Investing

Jan 17 2018

Our 2018 Crypto Investment Plan

EDITOR’S NOTE: With the activities of mid-January, such as the sharp pullback of pretty much all coins, plus the crash of Bitconnect, we’ve updated this post on January 17.

Anyone else feel really blessed and ready to make it a phenomenal year?

Frankly, we feel like we hit the ground sprinting in 2018. Part of it was due to a little bit of luck, part of it was due to some planning, and part of it was due to the discipline to just hang tight for a while.

For instance, we made our own luck with a couple of timely picks; we also called ourselves HODLers on at least a couple of occasions – ones where weaker hands might have folded up the tents.

But we screwed up a couple places, too: our first ever trade with DASH meant that we took profits of 25% off the table and closed out our entire interest. Let’s never speak of this again.

Starting with a Bang

My #crypto portfolio is only up 55% since 12/31.

What am I doing wrong? pic.twitter.com/BxAqbDmFeX

— Dave Van de Walle (@Area224) January 4, 2018

We’ve gone on and on about Risk Management here. And we also feel that we’ve experimented at least enough with some concepts – you can read a whole bunch more over at the Passive Income page on this site – to at least have a firm understanding of what could work, what won’t work, and what things are worth our time.

Finally, we think we’ve gotten a good chunk of knowledge from some others on the web – especially “Crypto Twitter,” which has been a wonderful world for us so far (with thanks to some characters like @BambouClub, @crazy_crypto, @haydentiff, and @BryceWeiner, who all share their approaches to coins and tokens and various crypto ecosystems – and all bring rather distinctive POVs).

It was BambouClub himself who challenged us to put a plan to paper – and stick to it. We had the plan to paper part sketched out – but we needed to formalize it and put it in writing.

And the “stick to it” thing we’re also going to TRY to do. More to come on that…

Enough Background: SHARE THE PLAN!!!

Behold, our 2018 Crypto Investment Plan. With the usual caveats:

This is not individual advice
Invest at your own risk
Seek professional help for things like taxes, accounting, legal, and the like
“DYOR” – if you learned one acronym last year, it’s that one. Do Your Own Research.

Let’s get started with the $1,250,000 question:

Should BRED Be Part of Your Plan?

How quickly can we answer that with a resounding YES?

If you read our post from New Year’s Day, you know how well you would have done with BRED – that combo of Bitcoin, Ripple’s XRP token, Ethereum, and Dash – to the tune of wild, crazy, insane returns from buying and holding for one whole year.

This was, and still is, probably as close to a Bitcoin Mutual Fund as you can get. But, for 2018, it needed to be tweaked, to accommodate for a couple things, including main Bitcoin forks, the Ethereum fork from more than a year ago, and the crazy returns from Ripple (meaning that you are buying fewer XRP tokens than you had a year ago, because they’ve gone from penny stock to blue chip holding rather quickly). Hence:

2018 BRED Allocation — Reweighted to start the new year

We’ll answer the “how much?” question a little later; but now that the overall yes/no question on BRED is settled, we probably need to agree on an altcoin strategy, too: everything down the totem pole that could make sense to be part of the mix.

What About the Altcoins?

Our approach to altcoins isn’t random – we spent most of 2017 learning which sorts of projects appealed to us, and which ones had the potential to turn into something that replicates the success of the BRED portfolio. They’re somewhat diverse – big and small, different kinds of projects – and, as you can see from this chart, they also run the gamut from multi-billion-dollar projects to tiny-but-poised. Here’s a snapshot of our eight coins – but remember to DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As we revisit some of the highlights and lowlights from 2017, we know that our biggest mistakes were when we chased quick returns and weren’t in love with the project. In these cases, we think these projects have tremendous potential, and it’s likely a rather diverse enough group to spread out our risk.

And we lucked out on a couple: ADA and HTML have both gone up at least 5 times since we bought in, and TRX was a gift courtesy of a Binance airdrop, so we held on and bought more.

Where we think we might see some real growth, though, is toward the bottom of the list. We’ve held COSS for long enough to be officially called #HODLers – “Hold On for Dear Life” – and our stake has allowed us to realize gains on a USD basis from Bitcoin’s price spike. And BURST has us so crazy excited: we were working on a blog post IN JUNE about the potential for that coin…before all of its developments.

There needs to be room in the portfolio for more, though. Let’s briefly address Passive Income next.

Our Changing Passive Income Approach

Well, the breaking news as we update this post goes as follows:

We took some lumps and lost some BTC (and ETH, and even some LTC) investing in passive income programs that went belly up. One saving grace: we have investigated mining and staking, and that’s where our Passive Income for 2018 will take us.

Genesis Mining will be where re reinvest in this category, and we’ll also invest in coins where there’s passive interest that pays – like HTMLCoin, for instance – and also check out inexpensive mining for coins like BURST.

There’s one more bucket, but what do we call it and what do we use it for?

Take A Flier, Please

We were able to confirm on Investopedia that we’re using the term correctly, so we’re calling this category “Fliers.” This includes:

Coins that we invested in, lost interest in, but didn’t totally get rid of (LBRY is one)
ICOs or other projects that are either thinly traded or haven’t fully launched (Exscudo, POW)
Airdrops (we’re still finding coins that we were granted that…maybe might be good projects eventually)
“Others” – serving as a catch-all term for anything else that doesn’t fit neatly into a category.

We now have four different buckets – so it’s time to figure out the right allocation for each.

Here It Is: Our 2018 Crypto Investment Plan

Let us explain what’s going on here. We decided to allocate in more of a “barbell strategy” – heavily weighted toward core coins on one side (40% BRED) and toward alts on the other (the 40% Alts category). The “Target” column is the amount we want to see our allocations get to – but, as you can see in the “3-Jan” column, in some respects we have a ways to go.

Coins that we specifically hope to make up ground with we’ve highlighted in pink: we will add where we can, either through profits on something like Bitconnect, or, if we end up with an extreme winner, taking some profits from that coin or token.

Right now, we need to reweight a little away from Alts (59%) and toward BRED (22%); we also know that the Fliers are not an exact science, since some of those airdrops aren’t worth much – but could be worth a ton someday – and others don’t hit the market for a bit, so pricing guesstimations are just that. (In those cases, by the way, we have simply used the value of the investments we’ve made as the value of the coin right now. Exscudo, for instance, claimed to sell at an equivalent of $2, so we calculated the BTC price and offset that for any re-distribution of tokens that occurred later.)

Why They’re “Goals”

We agreed to put this on paper, but we also didn’t want to upset the apple cart. That’s why we’re calling them goals: we aim to get our overall crypto portfolio as close to the weighting as we can by February 1.

But we also give ourselves the leeway to make changes as we see fit. For instance, TRX cannot possibly sustain its run, can it? XRP can’t have anywhere near the run it had last year, could it? And so on, and so forth: while we don’t think we’ll deviate from BRED, we might make a change or two to the Alt portion of the portfolio.

And we can’t be held to a strict “40-40-10-10” formula. (If, in theory, we did that in 2017 with BRED but decided to reallocate each quarter, who’s to say what that would have done to our approach?)

Our Suggestion For You…

Again, this is not individual advice, and seek the counsel of those wise folks in your spheres of influence.

However, this has been a great exercise for us, the act of getting things on paper. We’ve questioned a couple of our own assumptions, and we’ve also had to ask ourselves just how much risk we want to shoulder.

In this vein, we think we’re prepared for 2018, come what may.

We’d love to hear your thoughts.

Nov 26 2017

My Morning Bitcoin Ritual

There’s a certain power to morning rituals, to routines, and to doing the same thing every day – you find yourself ready for a variety of challenges, and, if you’re a morning person like me, you can hit the ground running by 8:30, with your priority list or to do list on the road to being conquered.

If you’ve followed any of the self-help gurus on the internet over the past ten years or so, you know there is almost a cottage industry built around productivity. So take these with a grain of salt…what works for me may not work for you.

In any event, here’s the ritual I follow, with the specific crypto mantra that has helped me in the past eight months.

Before you ask “who are you and why should we listen to you?” – let’s just say that I’m pretty happy with the little crypto empire I’m starting to build. But I have a lot to learn…which is why you’ll see a good chunk of this devoted to research.

Step One: Fire Up a Specific Set of Sites

I have the following sites set to open up on Chrome:

Gmail
Google Finance
Metacoin – yes, this site is one of the first things I check, to get statistics, read any comments, etc.
Twitter – where, in addition to the Team Metacoin account, I spend most of my time tweeting under my Area 224 account, where I have tweeted for close to ten years.
Poloniex (more on that in a moment)
CoinMarketCap (which gets ripped on by quite a few people, I know…as it appears they really don’t vet their ads very well)
LinkedIn (checking in on professional network stuff there)
ESPN (well, duh), and
POW Token – as I’m semi-obsessed with this one getting off the ground. That’s an AFFILIATE LINK over there. Use it and I get some bonus tokens, but, if this one gets to a penny a token in the next year, they’re handing you a few hundred dollars.

Step Two: Open Up Your Spreadsheet(s)

You of course have a system for charting your holdings – I use Excel, but there are scores of ways to keep track of what you hold and that’s okay.

In my case, though, my Excel systems have helped me to chart everything that’s important in crypto:

What I hold
What I paid for it
What I sold it for
What revenue has been realized from any Passive Income Programs (PIPs).

YOU HAVE TO HAVE THIS INFORMATION FOR TAX PURPOSES. IT IS PART OF YOUR RESPONSIBILITY.

I’m an American: I’m not going to get into a debate here on taxation and cryptocurrency – and, as always, we have advised you to get professional help from an accountant and tax advisor. Don’t take this responsibility lightly – if you want the RIGHT to get into cryptocurrency, you have the responsibility to pay your taxes and do everything that is legally required of you. Soapbox speech over.

Step Three: Go Line By Line

Here’s where I go down the list and track where my investments are. The ones that aren’t PIPs can be tracked by a combo of Poloniex and CoinMarketCap.

My holdings might change, but my HODLings aren’t changing very often. Here’s a list of the ones that I track currently:

Bitcoin
Ethereum
Ripple
Litecoin
NEO
Walton
ChainLink
COSS (to buy this one, you need to go to coss.io).

Weekly or so, I update the BRED Portfolio – I’ll tweet results and sometimes update the blog, too.

Next, I check the PIPs that I’m currently involved with. Note that this list is MUCH SHORTER than it used to be:

Bitconnect. That’s an AFFILIATE LINK; however, I’ve begun divesting from my holdings there, using a three-step process to take profits. Instead of reinvesting daily profits, I’m (1) taking them in Bitconnect coins, (2) trading them for BTC, and (3) moving that BTC to another wallet.
Hexabot. We talked about this on the blog and had our AFFILIATE LINK REMOVED ON DECEMBER 5.
Chain.group. Another one I just heard about, and I have a small stake. Another AFFILIATE LINK.

I track all of my results in the main spreadsheet, and keep track of my total once per day – any more than that and you’re gonna drive yourself nuts.

One thing that I include on my spreadsheet is my tally on BTC Heat – which, yes, is a BTC game. Use that link to get started and it helps me grow my number of spins.

I mentioned POW Token above (still time to get yours with this AFFILIATE LINK) and one other thing that I’ve done to add to my stake is “validate” users. This can be an investment of a half hour or so; but, lately, they’re slowing down how many new users they bring in, so there has been less validation to be done.

I also check the price of POW on EtherDelta; if there’s more of a pullback or I’m feeling frisky, I’ll grab a few more for cheap.

Step Four: Twitter & Research

These two, believe it or not, can go hand in hand. That’s right: “Crypto Twitter” is great, and you can get great ideas about what coins you might want to research. Take it ALL with a grain of salt – you’re not going to get rich just because one random person tweets a coin’s cashtag and tells you it will “moon.”

People that I follow:

Sherlock – this guy is good, clever, and on the cutting edge with quite a few trades
Bambou Club – somewhere near the Adriatic; he’s also active on Medium with a periodic update on what’s going on in his world
Notsofast – trader, miner, lover of altcoins (though he uses a different word for them)
Tiffany Hayden – knows XRP backwards and forwards, but shares info about the tech side, too.

I could go on (and reserve the right to update this list down the road) but the point is that you pick a few people that share cool stuff and start hearing what they have to say. And, in my case, that means researching coins and platforms they are talking about.

Try to use a “10th Man” approach, too – if you see quite a few people talking about how great a coin is, or how this next ICO will make people rich overnight, figure out what could possibly go wrong with it. You might end up talking yourself out of making a semi-foolish investment.

A Note on YouTube

Right now, I can’t recommend any YouTubers that talk crypto. Why? My feed seems to be dominated by certain people who talk incessantly about their favorite passive income platform – it’s getting old, getting annoying, and extremely one-dimensional.

I’ll make more videos of my own in the future, but I actually want to add value when I do so – not just talk about my own multi-level marketing abilities.

AND…You Can Do All This In 30 Minutes!

That’s right, whether crypto is your day job or just a side hustle, you really only need to spend 30 minutes on this exercise. It will put you in the right frame of mind and get you ready to build your crypto fortune.

Go get ’em!

Aug 10 2017

On Testing and Learning

If you think you have all the answers, you probably haven’t asked the right questions.

I don’t know where I first heard that maxim, but boy does it apply to cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and this learning experiment of ours.

What…you don’t think this is an experiment? This entire space is an experiment: the whole concept of Bitcoin is only eight years old, and the goal posts continue to move. We’re ten days into August of 2017, a month that began with The Great Fork and launched a new currency that seemed headed for the stratosphere – and then came back down to earth – and then the mother ship that launched it decided it would reach for new heights.

If you’re not Testing and Learning, then you’re probably doomed to fail. And if you think you have all the answers, start asking more questions.

Exhibit A: Altcoin Du Jour

Each day brings with it a new “Altcoin” that will take off – if you believe the Twitter experts – and if you don’t get in on the ground floor of this coin, be prepared to cry a river once those early adopters pump it and sell it for their Lamborghini. (We’ve taken to calling them “Lambo Coins,” because that seems to be the auto of choice for the crypto people.)

But…

The prevailing wisdom – and I tend to believe this – is that, of the hundreds of coins and tokens out there, once we’re past bubble territory, a handful of them will be worth something. The rest? Dust. Vapor. Ones and zeros.

We’re not near bubble territory yet, though – and that still creates opportunities for even the most casual of traders.

Which is where the “test and learn” concept comes in. If you’ve been following this site at all, you know we have a couple of hypothetical portfolios; these experiments have ranged from one that does okay (the Hedge Fund) all the way up to one that would have made tons of money (the BRED Portfolio).

You also know that we’ve shared some other experiments – posts on coins that COULD go stratospheric, and lists of coins that we think might be good fits for a more speculative portfolio.

And these range in success from okay down to meh.

Because it’s an experiment.

Exhibit B: Passive Crypto Income

That’s probably the best category to call these other things, lending/interest platforms like Bitconnect (which we told you about a couple of times and which we’re still monitoring; use that AFFILIATE LINK to get started if you want to try it out for yourself) and its competitor Control Finance (which we’re investigating as we speak; it appears to be free to sign up, so we have an AFFILIATE LINK over there for that one, too). Or there’s a mining program called Microhash that we just signed up for yesterday. (AFFILIATE LINK.)

Since we’re still learning, we’re asking some questions about these particular platforms:

Are they legitimate?
Are the revenue projections realistic?
What’s the potential for anyone to take their blocks and go home?

Answers:

Well, they appear to be…as far as we can tell from what we’re finding on the internet…but things aren’t always what they seem, right?
Well, that’s an interesting question…we don’t know, and it might take a while for us to find out.
We’re quite familiar with Mt. Gox – that’s ALWAYS a risk.

The issues, for this site and your intrepid reporter/guinea pig, stem from sustainability – are these platforms really creating systems that can allow someone to passively, casually, create the kind of income that could be life-changing? And, if they do, can they continue ad infinitum? Or will there be a crash and burn element that is going to get ugly?

The more that I study this space, the more I believe the following:

Bitcoin, the blockchain, and the cryptocurrency industry together create the potential for the largest transfer of wealth in human history.

But…it is still an experiment.

What’s The Point?

Sitting on the sidelines may be an option for you. Some people do prefer just casually going about their business while small changes happen around them; and maybe those small changes won’t turn into big changes.

But for us…the answers are out there, and we plan on testing and learning and asking more questions as the days go by.

Join us.

Jul 13 2017

DIY: Your Bitcoin Hedge Fund

It’s time to update our Bitcoin Hedge Fund, which we told you about back in May. Before we do that, though, this reminder: we DO have a Facebook page, we ARE on Twitter, and we’ve been spending a ton of time over on Steemit. We’d love to have you join in on the conversation in any or all of the three.

And away we go…

Hedge Fund Background

First of all, the typical standard disclaimer: do your own research. We’re not responsible for gains or losses. Get legal, tax, and accounting advice. Don’t invest more than you can lose. These are volatile-as-f markets, y’all. Really volatile, especially the past several days, where there was at least a little bloodletting and panic.

Anyway, our original post said we’d park a small amount – in our hypothetical fund, we chose a guy named “Herbie” and his hedge fund (“Herbie’s Hedge Fund”) had $10,000 to invest. We chose this amount as ten percent of his investment capital. Is that a good amount? A bad amount? Too high? Too low?

Heck, that’s for you to decide. If you’re Wences Cesares, you’d put 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin and leave it there for several years. That may turn out to be good advice, or it may turn out to completely fizzle.

What We Started With

Our hedge fund had a nice mix of established coins – the BRED portfolio, of course – as well as some emerging coins and a recent ICO. Here’s what it looked like then:

If you have more than a passing understanding of the markets we’re in, you might think every one of those coins has gone up since May 1. And you’d be almost 100% right: using today’s prices, grabbed from CoinMarketCap.com, here’s what you’d have:

Some notes on what we see here:

Bitcoin: Holding Steady

Bitcoin is doing well enough, and it started as 30% of the portfolio – for reasons detailed in May, but, if it’s becoming the reserve cryptocurrency, then yeah, you want a good chunk of it.

What will be interesting, though, is where it goes in the next 20 days or so. Hard Fork, Soft Fork, stuff that even we admit we’re paying attention to but not studying THAT closely – the August 1 deadline date for Segwit-related movement on the part of the BTC-hemoth will mean movement in price not only of BTC, but perhaps of others in the BRED portfolio…and LTC, too.

Timing on LTC, DGB, XRP: Not Bad!

From the “blind squirrel” department, all three have done well. Litecoin was, indeed, a defensive play – you could argue that it belonged in our BRED portfolio – some folks have told us so – but it’s (in our eyes) a bit like Bitcoin and a bit like Dash. But it’s also seen as a Bitcoin alternative, so that’s why it’s here. And it has nearly doubled in the past five weeks.

And some of our success is a little bit of luck – we thought we could be too late to get into Ripple’s XRP token, but it turns out that quadrupled for us.

Digibyte went on a tear, then pulled back and is now back down to Earth – if Earth is an 11x growth in its price.

And, About Our Laggard

Win some, lose some. WeTrust is still a good product/coin/token/system/platform. And we’ll keep it here because we do think that it has tremendous potential.

But two things do jump out at us here at Metacoin HQ:

We picked the wrong ICO.
We are also missing out on a number of these ICOs because we’re in the USA.

A Word on ICOs

Initial Coin Offerings used to be all the rage a couple weeks ago. Then Ethereum pulled back and cries of bubble were everywhere.

THEY’RE BACK.

Tezos $XTZ pic.twitter.com/zswITrHUiY

— BambouClub (@BambouClub) July 13, 2017

That’s one we missed out on entirely because we’re in the USA and these will not let Americans get involved. You have to wait until they are traded on an exchange…

That could actually be a good thing – if an ICO is oversold, overblown, and overhyped, it will more than likely fizzle once it hits the markets, creating a buying opportunity for mere mortals, er, Americans.

But, and this is a message for Congress as they look at tax reform, and maybe, too, a message for the SEC: as long as there’s a ton of caveat emptor attached, what really *IS* the problem with these ICOs being open to American investors? How are they any different from, say, my deciding that Blue Apron is awesome and I want to bet my IRA on the Blue Apron IPO?

Food for thought.

Two More Things

One – our hedge fund actually looks a bit different today than it did on July 1.

Yeah, $7,000 down since July 1. This is why we updated the numbers on July 13 – it’s a more accurate picture of what’s happened over the past 12 days.

Two – your own hedge fund. We told you before that this is a hypothetical experiment and you can use this as a guide for creating your own. However, we like the basic principles here: some big coins, some smaller coins, maybe an ICO or post-ICO coin or token or two. The general idea, as always, with a hedge fund is that you want to hedge your bets.

Overall markets – stocks, bonds, mutual funds, precious metals, pork bellies – those could tank tomorrow, or explode tomorrow, or trudge along. If you have all of your eggs in one basket, you’re likely going to have trouble someday. And if you have all of eggs in the wrong basket, that could spell trouble, too.

Love to hear your ideas! Tell us on Twitter, or in the comments below.

Oh, if you HAVEN’T gotten some coins to get started, pop on over to Coinbase, use this Affiliate Link, and you’ll get a Bitcoin Bonus with a qualifying purchase.

Jun 02 2017

How’s Your Bitcoin Hedge Fund Doing?

We like the concept of diversification here – so we’re never going to say to put all your eggs in one basket. In that spirit, we launched our own “Bitcoin Hedge Fund,” which aims to provide a combination of established and emerging cryptocurrencies that can act at least a little like your own index fund.

You can read more about our Hedge Fund here – it’s hypothetical, of course, and you should certainly get professional advice and counsel when coming up with something of your own.

Yesterday, we shared the June 1 update of our BRED Portfolio, which is on fire this year. It had a four-month head start, so of course its results – up 19 times – will be better than our one-month-old Hedge Fund.

Hedge Fund Investment Recap

Here’s what the numbers looked like on May 1.

Now, here are the numbers from June 1, with Coinmarketcap.com‘s prices at around midnight GMT.

The fund tripled – and then some – in just a month!

This leaves us with a few questions:

Can Digibyte keep rolling? Obviously, a 16x multiple is not really sustainable, is it? (If you compare it to, say, Ripple, whose YTD multiple is 36, it looks paltry by comparison. However, Ripple has kept chugging along.)
Ripple, Dogecoin, and Ethereum – not bad one-month performance for each, right? The worst of the three tripled. Can those continue, too, or are we in a bubble?
If even the laggards like WeTrust and Dash are up 30-plus percent, ARE WE IN A BUBBLE?

And that’s the point behind this “Hedge Fund”

The idea is that it’s NOT your entire investment portfolio. Is it 1%? 10% 25% or more? That’s up to you…but, really, the point of any hedge fund is to hedge your bets. One asset class goes up, another goes down, and your overall portfolio weathers the storm.

We’ll keep tracking this, and our BRED Portfolio, and there’s much more coming. For now, though, if you haven’t gotten some Bitcoin, what are you waiting for? Visit our Coinbase AFFILIATE LINK and you’ll get a bonus with a qualifying purchase (and you can buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin there).