Metacoin

Covering Bitcoin, the Blockchain, Altcoins, and Fintech

NGMI: Why You Should Sell It All And Become A Monk

You don’t really think we’re gonna make it, do you?

Internet sub-cultures are a wonderful thing. Sometime last year, a combination of NFT purveyors and OG crypto traders started to adopt the phrase “gm” as a means of wishing each other “Good Morning.” It’s really a fine line here. Do it right — simply use the two letters, don’t use capitals, don’t repurpose the General Motors logo — and you’re part of the crowd. You’re Shiv and Tom in the screenshot below. Happy. Complete. Enjoying a good time. Celebrating life.

Do it wrong and you’re Kendall Roy, the punch line of the joke everyone but you is in on. (Watch the video. Cringe with us.)

Shoehorning a Succession reference into a blog post notwithstanding, “gm” evolved and “WGMI” was added shortly thereafter — at least by my measurement of the timeline, which could be off a hair, don’t hold me to it, DYOR and all that — to underscore the optimism that the crypto and NFT communities bring to the world. We’re Gonna Make It.

OR “Ain’t No Stopping Us Now,” as both McFadden and Whitehead reminded us sometime around 1979*.

We’re Gonna Make It! The optimist is on board: crypto is the future! NFTs are adding value to the economy and giving artists new life!

The pessimist reads the asterisk below.

* IIRC, the song was adopted by the 1979 Baltimore Orioles as their answer to the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates’ choice of “We Are Family” by Sister Sledge. The Pirates came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Orioles in the 1979 World Series; I won 50 cents off my Dad.

Which Brings Us to Our Point: NGMI

Shortly after either learning about the WGMI acronym or reading about the untimely demise of Messrs McFadden and Whitehead, new lingo was created: NGMI. Not Gonna Make It.

How Bout That Portfolio?

Egads! That kinda stinks, right? We launched the Growth Portfolio a couple weeks back on this here site and our goal was to give you, Gentle Reader, a basket of those coins that can give you the best opportunity for potential success. Big coins, mid-sized coins, up-and-comers that are taking advantage of the NFT-based web3 economy: it’s all there!

And it’s getting pummeled, as is everything else.

The Biggest Dogs

BTC is below $40,000, ETH has dropped below $3000. The end is nigh!

This Blog Post’s Title Is Tongue-in-Cheek

We really don’t know how to make sense of this market the past couple weeks. Our own holdings are down nearly a third since the beginning of the year. We won’t even begin to call a bottom, or else we’ll look like this guy.

Or we could guess that this guy (below, Fed chair Jerome Powell) will bring new people to crypto writ large through the Fed’s (possible) creation of something called “digital cash:” this is one of those “CBDCs” being bandied about in other countries.

We also *could* start talking about new NFT developments — seems like everyone is getting in on the action, right? — and see that the challenges to OpenSea from Crypto.com and Coinbase probably say we’ve only just begun.

Our Point: Don’t Give Up Just Yet. Or Do Give Up.

In any event, here are a couple concepts to embrace:

  • Do Your Own Research. “DYOR” is one of the acronyms we use often around here. Don’t rely on us to tell you what to do. Sniff out a few other folks, check into CT (“Crypto Twitter”) and find out what people are talking about.
  • Experiment. We’ve gotten in early on a couple coins. We’ve also blown it on a couple, too. (Our stake in this one, for instance, was purchased when the price was about 80 cents each.) And we’ve created a series or two (or three) of NFTs, with limited success. But, again, we’re not afraid of experimentation.
  • Enjoy the Ride. The main reason yours truly is involved in this space is because he finds it bloody fascinating. Not every project is going to be eye-catching to you, not every token launch is going to make sense, and not every bit of lingo is going to be clever. If it’s not fun, then maybe it’s not for you?

gm

Keep at it. Or become a monk.

We’ll be here either way.

The 2022 Crypto Growth Portfolio

It started with a tweet, shared in response to an epic Twitter thread.

First, the thread:

Then, my tweet:

The thread from Adam is LONG, so you’ll need to devote some serious time to studying it, or you’ll want to keep referring back to it a little at a time (that’s my plan; Adam shares some great info but it wasn’t until one of my Twitter friends referred to a specific recommendation when I started reading chunks in detail).

My tweet, however, was meant to start some conversations around a simpler potential portfolio you could put together to play this new new new NEW economy of web3 and whatever else is going on.

We present our 2022 Growth Portfolio in the same spirit as past HYPOTHETICAL portfolios: Do Your Own Research, Not Investment Advice, and, well, here’s an interesting way to track what’s going on in Crypto.

What’s Here (vs. What Was in the Tweet)

Caveats first: I made a couple changes to the December 30 post; I decided, to be direct, that $UNI and $CRV didn’t fit with the portfolio. So $AVAX and $SUSHI were inserted instead. The “Rank” column on the left-hand side is taken from this morning and all prices (both 1/1/22 and 1/5/22) were from CoinGecko.com.

Also, I created the list, did the whole price thing, and then…”#BitcoinCrash” or whatever, the afternoon of January 5. So I had to recalibrate based on pricing the afternoon of the 5th. (Hopefully the bloodbath is over.)

The idea goes like this: take a hypothetical $10,000 investment and divide it equally among ten coins. Past portfolios used fewer coins (BRED used just 4) but this might be the best way to spread the risk.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

The first two choices may be obvious: Bitcoin ($BTC) at nearly $900m at this writing and Ethereum ($ETH) at $400+m right now are the Big Two; third-place (by market cap) coin $BNB is 1/4 the size of $ETH. Bitcoin may or may not BE the crypto market, but a coin that is 1/3 the size (roughly) of Apple is probably a force to be reckoned with.

Ethereum is rather formidable in its own right, and, for the purposes of having an entry point into the rest of the coins through something like Metamask, you want some $ETH.

(SIDEBAR: Metamask has ONLY 21 million users? You want to get some $ETH and start using Metamask *if only* for the possibility of an airdrop, a la $ENS.)

Avalanche

Avalanche ($AVAX) traded at (GASP) $3.67 on January 1, 2021. So it’s up nearly 30x in one calendar year. Is it done?

We don’t think so; of course we’re kicking ourselves for being late to the party but it, as a platform, is pretty stellar and may have plenty of room to grow. (Could it pull back? Yes. $24B market cap might seem a little pricey. But $100B isn’t out of the realm and, let’s be honest, if you could 4x a piece of your portfolio, you’d probably be willing to risk a little.

Shiba Inu

Yes, we’ve seen the stories about the kid somewhere who invested a few hundred dollars in Shiba Inu ($SHIB) and now owns his own island. This one, for us, is the last of the famous international meme coins. You’re speculating that there’s a chance the $SHIB community can get this thing to a tenth of a penny, which would mean roughly 30x growth from here. (It would also mean that its value dwarfs the current value of $ETH, so yeah that’s a tall order.)

Realistically, though, expect a couple more bullish cycles of this highly volatile meme coin. Worth taking a chance on.

Crypto.com

You can’t go anywhere without seeing BRAND SPONSORSHIPS IN CRYPTO. FTX has an arena, as does Crypto.com; Crypto.com has Matt Damon, so advantage $CRO, its coin.

AND HERE’S A CLEARLY MARKED AFFILIATE LINK: We can both get a little something if you use this link and sign up and make a qualifying purchase.

This is probably the best way to play “pure retail crypto,” if that’s what you call a brand that pays big bucks to have Matt Damon on board.

Sushi

We pulled out Uniswap specifically and replaced it with Sushi ($SUSHI). We like the platform better and, while Sushi has ebbed and flowed and zigged and zagged — $3.32 on 1/1/21, then a high of $23.38 in March of 2021, and today at $7.76 — its one-stop-shop of Pooling and Staking and Farming is pretty nifty.

DeFi Kingdoms

$JEWEL is the token behind DeFi Kingdoms, which our buddy @TxdoHawk on Twitter talked about yesterday.

If you’re playing the DeFi-meets-Gaming-meets-NFTs space, there are worse places to do so.

Ethereum Name Service

$ENS is the governance token behind the Ethereum Name Service, and it was airdropped in November to users; we did a deeper dive on the site a couple weeks back. We still like it a ton.

Treasure

We talked about this one yesterday, too; $MAGIC is the coin and it is on a roller coaster this year already. (And today, dropping from an all-time high of $4.75 to its current level at $3.61 a token.)

The part above about DeFi Kingdoms playing the intersection of a couple of categories applies here: $MAGIC could very well be a ten-bagger this year (and that would put it just above $1B market cap).

What’s Next?

We plan, as we did in past years with the BRED Portfolio, to keep tabs on this one, with an update at least at the beginning of each quarter. It should be fascinating to see unfold.

‘Not Investment Advice’ — What To Do with $1000 Right Now

So we’re starting an occasional series here called “Not Investment Advice.” We’re reaching out to a few people — in the Bitcorn universe and in other financial worlds — and we’re asking them: “What would you do with $1000 right now?”

This is, as we say in the headline and in the first paragraph here, “Not Investment Advice.”

Our first contestant is my buddy Mike on Twitter (his handle is @TxdoHawk) and below are his thoughts. As the days progress, we’ll add more comments from more commentators.

Mike (@TxdoHawk) Says:

DeFi Kingdoms (JEWEL) – There’s been a lot of discussion of blockchain gaming, Play 2 Earn, and the like in the back half of 2021. Studio after studio have launched flashy 3D trailers promising epic universes to explore. But in the meantime, DeFi Kingdoms has been quietly building out their vision: A gamified decentralized exchange that’s a love letter to a simpler time of 2D, 16-bit RPGs.

I have two rules when it comes to these sorts of investments. One, bet on teams, not projects; it’s clear the DeFi Kingdoms team has put a lot of careful thought into building out their universe. One only has to attend one of their weekly AMAs to get a real sense that this is a group serious about what they do and how they execute. Everything is thought through, the fledgling economy is carefully considered even at these early stages, and they are truly excited to share their ideas with the world.

Rule two is “one line of shipped code is worth more than a hundred roadmap promises.” Here again the team has excelled: In the 4 months since launch they have launched their DEX, hero NFTs that can earn experience and stat boosts, along with the beginnings of questing and the basics of an RPG-style economy where quest rewards can be earned, as well as bought/sold.

Skeptics might point out that the real meat of the game has yet to arrive: Major items on the to-do list are the remaining basic profession quests, along with lands (and their mechanics) as well as a PvP combat system. But what this team has already launched still dwarfs most projects in the space, many that have little more than a hype video and outstretched hands begging for investments.

The easiest way by far to get a foothold in this world is via the liquidity farms, referred to as Gardens. You can be earning JEWEL in a matter of minutes with no further effort required, and the APYs are still generous to this day, although a good chunk of that will be “locked” and released over a further out timeline. But think of that locked JEWEL as a generous call option: by the time you get your grubby paws on it, it could very well be that DeFi Kingdoms has built out one hell of a thriving ecosystem, especially with the newly-announced Crystalvale expansion coming to the Avalanche network.

Dave from Metacoin (That’s Me!) (@TeamMetacoin) Says:

I continue to be in awe of what they’re building at $MAGIC, whose website is Treasure.lol. Really. They have a “dot-lol” web domain.

And this is just from an investor standpoint, as I have yet to ACTUALLY PLAY THE GAME. (What’s Warren Buffett’s line about “investing in what you understand?”)

What I *do* understand is the convergence of NFTs (yes, I’ve created them and bought a bunch), DeFi (been there, done that), and gaming (duh).

They have the “slick video” going for them — but, to Mike’s point above, rather have delivered code, so the jury is still out on all of it — as referenced here:

This one is out of the “better lucky than good” dept. See chart below.

To be honest, this one was part of my “let’s speculate on a couple assets” plan toward the end of 2021. Others may not have done as well; $SPELL and $AVAX each doubled for me (thanks to good timing) but aren’t up multiples like my $MAGIC bet.

Whether the sky is the limit or not is a whole other question. But, and again THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, $MAGIC could be an interesting one to watch in the months to come.

A Month Later: Is $ENS the Perfect* Web3 Token?

If you were lucky enough to grab some $ENS, the token from the Ethereum Name Service project, congrats! (If you haven’t but think you may be entitled to some, there’s still time. Go here: ens.mirror.xyz and take a look.) The token dropped into wallets on November 8 and it’s been nearly a month to watch it unfold, so we thought we’d examine a little further.

The price chart has been a thing to behold: if the average user got a couple hundred $ENS tokens, and those are now trading in the low $40 range, an $8000 or $9000 payday is nothing to sneeze at. Pick out your Christmas gifts — so long as they’re not negatively impacted by the supply chain — and rock on!

Not Bad for Playing on the Internet for Three Years

But, long term, is $ENS all it’s cracked up to be?

First, the Background

We actually talked about this in our post from June 2019 called “Playing the Long Game.” Back then, we didn’t really see the prospect of an airdrop coming, we were just looking for a combination of Ethereum Cybersquatting and Finding A Cool Domain Name.

You can register a bunch and they only cost about $5 a year; we registered several and use one of them as our principal registry.

In theory, we could use one of the ones in our stable, like “jamiedimon.eth,” and set it up to give and receive tokens. (Or you could try to sell it to JP Morgan Chase, which the owner of the above coin appears to be doing.) (Note that it doesn’t take an internet super sleuth to figure out that the author of this post owns jamiedimon.eth.)

If you think of these dot-eth domains as your portal to Web3, the metaverse, AND your crypto holdings…that’s a pretty good way to look at it. Now, let’s do a little analysis.

‘I Promise, It’s Perfect.’

That was the tagline from a golf club that was sold in the early 2000s. Called “The Perfect Club,” it could get you out of trouble, like tight lies, and suggested that mere mortals like me (with my handicap of…well, let’s say it’s not pretty) could use it on shots from about 190 yards out and drop the ball on the green with minimal effort.

I don’t remember seeing an asterisk — * — like the one in the headline of this blog post, but it should have come with one. Especially when the announcer himself said “I Promise, It’s Perfect.”

But the question at hand, and where the asterisk leads us, is whether or not $ENS *may* be the Perfect* Web3 token.

Here are a couple reasons — and yes, this is not financial advice and you should DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and we’re not responsible for your gains or losses — why $ENS could be the on-ramp to Web3.

The Analysts Are Taking Note

Van Eck is kindof a big deal. One of their analysts did a pretty solid analysis of what’s going on with Ethereum domain names, the bread-and-butter of the ENS entry point to the rest of the investment world.

We’ll link to Matthew Sigel’s post here, and we found it more than a little interesting (in a good way) that Sigel compares the ENS domain business to Verisign. (We also didn’t realize Verisign was such a stud.)

Van Eck’s Sigel summarizes the dot-eth trend better than we could right here:

Plus the Airdrop Means Fewer People “Heading for the Exits”

Here’s another aspect to look at: when you have projects that make people rich very early — not just crypto or Web3, but IPOs, too — you always run the risk of a “cut and run.” For instance, a Junior Software Developer signs up for a gig at a startup, is given some options, and the startup IPOs. Whenever the lockup expires, the developer gets bored, has high-six or low-seven figures in cash, and heads straight for the exit.

Because of an airdrop that didn’t end up with tons of rich people, and with no VCs taking part, the result is that nobody (aside from the founders, who are in this for the long haul) got super rich. The lack of “F*** You Money” makes this a potential winner.

AND…It’s a DAO

This would be the third reason this is so huge: governance.

DAOs are Decentralized Autonomous Organizations. Simply put, they’re designed to run with limited involvement from management, delegating votes on a variety of governance issues to a team. To collect your $ENS tokens you had to vote on a series of proposals and select a delegate to vote on your behalf.

They’ve built a black box and the management of that black box is in the hands of the team of delegates, but proposals to change the way the black box functions take a majority. And some of it is immutable — like the DAO can’t really go out of business — so they’re definitely looking at this with a decades-long time horizon.

Should You Buy at This Price?

Again, this is not financial recommendation, and do your own research.

But the token itself is right around the top 100 in market cap and it’s just north of $1B. Compare and contrast that with tokens like $SHIB (~$19B market cap as of this writing) and take a look at the functionality of $ENS in comparison with other tokens ($SHIB has a cult-like following and has rocketed upwards, but is it really THAT valuable?).

$ENS might not be a bad bet in the grand scheme.

Good luck.

Rocks and Bored Apes; AlphaBettys and Prison Raccoons; and Our Own #Sketches2021

Welcome to the wonderful world of NFTs. The alternate title for this post is “NFTs are crazy, right?”

As we have discussions with people in and around the cryptocurrency universe, we feel we’re almost always needing to provide evidence of our own bona fides. Typical conversations:

“Oh, you got $4,000 from Uniswap? Well, have you ever made $150,000 off of airdrops?”

“I bought my first Bitcoin at $20!”

“Gee, you shouldn’t have sold your $ETH; I met Vitalik once and he’s the real deal.”

These discussions remind me of the typical indie-rock tropes, like “well, I saw Arcade Fire when I was a student at McGill,” or “I saw Fishbone at the Lost Horizon in Syracuse in 1991.” (The second one is true for me; for the record, though, none of the crypto ones are my own story.)

The subsets of crypto have developed their own parlance, and the early adopters are known by the lingua franca of “yield farming” and “LPs” (for DeFi) and, for today’s it girl, NFTs, things like “1:1” or the “Floor” or “Up Only.” (To say nothing of the overriding crypto lingo that is, simply, the word “Few.” As in: “Few understand.” As in: “check out this LP from the band Morphine, they’ll be bigger than Pearl Jam. Few.”)

Enter the Rocks and the Bored Apes.

Item: someone paid a lot of money for a picture of a rock. These rocks (all of which can be found here: Ether Rocks ) would be “selling like hotcakes” if there were tons of them but there are only…wait, you’re telling me there are 100 of these? Hold on one second, someone paid $2m for a JPG of a rock?

A couple things should be noted here: one is that this is a limited supply JPG — only 100 total here, which is REALLY limited — and it’s also what’s called a “1:1,” or “1 of 1.”

Other projects have decided to make their artwork limited but not limited to only one piece. Like this collection, from a startup called DADA, which has five or ten of each piece of artwork.

Well, it appears we missed the boat on the rocks. Maybe there’s another project we’re not too late on…ah, I see here there’s something called the Bored Ape Yacht Club and we might be able to get one of these beautiful Bored Apes?

Oh, you have to call Sotheby’s?

Good thing we got in on THIS one early…oh…wait…we missed it.

N.B. these are limited to 10,000 different 1:1s. So it’s possible a lot of people are sitting on a lot of money today; it’s also possible that you aren’t one of those people.

What to do, what to do…

Not Too Late For THESE NFTs, Are We?

Still time to jump into the pool with both feet. Right? Here we go…AlphaBettys!

One of these didn’t cost us too much — 0.19 ETH for this one, number 7888 in the collection — and there’s a chance that the market will heat up. Or maybe it won’t, and we’re holding onto an asset class that’s going to be like our POW Tokens. Time will tell.

Other projects we’ve dived in on include something called Space Shibes (DISCLOSURE: we were part of the early group of investors in this project) and Shael Onions and some sort of panda/raccoon prison/pool party mashup. (See below.)

If You Can’t Make Sense Of It All…

Neither can we. So we launched another project of our own.

The Official Logo

The first couple projects were lower-price experiments with NFTs. We began our journey with the Obvious Statement Collection. Next was the “One Hundred NFTs.” Both were more graphic design projects than art projects.

And the above projects are best described as NFT Avatars: if you get a Crypto Punk, your goal is to use that punk as your PFP (profile photo). (In case you’re wondering, we missed the boat on that one, too.)

Actual NFT artwork, like DADA or the work of someone like Meg Thorpe, is the same animal but a little (or a lot) different.

Our goal with our own project, “Sketches2021,” was to create one-of-a-kind pieces; modern, simple sketches with bright colors. We’d also make it a limited number (we settled on 256 thanks a little to a suggestion from our friend Von who calls himself “Lazy Crypto Guy” on Twitter) and we’d go for a floor of 1 ETH.

We’ve released the first 100 pieces and they’re all on OpenSea as we speak. The entire set is complete — we worked on them during Summer 2021 — and the rest will be launched in short order. Perhaps with a giveaway or two, stay tuned. (For now, we started with the first dozen on the web page here: Sketches2021 on Metacoin.

What’s The Point?

We’ve been asking that question about a lot of what’s in the crypto universe since it launched. Will Bitcoin really disintermediate the banks? Will Ethereum really have a layer that allows for transactions and tokens everywhere? Will these DeFi lending platforms do anything? Will these digital avatar JPEG thingies make me rich?

Time will tell, folks. Time will tell.