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Portfolio

Jan 21 2022

NGMI: Why You Should Sell It All And Become A Monk

You don’t really think we’re gonna make it, do you?

Internet sub-cultures are a wonderful thing. Sometime last year, a combination of NFT purveyors and OG crypto traders started to adopt the phrase “gm” as a means of wishing each other “Good Morning.” It’s really a fine line here. Do it right — simply use the two letters, don’t use capitals, don’t repurpose the General Motors logo — and you’re part of the crowd. You’re Shiv and Tom in the screenshot below. Happy. Complete. Enjoying a good time. Celebrating life.

Do it wrong and you’re Kendall Roy, the punch line of the joke everyone but you is in on. (Watch the video. Cringe with us.)

Shoehorning a Succession reference into a blog post notwithstanding, “gm” evolved and “WGMI” was added shortly thereafter — at least by my measurement of the timeline, which could be off a hair, don’t hold me to it, DYOR and all that — to underscore the optimism that the crypto and NFT communities bring to the world. We’re Gonna Make It.

OR “Ain’t No Stopping Us Now,” as both McFadden and Whitehead reminded us sometime around 1979*.

We’re Gonna Make It! The optimist is on board: crypto is the future! NFTs are adding value to the economy and giving artists new life!

The pessimist reads the asterisk below.

* IIRC, the song was adopted by the 1979 Baltimore Orioles as their answer to the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates’ choice of “We Are Family” by Sister Sledge. The Pirates came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Orioles in the 1979 World Series; I won 50 cents off my Dad.

Which Brings Us to Our Point: NGMI

Shortly after either learning about the WGMI acronym or reading about the untimely demise of Messrs McFadden and Whitehead, new lingo was created: NGMI. Not Gonna Make It.

How Bout That Portfolio?

Egads! That kinda stinks, right? We launched the Growth Portfolio a couple weeks back on this here site and our goal was to give you, Gentle Reader, a basket of those coins that can give you the best opportunity for potential success. Big coins, mid-sized coins, up-and-comers that are taking advantage of the NFT-based web3 economy: it’s all there!

And it’s getting pummeled, as is everything else.

The Biggest Dogs

BTC is below $40,000, ETH has dropped below $3000. The end is nigh!

This Blog Post’s Title Is Tongue-in-Cheek

We really don’t know how to make sense of this market the past couple weeks. Our own holdings are down nearly a third since the beginning of the year. We won’t even begin to call a bottom, or else we’ll look like this guy.

Or we could guess that this guy (below, Fed chair Jerome Powell) will bring new people to crypto writ large through the Fed’s (possible) creation of something called “digital cash:” this is one of those “CBDCs” being bandied about in other countries.

Federal Reserve weighs creating 'digital cash' that would allow direct transfers without a bank https://t.co/fS4pnvhNh1

— Daily Mail US (@DailyMail) January 21, 2022

We also *could* start talking about new NFT developments — seems like everyone is getting in on the action, right? — and see that the challenges to OpenSea from Crypto.com and Coinbase probably say we’ve only just begun.

Our Point: Don’t Give Up Just Yet. Or Do Give Up.

In any event, here are a couple concepts to embrace:

  • Do Your Own Research. “DYOR” is one of the acronyms we use often around here. Don’t rely on us to tell you what to do. Sniff out a few other folks, check into CT (“Crypto Twitter”) and find out what people are talking about.
  • Experiment. We’ve gotten in early on a couple coins. We’ve also blown it on a couple, too. (Our stake in this one, for instance, was purchased when the price was about 80 cents each.) And we’ve created a series or two (or three) of NFTs, with limited success. But, again, we’re not afraid of experimentation.
  • Enjoy the Ride. The main reason yours truly is involved in this space is because he finds it bloody fascinating. Not every project is going to be eye-catching to you, not every token launch is going to make sense, and not every bit of lingo is going to be clever. If it’s not fun, then maybe it’s not for you?

gm

Keep at it. Or become a monk.

We’ll be here either way.

Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Growth Portfolio, NFT, Non-Fungible Tokens, Portfolio · Tagged: McFadden & Whitehead, NFTs, NFTShill, Succession

Jun 17 2020

Two Automatic Portfolios: Which One’s Better?

Ages ago, we created a crypto investment plan we called the “BRED Portfolio.” Then, this year, we added a different one that we called the “Balance Portfolio.” It’s time again to look at the tale of the tape: which one is performing better so far?

BRED: The OG of “Set it and forget it”

Here, as background, is what it looked like at the beginning of 2020:

Each bucket gets $2500

Flash forward to this morning and here is the YTD scorecard:

Nearly 48% YTD isn’t bad.

Of note when looking at the above percentages: since we factored in the forks at the beginning of the year (with the value of each “class” including a percentage based on the January 1 price), the percentages for the BTC and ETH class on the whole is a little lower than the percentage growth for the “big guns” in the class. BTC is up 32.54% as a class; ETH up 79.50%.

This leads us to ask whether or not we should incorporate the forks next year. We’ll keep an eye on that.

The BRED Portfolio is designed to be a hedge, of sorts; if BTC and XRP don’t move in lockstep with each other, that’s a good thing for you. They haven’t so far this year.

Bottom-lining this for ya: if you had put $10,000 into this portfolio at the beginning of the year, you’d have close to $15,000 today. So how does that compare to the “Balance” portfolio?

Balance 2020: Not too shabby, either

Before we look at the YTD performance here, let’s see how we set this up to start the year:

2020 Crypto Balance Portfolio
How we’d allocate a balanced portfolio in the new year.

With half with big guns BTC and ETH (no forks) and the other half in five different assets that provide an interesting variety, this portfolio is designed to be more of a hedge than the BRED portfolio.

And…how is it actually doing?

Balance lags, but not by much…

N.B. We’re in love with VET; we think VeChain is inking the right kinds of “Blockchain as a Service” deals and our own personal crypto holdings have a decent chunk in VET.

PAX Gold is another interesting one, in that it aims to mirror the price of gold. Gold isn’t having a moment, yet, but 15% YTD is, again, nothing to sneeze at.

Reminder: none of what you find here is meant to be investment advice. Do Your Own Research, consult with professionals and, especially with crypto, don’t invest more than you are prepared to lose.

AFFILIATE LINK: If you’re interested in getting started with crypto, one really compelling way right now is with Crypto.com. They’re offering cash back on a crypto-based debit card with certain qualifying purchases.

Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, BRED, Portfolio

Jan 18 2020

A Balanced 2020 Crypto Portfolio

We struggled with this one for a little while, and you can’t really blame us: 2019 was a meh year for crypto, and our typical portfolio wouldn’t exactly be the way to go for 2020. Plus, a bunch of new entrants — both projects and categories — caught our eye last year.

Our first question: Does the BRED Portfolio makes sense anymore? Given the fact that Bitcoin had a good year and the others didn’t, does the mix of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple’s XRP, and Dash still give you the kind of portfolio that will propel your crypto investments into the stratosphere?

ALSO, it may not be about the “into the stratosphere” anymore for you. And that’s okay. In any event, we have to figure out if there’s another way to do this.

First Up…How Did BRED Do?

Glad you asked: weird year for sure. Let’s look at the numbers:

2019 BRED Portfolio
Down a shade, but not insane, but…

So, in the interest of consistency, here’s what the 2020 BRED Portfolio would look like.

The 2020 BRED Portfolio

However, we don’t think this is the kind of portfolio to focus on for the year(s) ahead. We’ll give a couple reasons why we *think* there’s a rebalancing ahead.

  1. Bitcoin still makes sense, but Ethereum less so.
  2. Ripple is working on a ton of partnerships, but hasn’t grown like before.
  3. Dash didn’t catch fire on the consumer-facing front.
  4. Way too much else going on.
2020 Crypto Balance Portfolio

Let’s Follow the Trends and Create a New Portfolio

Without further ado, here you go: the 2020 Crypto Balance Portfolio.

2020 Crypto Balance Portfolio
She’s a beauty…

So, what have we done here?

First Up, MOAR Bitcoin

If a stock went up 90% in a year, would you still want it in your portfolio? Or would you take profits?

Good question, and we address that at least a little by (a) keeping BTC in the portfolio and (b) ratcheting it up to 30% of the overall $10,000.

While I wouldn’t go so far as this commentator who thinks Bitcoin will go to $400,000 after its “halving” (when the mining rewards for Bitcoin are cut in half) in May, Bitcoin has cemented itself as the blue chip of cryptos during the past couple years.

You’ll also see that, in this Crypto Balance portfolio, we’ve ignored the forks. If there are notable forks this year, we can take those into account; but “forkening” isn’t that much of a deal the past couple years.

Ethereum, Still, Has a Role

We’ve done some writing on these pages about projects like Megacryptopolis; you can’t play with any of those NFTs, and you can’t trade any assets on OpenSea without ETH that’s in a Metamask wallet (or some other ETH wallet).

Ethereum is really a two-sided coin (ha!) — with quite a few bearish cases on the internet, and a few bullish ones, too. We think the bullish case outweighs the bearish case, though. We’re keeping it in, but dropping it down to 20%.

About the Other Five…

If our goal is a “balanced” portfolio…uh…what the heck does that mean?

In our case, we achieve some level of balance with the other 5 assets in this portfolio, each at ten percent:

XRP — The coin from Ripple still aims to underpin bank transfers, a la SWIFT. Also, if you still believe in the long-term prospects of the project, under a quarter per coin is not a bad deal at all.

MCO — We lurrve this coin. (That’s a technical term, like HODL.) Not just because you can get some for free just by jumping through a couple of hoops [DISCLOSURE ALERT: AFFILIATE LINKS IN THAT ARTICLE] but because they are doing the regulatory thing correctly. We’re American, and bank laws are pretty important to follow.

EOS — I’ll admit to still being really skeptical, but also see the benefits of owning some EOS as an anti-ETH.

VeChain (VET) — This has potential, thanks to the Toolchain, to be the standard corporate “Blockchain-as-a-Service” solution. Partnerships right and left throughout the world. Tremendously undervalued.

VET Website Screenshot
VET’s website tells you what they’re up to.

PAX Gold (PAXG) — One really clever idea is to tie the price of a coin to an ounce of gold — so it’s like Tether, but with gold behind it. Also helps the “gold bugs” get into crypto while helping the crypto bugs get into gold.

And…There You Go

Whether this will catch fire like the 2017 edition of BRED or stall like the 2018 edition of BRED or do nothing like the 2019 edition of BRED…all that remains to be seen. But the plan is that we’ll track both all year and see what happens from there.

Stay tuned. 2020 should be interesting.

Written by David Van de Walle · Categorized: Bitcoin, BRED, EOS, Ethereum, Investing, MCO, Portfolio, VeChain · Tagged: Bitcoin, btc, EOS, ETH, Ethereum, MCO

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