for it.

We had mentioned it a couple times before on these pages, most recently in this post: How to Spend $1000. And we’ll ride this for as long as is feasible.

Today’s Takeaway…

We have mentioned this is not investment advice, right? And that you should do your own research?

Yes, that. Also you may or may not be better off being lucky than being good.

NGMI: Why You Should Sell It All And Become A Monk

You don’t really think we’re gonna make it, do you?

Internet sub-cultures are a wonderful thing. Sometime last year, a combination of NFT purveyors and OG crypto traders started to adopt the phrase “gm” as a means of wishing each other “Good Morning.” It’s really a fine line here. Do it right — simply use the two letters, don’t use capitals, don’t repurpose the General Motors logo — and you’re part of the crowd. You’re Shiv and Tom in the screenshot below. Happy. Complete. Enjoying a good time. Celebrating life.

Do it wrong and you’re Kendall Roy, the punch line of the joke everyone but you is in on. (Watch the video. Cringe with us.)

Shoehorning a Succession reference into a blog post notwithstanding, “gm” evolved and “WGMI” was added shortly thereafter — at least by my measurement of the timeline, which could be off a hair, don’t hold me to it, DYOR and all that — to underscore the optimism that the crypto and NFT communities bring to the world. We’re Gonna Make It.

OR “Ain’t No Stopping Us Now,” as both McFadden and Whitehead reminded us sometime around 1979*.

We’re Gonna Make It! The optimist is on board: crypto is the future! NFTs are adding value to the economy and giving artists new life!

The pessimist reads the asterisk below.

* IIRC, the song was adopted by the 1979 Baltimore Orioles as their answer to the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates’ choice of “We Are Family” by Sister Sledge. The Pirates came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Orioles in the 1979 World Series; I won 50 cents off my Dad.

Which Brings Us to Our Point: NGMI

Shortly after either learning about the WGMI acronym or reading about the untimely demise of Messrs McFadden and Whitehead, new lingo was created: NGMI. Not Gonna Make It.

How Bout That Portfolio?

Egads! That kinda stinks, right? We launched the Growth Portfolio a couple weeks back on this here site and our goal was to give you, Gentle Reader, a basket of those coins that can give you the best opportunity for potential success. Big coins, mid-sized coins, up-and-comers that are taking advantage of the NFT-based web3 economy: it’s all there!

And it’s getting pummeled, as is everything else.

The Biggest Dogs

BTC is below $40,000, ETH has dropped below $3000. The end is nigh!

This Blog Post’s Title Is Tongue-in-Cheek

We really don’t know how to make sense of this market the past couple weeks. Our own holdings are down nearly a third since the beginning of the year. We won’t even begin to call a bottom, or else we’ll look like this guy.

Or we could guess that this guy (below, Fed chair Jerome Powell) will bring new people to crypto writ large through the Fed’s (possible) creation of something called “digital cash:” this is one of those “CBDCs” being bandied about in other countries.

We also *could* start talking about new NFT developments — seems like everyone is getting in on the action, right? — and see that the challenges to OpenSea from Crypto.com and Coinbase probably say we’ve only just begun.

Our Point: Don’t Give Up Just Yet. Or Do Give Up.

In any event, here are a couple concepts to embrace:

  • Do Your Own Research. “DYOR” is one of the acronyms we use often around here. Don’t rely on us to tell you what to do. Sniff out a few other folks, check into CT (“Crypto Twitter”) and find out what people are talking about.
  • Experiment. We’ve gotten in early on a couple coins. We’ve also blown it on a couple, too. (Our stake in this one, for instance, was purchased when the price was about 80 cents each.) And we’ve created a series or two (or three) of NFTs, with limited success. But, again, we’re not afraid of experimentation.
  • Enjoy the Ride. The main reason yours truly is involved in this space is because he finds it bloody fascinating. Not every project is going to be eye-catching to you, not every token launch is going to make sense, and not every bit of lingo is going to be clever. If it’s not fun, then maybe it’s not for you?

gm

Keep at it. Or become a monk.

We’ll be here either way.

The 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio

It started with a tweet, shared in response to an epic Twitter thread.

First, the thread:

Then, my tweet:

The thread from Adam is LONG, so you’ll need to devote some serious time to studying it, or you’ll want to keep referring back to it a little at a time (that’s my plan; Adam shares some great info but it wasn’t until one of my Twitter friends referred to a specific recommendation when I started reading chunks in detail).

My tweet, however, was meant to start some conversations around a simpler potential portfolio you could put together to play this new new new NEW economy of web3 and whatever else is going on.

We present our 2022 Growth Portfolio in the same spirit as past HYPOTHETICAL portfolios: Do Your Own Research, Not Investment Advice, and, well, here’s an interesting way to track what’s going on in Crypto.

What’s Here (vs. What Was in the Tweet)

Caveats first: I made a couple changes to the December 30 post; I decided, to be direct, that $UNI and $CRV didn’t fit with the portfolio. So $AVAX and $SUSHI were inserted instead. The “Rank” column on the left-hand side is taken from this morning and all prices (both 1/1/22 and 1/5/22) were from CoinGecko.com.

Also, I created the list, did the whole price thing, and then…”#BitcoinCrash” or whatever, the afternoon of January 5. So I had to recalibrate based on pricing the afternoon of the 5th. (Hopefully the bloodbath is over.)

The idea goes like this: take a hypothetical $10,000 investment and divide it equally among ten coins. Past portfolios used fewer coins (BRED used just 4) but this might be the best way to spread the risk.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

The first two choices may be obvious: Bitcoin ($BTC) at nearly $900m at this writing and Ethereum ($ETH) at $400+m right now are the Big Two; third-place (by market cap) coin $BNB is 1/4 the size of $ETH. Bitcoin may or may not BE the crypto market, but a coin that is 1/3 the size (roughly) of Apple is probably a force to be reckoned with.

Ethereum is rather formidable in its own right, and, for the purposes of having an entry point into the rest of the coins through something like Metamask, you want some $ETH.

(SIDEBAR: Metamask has ONLY 21 million users? You want to get some $ETH and start using Metamask *if only* for the possibility of an airdrop, a la $ENS.)

Avalanche

Avalanche ($AVAX) traded at (GASP) $3.67 on January 1, 2021. So it’s up nearly 30x in one calendar year. Is it done?

We don’t think so; of course we’re kicking ourselves for being late to the party but it, as a platform, is pretty stellar and may have plenty of room to grow. (Could it pull back? Yes. $24B market cap might seem a little pricey. But $100B isn’t out of the realm and, let’s be honest, if you could 4x a piece of your portfolio, you’d probably be willing to risk a little.

Shiba Inu

Yes, we’ve seen the stories about the kid somewhere who invested a few hundred dollars in Shiba Inu ($SHIB) and now owns his own island. This one, for us, is the last of the famous international meme coins. You’re speculating that there’s a chance the $SHIB community can get this thing to a tenth of a penny, which would mean roughly 30x growth from here. (It would also mean that its value dwarfs the current value of $ETH, so yeah that’s a tall order.)

Realistically, though, expect a couple more bullish cycles of this highly volatile meme coin. Worth taking a chance on.

Crypto.com

You can’t go anywhere without seeing BRAND SPONSORSHIPS IN CRYPTO. FTX has an arena, as does Crypto.com; Crypto.com has Matt Damon, so advantage $CRO, its coin.

AND HERE’S A CLEARLY MARKED AFFILIATE LINK: We can both get a little something if you use this link and sign up and make a qualifying purchase.

This is probably the best way to play “pure retail crypto,” if that’s what you call a brand that pays big bucks to have Matt Damon on board.

Sushi

We pulled out Uniswap specifically and replaced it with Sushi ($SUSHI). We like the platform better and, while Sushi has ebbed and flowed and zigged and zagged — $3.32 on 1/1/21, then a high of $23.38 in March of 2021, and today at $7.76 — its one-stop-shop of Pooling and Staking and Farming is pretty nifty.

DeFi Kingdoms

$JEWEL is the token behind DeFi Kingdoms, which our buddy @TxdoHawk on Twitter talked about yesterday.

If you’re playing the DeFi-meets-Gaming-meets-NFTs space, there are worse places to do so.

Ethereum Name Service

$ENS is the governance token behind the Ethereum Name Service, and it was airdropped in November to users; we did a deeper dive on the site a couple weeks back. We still like it a ton.

Treasure

We talked about this one yesterday, too; $MAGIC is the coin and it is on a roller coaster this year already. (And today, dropping from an all-time high of $4.75 to its current level at $3.61 a token.)

The part above about DeFi Kingdoms playing the intersection of a couple of categories applies here: $MAGIC could very well be a ten-bagger this year (and that would put it just above $1B market cap).

What’s Next?

We plan, as we did in past years with the BRED Portfolio, to keep tabs on this one, with an update at least at the beginning of each quarter. It should be fascinating to see unfold.

‘Not Investment Advice’ — What To Do with $1000 Right Now

So we’re starting an occasional series here called “Not Investment Advice.” We’re reaching out to a few people — in the Bitcorn universe and in other financial worlds — and we’re asking them: “What would you do with $1000 right now?”

This is, as we say in the headline and in the first paragraph here, “Not Investment Advice.”

Our first contestant is my buddy Mike on Twitter (his handle is @TxdoHawk) and below are his thoughts. As the days progress, we’ll add more comments from more commentators.

Mike (@TxdoHawk) Says:

DeFi Kingdoms (JEWEL) – There’s been a lot of discussion of blockchain gaming, Play 2 Earn, and the like in the back half of 2021. Studio after studio have launched flashy 3D trailers promising epic universes to explore. But in the meantime, DeFi Kingdoms has been quietly building out their vision: A gamified decentralized exchange that’s a love letter to a simpler time of 2D, 16-bit RPGs.

I have two rules when it comes to these sorts of investments. One, bet on teams, not projects; it’s clear the DeFi Kingdoms team has put a lot of careful thought into building out their universe. One only has to attend one of their weekly AMAs to get a real sense that this is a group serious about what they do and how they execute. Everything is thought through, the fledgling economy is carefully considered even at these early stages, and they are truly excited to share their ideas with the world.

Rule two is “one line of shipped code is worth more than a hundred roadmap promises.” Here again the team has excelled: In the 4 months since launch they have launched their DEX, hero NFTs that can earn experience and stat boosts, along with the beginnings of questing and the basics of an RPG-style economy where quest rewards can be earned, as well as bought/sold.

Skeptics might point out that the real meat of the game has yet to arrive: Major items on the to-do list are the remaining basic profession quests, along with lands (and their mechanics) as well as a PvP combat system. But what this team has already launched still dwarfs most projects in the space, many that have little more than a hype video and outstretched hands begging for investments.

The easiest way by far to get a foothold in this world is via the liquidity farms, referred to as Gardens. You can be earning JEWEL in a matter of minutes with no further effort required, and the APYs are still generous to this day, although a good chunk of that will be “locked” and released over a further out timeline. But think of that locked JEWEL as a generous call option: by the time you get your grubby paws on it, it could very well be that DeFi Kingdoms has built out one hell of a thriving ecosystem, especially with the newly-announced Crystalvale expansion coming to the Avalanche network.

Dave from Metacoin (That’s Me!) (@TeamMetacoin) Says:

I continue to be in awe of what they’re building at $MAGIC, whose website is Treasure.lol. Really. They have a “dot-lol” web domain.

And this is just from an investor standpoint, as I have yet to ACTUALLY PLAY THE GAME. (What’s Warren Buffett’s line about “investing in what you understand?”)

What I *do* understand is the convergence of NFTs (yes, I’ve created them and bought a bunch), DeFi (been there, done that), and gaming (duh).

They have the “slick video” going for them — but, to Mike’s point above, rather have delivered code, so the jury is still out on all of it — as referenced here:

This one is out of the “better lucky than good” dept. See chart below.

To be honest, this one was part of my “let’s speculate on a couple assets” plan toward the end of 2021. Others may not have done as well; $SPELL and $AVAX each doubled for me (thanks to good timing) but aren’t up multiples like my $MAGIC bet.

Whether the sky is the limit or not is a whole other question. But, and again THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, $MAGIC could be an interesting one to watch in the months to come.

A Month Later: Is $ENS the Perfect* Web3 Token?

If you were lucky enough to grab some $ENS, the token from the Ethereum Name Service project, congrats! (If you haven’t but think you may be entitled to some, there’s still time. Go here: ens.mirror.xyz and take a look.) The token dropped into wallets on November 8 and it’s been nearly a month to watch it unfold, so we thought we’d examine a little further.

The price chart has been a thing to behold: if the average user got a couple hundred $ENS tokens, and those are now trading in the low $40 range, an $8000 or $9000 payday is nothing to sneeze at. Pick out your Christmas gifts — so long as they’re not negatively impacted by the supply chain — and rock on!

Not Bad for Playing on the Internet for Three Years

But, long term, is $ENS all it’s cracked up to be?

First, the Background

We actually talked about this in our post from June 2019 called “Playing the Long Game.” Back then, we didn’t really see the prospect of an airdrop coming, we were just looking for a combination of Ethereum Cybersquatting and Finding A Cool Domain Name.

You can register a bunch and they only cost about $5 a year; we registered several and use one of them as our principal registry.

In theory, we could use one of the ones in our stable, like “jamiedimon.eth,” and set it up to give and receive tokens. (Or you could try to sell it to JP Morgan Chase, which the owner of the above coin appears to be doing.) (Note that it doesn’t take an internet super sleuth to figure out that the author of this post owns jamiedimon.eth.)

If you think of these dot-eth domains as your portal to Web3, the metaverse, AND your crypto holdings…that’s a pretty good way to look at it. Now, let’s do a little analysis.

‘I Promise, It’s Perfect.’

That was the tagline from a golf club that was sold in the early 2000s. Called “The Perfect Club,” it could get you out of trouble, like tight lies, and suggested that mere mortals like me (with my handicap of…well, let’s say it’s not pretty) could use it on shots from about 190 yards out and drop the ball on the green with minimal effort.

I don’t remember seeing an asterisk — * — like the one in the headline of this blog post, but it should have come with one. Especially when the announcer himself said “I Promise, It’s Perfect.”

But the question at hand, and where the asterisk leads us, is whether or not $ENS *may* be the Perfect* Web3 token.

Here are a couple reasons — and yes, this is not financial advice and you should DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and we’re not responsible for your gains or losses — why $ENS could be the on-ramp to Web3.

The Analysts Are Taking Note

Van Eck is kindof a big deal. One of their analysts did a pretty solid analysis of what’s going on with Ethereum domain names, the bread-and-butter of the ENS entry point to the rest of the investment world.

We’ll link to Matthew Sigel’s post here, and we found it more than a little interesting (in a good way) that Sigel compares the ENS domain business to Verisign. (We also didn’t realize Verisign was such a stud.)

Van Eck’s Sigel summarizes the dot-eth trend better than we could right here:

Plus the Airdrop Means Fewer People “Heading for the Exits”

Here’s another aspect to look at: when you have projects that make people rich very early — not just crypto or Web3, but IPOs, too — you always run the risk of a “cut and run.” For instance, a Junior Software Developer signs up for a gig at a startup, is given some options, and the startup IPOs. Whenever the lockup expires, the developer gets bored, has high-six or low-seven figures in cash, and heads straight for the exit.

Because of an airdrop that didn’t end up with tons of rich people, and with no VCs taking part, the result is that nobody (aside from the founders, who are in this for the long haul) got super rich. The lack of “F*** You Money” makes this a potential winner.

AND…It’s a DAO

This would be the third reason this is so huge: governance.

DAOs are Decentralized Autonomous Organizations. Simply put, they’re designed to run with limited involvement from management, delegating votes on a variety of governance issues to a team. To collect your $ENS tokens you had to vote on a series of proposals and select a delegate to vote on your behalf.

They’ve built a black box and the management of that black box is in the hands of the team of delegates, but proposals to change the way the black box functions take a majority. And some of it is immutable — like the DAO can’t really go out of business — so they’re definitely looking at this with a decades-long time horizon.

Should You Buy at This Price?

Again, this is not financial recommendation, and do your own research.

But the token itself is right around the top 100 in market cap and it’s just north of $1B. Compare and contrast that with tokens like $SHIB (~$19B market cap as of this writing) and take a look at the functionality of $ENS in comparison with other tokens ($SHIB has a cult-like following and has rocketed upwards, but is it really THAT valuable?).

$ENS might not be a bad bet in the grand scheme.

Good luck.

Rocks and Bored Apes; AlphaBettys and Prison Raccoons; and Our Own #Sketches2021

Welcome to the wonderful world of NFTs. The alternate title for this post is “NFTs are crazy, right?”

As we have discussions with people in and around the cryptocurrency universe, we feel we’re almost always needing to provide evidence of our own bona fides. Typical conversations:

“Oh, you got $4,000 from Uniswap? Well, have you ever made $150,000 off of airdrops?”

“I bought my first Bitcoin at $20!”

“Gee, you shouldn’t have sold your $ETH; I met Vitalik once and he’s the real deal.”

These discussions remind me of the typical indie-rock tropes, like “well, I saw Arcade Fire when I was a student at McGill,” or “I saw Fishbone at the Lost Horizon in Syracuse in 1991.” (The second one is true for me; for the record, though, none of the crypto ones are my own story.)

The subsets of crypto have developed their own parlance, and the early adopters are known by the lingua franca of “yield farming” and “LPs” (for DeFi) and, for today’s it girl, NFTs, things like “1:1” or the “Floor” or “Up Only.” (To say nothing of the overriding crypto lingo that is, simply, the word “Few.” As in: “Few understand.” As in: “check out this LP from the band Morphine, they’ll be bigger than Pearl Jam. Few.”)

Enter the Rocks and the Bored Apes.

Item: someone paid a lot of money for a picture of a rock. These rocks (all of which can be found here: Ether Rocks ) would be “selling like hotcakes” if there were tons of them but there are only…wait, you’re telling me there are 100 of these? Hold on one second, someone paid $2m for a JPG of a rock?

A couple things should be noted here: one is that this is a limited supply JPG — only 100 total here, which is REALLY limited — and it’s also what’s called a “1:1,” or “1 of 1.”

Other projects have decided to make their artwork limited but not limited to only one piece. Like this collection, from a startup called DADA, which has five or ten of each piece of artwork.

Well, it appears we missed the boat on the rocks. Maybe there’s another project we’re not too late on…ah, I see here there’s something called the Bored Ape Yacht Club and we might be able to get one of these beautiful Bored Apes?

Oh, you have to call Sotheby’s?

Good thing we got in on THIS one early…oh…wait…we missed it.

N.B. these are limited to 10,000 different 1:1s. So it’s possible a lot of people are sitting on a lot of money today; it’s also possible that you aren’t one of those people.

What to do, what to do…

Not Too Late For THESE NFTs, Are We?

Still time to jump into the pool with both feet. Right? Here we go…AlphaBettys!

One of these didn’t cost us too much — 0.19 ETH for this one, number 7888 in the collection — and there’s a chance that the market will heat up. Or maybe it won’t, and we’re holding onto an asset class that’s going to be like our POW Tokens. Time will tell.

Other projects we’ve dived in on include something called Space Shibes (DISCLOSURE: we were part of the early group of investors in this project) and Shael Onions and some sort of panda/raccoon prison/pool party mashup. (See below.)

If You Can’t Make Sense Of It All…

Neither can we. So we launched another project of our own.

The Official Logo

The first couple projects were lower-price experiments with NFTs. We began our journey with the Obvious Statement Collection. Next was the “One Hundred NFTs.” Both were more graphic design projects than art projects.

And the above projects are best described as NFT Avatars: if you get a Crypto Punk, your goal is to use that punk as your PFP (profile photo). (In case you’re wondering, we missed the boat on that one, too.)

Actual NFT artwork, like DADA or the work of someone like Meg Thorpe, is the same animal but a little (or a lot) different.

Our goal with our own project, “Sketches2021,” was to create one-of-a-kind pieces; modern, simple sketches with bright colors. We’d also make it a limited number (we settled on 256 thanks a little to a suggestion from our friend Von who calls himself “Lazy Crypto Guy” on Twitter) and we’d go for a floor of 1 ETH.

We’ve released the first 100 pieces and they’re all on OpenSea as we speak. The entire set is complete — we worked on them during Summer 2021 — and the rest will be launched in short order. Perhaps with a giveaway or two, stay tuned. (For now, we started with the first dozen on the web page here: Sketches2021 on Metacoin.

What’s The Point?

We’ve been asking that question about a lot of what’s in the crypto universe since it launched. Will Bitcoin really disintermediate the banks? Will Ethereum really have a layer that allows for transactions and tokens everywhere? Will these DeFi lending platforms do anything? Will these digital avatar JPEG thingies make me rich?

Time will tell, folks. Time will tell.

Time For Our Own NFT Collection

As we’ve been telling you from the get-go, this site is mostly an experiment. How much of this cryptocurrency stuff is for real? (Turns out…a lot of it.) Does Bitcoin have staying power? (I think the answer to that one is yes.) Should we invest in that “crap”coin? (In most cases, no. In some cases, maybe.)

One Hundred NFTs

So we’re experimenting, again, and this time it’s with NFTs. We’ve bought a few — we’re not “OGs” but we did pick up some two years ago — and sold a couple along the way. No riches gained. But lessons learned.

Our first experiment started a couple months back; we called it the “Obvious Statement Collection” and we enjoyed that; but it’s not the reason for this post. Today, we have a fully baked collection and we’re ready to rock and roll with it.

Behold #OneHundredNFTs

The mission was simple: create 100 pieces of artwork, each different, and each numbered from 1 to 100. No more will be created in this collection of artwork; each item will only have one minted.

The entire collection is linked to here: One Hundred NFTs.

When we soft-launched the collection a month ago, we decided to follow a formula that goes like this (with some exceptions we’ll note):

  • Items 90-100: 0.025 ETH
  • Items 80-89: 0.05 ETH
  • Items 70-79: 0.075 ETH
  • Items 60-69: 0.1 ETH
  • Items 50-59: 0.125 ETH
  • Items 40-49: 0.15 ETH
  • Items 30-39: 0.175 ETH
  • Items 20-29: 0.2 ETH
  • Items 11-19: 0.225 ETH
  • Items 1-10: Auction, with minimum sale price of 1 ETH.

The exceptions:

  • Every fifth item, starting with the 15th, is auctioned (minimum 1 ETH).
  • Every ninth item, starting with the 18th, is to be given away (save for 99, kept by the founding team).
  • Numbers 13, 42, 43, 52, 66, 77, 85-88, 91, and 99 are reserved for “Friends, Family, and Fools.” (We’ve given a couple of those away already.)
  • There’s a TEST item; we’re not sure what to do with that one yet.
  • AND we semi-deliberately lowered the price of a couple of them.

It’s Early, So…We Don’t Know Yet

We’re honestly not all that sure what happens next: we’ll continue, as they say, to test and learn. That means an ad campaign, some more Twitter posts, perhaps some Facebook marketing.

But we like how they look and would love to get your feedback.

Obligatory Blog Post About NFTs

We actually thought about posting an article that was just a bunch of Greeking text: you know, “Lorem ipsum” and the like, over and over again, for paragraph after paragraph. We’d drop in a couple NFT references, maybe say OpenSea with a link to OpenSea, and we’d be sure to include hashtags.

After all, #NFTs are having a moment; so much of a moment that Saturday Night Live tried to explain them on last night’s show.

(Metacoin Grade: B+. Clever, some cute references, just nerdy enough. McKinnon’s Yellen wasn’t too convincing, though.)

Of Course We Have Our Own NFTs

That’s right, it wouldn’t be a crypto bandwagon without everyone jumping on board, and that includes Team Metacoin, whose Obvious Statement collection aims to take advantage of the intersection between memes and finance. For instance, here’s one piece we’re auctioning off:

(If you think we think anyone’s going to bid 10 ETH on this, you misunderestimate us.)

But Why, Though?

A rather apocryphal story from college goes like this: Philosophy professor arrives for final exam, hands out the little blue exam books, and writes the final exam question on the chalkboard. “Why?”

Student opens his exam book, writes his response: “Why not?”

Student gets an A.

Akin to the wise student, most of the involvement in NFTs these days — by everyone from athletes to gamers to Taco Bell — is a little about chasing the shiny object and a lot about sensing an opportunity whose opportunity cost is minimal. While it took Metacoin years to understand what the heck is going on in this whole crypto universe, it really only took a few minutes to create an NFT and plop it on the blockchain. Can you really blame Mark Cuban for leveraging his billion-plus dollars to try to make a billion-plus more?

Here’s a brilliant point from a recent interview with Bloq.com’s Phil Gomes (and you can watch the 5-minute snippet below): People love to collect things. You can’t really do much with a collection of dollars, or Satoshis, but you sure as heck can do a lot with a collection of NFTs — you can admire them, you can collect more, you can brag about their one-of-a-kind-ness.

Where’s This All Going?

Often, you’ll hear Bitcoin and crypto pundits say things like “it’s a marathon, not a sprint,” or “we’re in the first inning of a nine-inning ballgame.”

And you’ll also hear traditional financial pundits ask if you’re old enough to remember the Beanie Babies craze of the 90s, and how kids were bankrolling their college educations with just a few collectibles — but the same pundits are also suggesting that it is just that, a craze whose time was just a blip on the financial timeline.

The answer is probably somewhere in between. Some of these things have sorta kinda jumped the shark. Some others? Real staying power — we think.

And, since this is an obligatory NFT post, we should use an obligatory close:

Watch this space for more.

Interview with Phil Gomes from Bloq

Our HQ is near Chicago, and there’s been no stronger Chicago-area cryptocurrency and blockchain firm than Bloq.com.

The company continues launching products and services and its most-recent #DeFi launch, Vesper, already has north of $300m Total Value Locked (TVL).

Metacoin’s Dave Van de Walle chatted with Bloq’s Phil Gomes recently, and our discussion went nearly an hour with a ton of information shared.

Here’s a link to the full interview:

And, if you just want to watch highlights (which is okay with us), first here’s Phil talking about the industry’s need for yield giving rise to #DeFi:

Then, here’s Phil’s take on NFTs:

We hope you enjoy this lively discussion.

What Hath (The First Six Weeks of) 2021 Wrought?

We’re a few weeks past the GameStop Short Squeeze Apocalypse. Bitcoin has gone from $28,000-and-change on New Year’s Eve to north of $40,000. Altcoins seem to be flying off the shelves. Decentralized Finance is also on fire — if you pick the right one, natch — and the “degenerates” might be having their day.

So…what next?

Here’s some potential calm for the coming storm: a few ideas that, while they’re not financial advice and you need to DYOR (Do Your Own Research), could help you successfully hedge against the coming storms.

1. Just Buy and Hold Bitcoin

We’re reminded of a couple of conversations we’ve had recently with this little nugget of advice; both of the convos centered around “how do I get started?”

Bitcoin is…well…Bitcoin. If it’s not the centerpiece of a portfolio, that’s fine; but it’s also the core concept behind every single coin anyone uses. Without it, no crypto.

Ignore the fact that there’s a guy with a Twitter handle of “@russian_market” and somehow he got a blue checkmark — which gives him some sort of authority, right? — and take a look at his Bitcoin prediction for 2021.

Also consider the fact he may be smoking something.

[TIME FOR A CLEARLY MARKED AFFILIATE LINK: Get some BTC, or other crypto, on Coinbase here. We’ll both get a bonus with a qualifying purchase.]

But, if our Russian friend thinks Bitcoin is doing a 5- or 6x this year, shouldn’t we look down the list and…and…

2. Ethereum Is on Fire

If you’ve followed this space for a few years, one of the things you have learned is this: without Ethereum, crypto apps don’t work. In addition to being a currency unto itself — and one that’s trading at around $1800 as of this writing — on pretty much any of the app-centered parts of crypto, you absolutely have to have “gas” to operate. That gas is ETH. Without ETH, no trades on Uniswap, no liquidity pools on any other #DeFi app, and no yield farming to speak of.

Chart from CoinGecko, Graphics from Metacoin.co

Even if you don’t understand any of that previous paragraph — and, let’s face it, most of that is Greek to the everyday Joe — realize this point: Bitcoin’s market cap is inching towards $1T, and BTC is four-and-a-half times that of ETH; ETH is NEARLY TEN TIMES AS LARGE as the next crypto coin (Cardano, ticker of $ADA). Ethereum is big, it’s very important to the crypto economy, and it is not going away.

3a and 3b. #DeFi Building Blocks

We’ve made a few mistakes here — without a “warts and all” approach, we don’t think this site would have lasted, actually; we’d rather you read up on the $50 we blew on some crypto app than invest in it yourself and lose your own money — and a couple of those mistakes are related to two trades we made with Decentralized Finance (“DeFi”) coins that have caught fire.

First, item 3a. Yearn.finance is $YFI and, defying logic (er, “DeFi-ing logic”), had you gotten in on the ground floor — or, more accurately, the basement; only really truly early adopters got this price — you could conceivably have turned a grand into $1.4M.

Wait, what?

A more accurate description of the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” factor here is that you may have gotten in on perhaps the first or second floor of this high-rise. Our own experience had us taking a chance (by “taking a chance” that means a hundred bucks or so) on YFI when it was priced at $2000 to $3500. So we’re still doing okay. But…

3b.: Uniswap. $UNI. This beaut was an airdrop. Last year, the UNI team decided that the best way to get users on board with its coin was to gift it to ANY account that had used the platform. The airdrop gave 400 coins (or so, as one of ours got a few more than 400) that were valued at around $3 each. We hodled some, sold some others, and it has turned out nicely, hovering above $20 for most of this week. (TBH, though, the fact we sold some a couple weeks ago does irk us more than a little.)

4. Take a Chance on These?

We added a question mark because — AND AGAIN DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH — you are more likely to lose your entire stake in any of these coins than you are to make mad bank (as the kids say).

If you want a couple ideas, though, here goes:

Sushi ($SUSHI), which forked from Uniswap, has done well this year (currently trading in the low teens).

Dogecoin ($DOGE) is the love of folks like Elon Musk; it’s also projected by the Russian guy up there to go up at least 10x this year.

Kimchi ($KIMCHI) was thought to be dead — and may actually BE dead, in that there don’t seem to be any active developers still working on the project; this is called a “Rug Pull” and we explain it a little more in this post — but it is still throwing off triple-digit APY.

N.B. on pools such as KIMCHI: not only are pools like these highly risky, these interest rates will fluctuate wildly; you’re betting that KIMCHI stays stable (it has been ranging from $0.0002 to $0.0004 for the past few months) and that you don’t get totally whacked with growth of the other coin you pool it with. If one of the coins goes way up while the other stays at roughly the same value, you’ll be kinda okay; if one goes up and the other goes way down, you’re going to have some “impermanent loss” from the coin that doesn’t grow. We explain more here:

A lovely YouTube video from Dave

And A Final Few Notes:

We hope this post gives you a few ideas about how to maximize your investments. We need to share a couple other things here:

  1. Past performance (DUH) is not indicative of future results.
  2. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
  3. None of this is financial, legal, or tax advice.
  4. Of the coins mentioned above, we own small positions in the following: $BTC, $ETH, $UNI, $YFI, $SUSHI, and $KIMCHI.