Metacoin

Covering Bitcoin, the Blockchain, Altcoins, and Fintech

David Van de Walle

ChatGPT Isn’t Taking Your Job

When it all started, the “OMG You Should Try Out This ChatGPT Thing!” craze, I thought I’d give it a whirl.

(I Have A Question…)

…ChatGPT, of course, had an answer. Here it is:

It is difficult to predict with certainty which specific cryptocurrencies will survive or fail in the future. The success or failure of a cryptocurrency can depend on a wide range of factors, including its technology, adoption, market conditions, and competition.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of the largest and most well-established cryptocurrencies, and they have both achieved a significant level of adoption and have strong networks of users and developers. This can make them more resilient to changes in the market and give them a competitive advantage over smaller or less established cryptocurrencies.

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and it is possible for any cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, to experience fluctuations in value or to fail. It is also possible for new cryptocurrencies to emerge and gain significant adoption, potentially competing with or even surpassing existing ones.

Ultimately, it is impossible to accurately predict the future of the cryptocurrency market, and it is important for investors to carefully consider the risks and potential outcomes before making any investment decisions.

That Wasn’t Too Bad…

Nuance — in the form of online discussions at least, and maybe with respect to political discourse as well — died recently. It ain’t coming back online, and it certainly won’t come back if it’s reliant on machine-learning, algorithms, and AI-led back-and-forths about topics that used to be parlor discussions. (Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum were parlor discussions back in the olden days.)

It’s time to figure out why ChatGPT isn’t taking your job. It’s…complicated. But simple.

There might only be two approaches to content these days, anyway: either you have a 30-second TikTok piece that goes viral, or you spend 3 hours talking to Joe Rogan and it gets 5 million views. Quick hits, or nuanced explanations. Which brings us to our second experiment.

(Here’s ChatGPT’s Response, Round Two…)

Cryptocurrency is a complex and fascinating topic, one that requires a deep understanding of both human psychology and the mechanics of finance. As with so many things in life, it is a subject that is both rooted in tradition and destined to shape the future.

From a psychological perspective, cryptocurrency can be understood as a manifestation of our innate desire for freedom and independence. It represents a rejection of centralized systems of power and control, and instead offers a decentralized alternative that is based on trust, transparency, and accountability.

At its core, cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency that is built on blockchain technology. This technology allows for secure and transparent transactions, as well as the creation of new units of currency through the process of “mining”. Unlike traditional currency, which is controlled by governments and financial institutions, cryptocurrency operates independently and without interference.

However, it is important to recognize that the use of cryptocurrency is still in its infancy and that it is not without its risks. Just as the traditional financial system is prone to instability and corruption, the world of cryptocurrency is also vulnerable to fraud and manipulation.

Ultimately, the rise of cryptocurrency represents a profound shift in the way we think about money and financial systems. It is a subject that requires careful consideration and a deep understanding of both its potential benefits and its potential drawbacks.

In the words of Jordan Peterson, “The only way to truly understand the world is to understand the underlying patterns that give rise to it.” The same is true for cryptocurrency. To truly grasp its significance, one must delve into its history, its technical workings, and its psychological underpinnings. Only then can we begin to understand the full scope of its impact on our lives and our world.

And This Is Related to Crypto…How?

In our quest to automate everything — do you really need a “smart fridge?” — we’re quick to both automate and delegate the ability to think. That part of your brain that can remember the call-in number for the radio station hotline where you tried to win money back in the day — 234-7533, in case you’re curious; 674-8851 if you’re outside of St. Joe County — can now focus on other things thanks to your “smart phone.” (Which you *do* need.) So your brain is free to explore. Your keyboard is still yours.

Some thoughts, then…

Don’t Be Afraid of Thinking This Through

I haven’t arrived at any of the hundreds of blog posts on this site by heading over to some blog post generation engine and asking what I should write about. And, dare I say it out loud, there are some folks I’ve outsourced some content creation to haven’t been able to provide enough of a nuanced discussion to touch a nerve with readers. (Others? Yeah, some of the work from my pal Anthony were darn good.)

You live and learn, and you continue to think your way through how all of this might play out.

Or might not.

The Power of Narrative

In an article for the site Ordinary Times, I gave a sneak peek at the book I’ve been working on (for too long, it seems) called “Own The Narrative.” The concept: most really good narratives do tend to follow a few rules — and we’re not talking about conflict, rising action, resolution stuff — and if you can see around blind corners and figure out what those rules are and how they apply to your situation, you can use those rules to your advantage.

One of those 8 rules (50 percent fewer than Jordan Peterson’s 12) is to “Identify a Boogeyman.” Automation can be your friend but, in this case, automating the content marketing necessary to tell the story about the nuances of crypto…that’s an enemy. A villain. The Boogeyman.

If It Smells Like A Scam

One wonders if ChatGPT had been employed at all to sniff out FTX. I mean, it looked like a scam, it sounded like a scam. But, if all you’re looking for is some cheap content to ratchet up your brand’s profile, you’re likely to go after keywords and throw in a few affiliate links for good measure. (This blog: guilty as charged on using affiliate links, but not guilty of pumping FTX.)

So Why Won’t ChatGPT Take My Job?

Simple. You think, you read, you explore. You’re willing to seek out more information about whatever subject you’re interested in. You enjoy nuance. You’re not afraid of doing your own research.

And you continue to sharpen your own thinking, and your own writing. Right?

Your voice is…YOUR voice. Not anyone else’s. Don’t outsource your voice to a computer.

The 2023 Growth Portfolio*

* “Third verse, same as the first.”

Or, put another way, we’re doing it…again…but it looks a little like previous editions and a lot like last year’s edition.

First, the Background

Going back to the inception of this site, we’ve created mock portfolios that are designed to replicate what a mutual fund or ETF would look like…if it were allowed to invest in (what we’ve called at cocktail parties) “Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like substances.”

There was the “BRED Portfolio,” our first foray into the genre. (Bonus points scored just now for using “foray” and “genre” in the same sentence.) There were previous iterations of “Growth Portfolios” (though the first was called the “Crypto Balance Portfolio”).

And there was last year’s Growth Portfolio, which…tanked. (Bear markets will do that, it appears.)

Which Brings Us to 2023

Before we start, we do need to ask a question — posed in musical format by semi-obscure British alternative act Kitchens of Distinction, circa 1992 — about “What Happens Now?”

Album entitled “The Death of Cool,” natch

If your portfolio was, in theory, well-positioned to take advantage of a few different crypto developments — like Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the space, plus Ethereum’s “merge,” plus DeFi (like “Sushi“), and throwing in NFT gaming with coins like Magic and DeFi Kingdoms — you might as well just take the same ten coins from the previous year and rebalance on 1/1/23.

(If you want to see the 2023 Growth Portfolio in all its glory (ahem), you can also take a look at the updated numbers anytime over here: CoinGecko Link.)

Quick Thoughts

First up, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Second, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Now that that’s out of the way…What the heck IS GOING ON???

Seriously, the “Up Only” meme phrase from last year’s bull market (before it became a bear market) over there on the one side of the image is kinda done as a joke. But not.

Up Only (So Far, 2023)

They’re all up! The worst performer is DeFi Kingdoms, known by its ticker of JEWEL and it’s up a measly 26.87%. Huh? MAGIC has tripled?

Well, you do realize that most of these went…way down last year. So they’re just ticking back up, trying to answer that old problem of needing to go WAY UP to make back what you lost after going WAY DOWN by (in some cases) 95% last year.

Sigh.

Final Thoughts

Again, you’re on your own with any of these portfolio ideas. You could make mad bank, you could…not.

But it does like you could have had a nice pickup of 63% in just short of a month had you tried this 2023 Growth Portfolio.

18 Months Later: Was Jim Rogers Correct?

Editor’s Note: We decided to hand the reins over to a guest columnist, Lawrence James, who lives in Sub-Saharan Africa and has become a fan of Metacoin. We asked him to take another look at Dave’s conversation with Jim Rogers, and see what his thoughts were after the fact.

A year ago, in a conversation Dave held with Jim Rogers about the crypto and economic worlds at large, the pair happened to exchange a couple of points. Jim is a long-time investor, hedge fund manager, and co-founder of the Quantum Fund. Most importantly, he’s a self-made multi-millionaire who knows a thing or two about markets.

Biden Backing Up the Money Truck

Dave posed a question on the issue of Joe Biden giving out cash to people who elected him, which put the country in debt, and how it would be paid for. Jim said, “ You’re wondering but Joe Biden is not wondering,“ and later explained that politicians like Biden were driven by a mentality that insinuated that they spend if it’s there, and if it were not there, they would borrow it and still spend it. This came to pass when Biden awarded $1.9 trillion as part of the American rescue plan, which was geared towards bailing out citizens, and giving out $1400 stimulus checks, a move that further put the country in debt. 

Also, concerning the Biden issue, Dave asked for Jim’s view on whether the Biden administration was using that as an opportunity to continue an economic overreach and if such an event would ever unfold again. He said that that would happen again since the governments had guns while referring to power, and they knew what was good for the community. He claimed that maybe their approach was what was going to save everyone.

I think, true to this thinking, Biden’s approach, bordering on “overreach,” ended up working, but the discovery of vaccines greatly aided the administration.

BREAK TIME: HERE’S A SPONSORED LINK to BINANCE. SIGN UP HERE AND WE BOTH GET SOME CRYPTO. Now back to Lawrence’s article.

What About Short Squeezes?

Dave later questioned the issue of GameStop. It had gone up 85% from its usual high then. Jim termed that a short squeeze, for that was not the first time he had seen that, but what amazed him was how they could create such a vast short, which, according to him, was a legitimate and historical kind of event. He also says it can happen again, but he suspects it cannot happen in the Silver markets. However, this came to pass in another market when Nickel faced the risks of another short squeeze as of 31st March 2022.

What About Crypto?

Dave asked specifically if Bitcoin was a worthy trading vehicle, given the fact that, if it were made a publicly traded company, it would rank as the sixth largest in the world (at 963 billion dollars at the time of the interview). Jim termed crypto a worthy investment vehicle; he even added that if he had the chance earlier, he would have bought some for himself.

In line with that, he added that nations without internet access could not use crypto; hence in such a nation, one with crypto can be termed as one only “money rich” but can’t spend their money. He also pointed out blackout cases as another flaw to wanting to access crypto whenever in need readily. He mentioned that many nations had already raged war on crypto use on their borders. And if it were to succeed in becoming money,  the governments would outlaw it if it meant using guns. This has, however, not been the case yet, as El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal currency as of September 2022. 

Market Bubbles Abound…Still?

Next, Dave brought up an interview Jim did with Kitco, where Jim said we weren’t in a bubble in stocks. Jim agreed, but said that bonds were in a bubble, and at that time, bonds were at the most expensive they had ever been, and that was a bubble. He claims on the stock market, some stocks might have registered bubbles, but some stocks, Like Apple, Tencent, and Google, make profits every day and have never been in a bubble; hence the stock market, according to him, was not experiencing a full bubble just yet. He said that the many “SPAC“s coming, which he believed came after a bull market, would bring a bubble burst and an end to the bull market.

An economic bubble popped later in the year. Despite their impressiveness, the 20–30% corrections experienced in the first half of 2022—the most significant first-half decline in more than 50 years—had not yet warmed up. Instead, they had come from high starting positions after a period of the fast price increase. As a result, two problems needed to be addressed: first, were the beginning positions of these corrections so high that markets had inflated? Second, had the markets deflated as much as they usually do when a bubble bursts if they were in bubble mode? Knowing where we came from may help us determine where we were going.

In conclusion, I would say that Mr. Rogers is a man of his word as most of what he said came to pass. Crypto has been termed the future of money, and its use has been on the rise, with many countries even accepting it as legal tender. However, some people are still skeptical about its use, with Jim Rogers being one of them. Nevertheless, he is still a great investor, and his predictions are always worth listening to; however, as he stated earlier, one’s choice of investing should be characterized by their understanding of the investment.

The Zipper Merge

Kid 2 is taking driver’s education — a rite of passage here in the U.S.A., though less so in these modern times, where your every everything is catered to by things like apps, mass transit, Uber, and that concept of “prolonged adolescence” exacerbated by the response to COVID — and likes to tell his parents about how much he’s learned. This also means we have to relearn some things where “The Science” used to be settled (“10 and 2!” is now “9 and 3!”).

Which brings us to “The Zipper Merge.”

Why Not A Video from the Province of Alberta?

We’ve been merging all wrong, it seems. Wait til the very last minute, use both lanes, and Bob’s Your Uncle.

Ethereum’s Zipper Merge

If you’re like me — laser-focused on ETH for months, then there was an implosion in prices and you cut your losses and moved on to other things, like making a living — then the Ethereum Merge has sneaked up on you like a construction zone on US-55. What do you do with your ETH? Do you have any ETH2? Do you know the difference? Do you care?

Understanding The Merge

Long story short, The Merge is where Ethereum moves from “Proof of Work,” or a mining environment that is similar to Bitcoin’s (but not as profitable) where miners are rewarded with coins for proving validity of transactions, to a “Proof of Stake” system, where owners are credited for staking (“parking”) their assets.

Y’all ain’t getting Web3 without Proof of Stake, so that’s where it’s headed. But not without a meandering road with a few…forks.

Once The Merge happens, rumored to be in a couple weeks but certainly in September, ETH will likely see some changes to its price — maybe mad fluctuations? — and it’s going to be bumpy.

So get yourself some tunes and buckle up for the ride. (No, we don’t know who to believe either.)

Some Thoughts THAT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

These thoughts are not investment advice. But here are some considerations…

You Could Leave It All There*…

So yeah, there’s option one. For instance, I have some ETH parked on MegaCryptopolis. The game site is migrating to its own whole new world, so there’s not much choice I have in the matter. Whether I’ll get an airdrop there is another question: rumors abound about airdrops and whether they’ll happen, or not.

And if you *do* leave it all there, you’re looking at — thanks to calculations from Bitmex, with which we cannot trade in our region, natch — $45 per ETH.

Whales will make out like bandits. The rest of us could get a nice dinner out (after taxes, because, well, our jurisdiction will tax the airdrops like income and whatnot).

BTW, the Asterisk above means those assets you have parked in DeFi tools and other…things…like MegaCryptopolis. Or Sushi. Or a Uniswap pool.

…Or You Could Take It All Out of DeFi…

That’s another option here. Probably a pretty viable one, too, if you’ve lost any money from a rug pull. (Who among us?)

The thinking: you can’t trust anyone with your ETH so you might as well take yours out, and certainly take it out of any DeFi protocol with a high potential of rug pulls.

Sensible thoughts, but here’s option 3, which is where we’re landing:

…Something In Between

Here’s the winner.

We yanked some of our coins out of DeFi things, and we traded out of some duds to get ETH a couple weeks ago. BUT, we’ve also done that “why the heck not?” thing with a few. Holding a little in a pool of SUSHI and ETH, a little more in a couple barely there pools.

And holding tight.

We’ll All Be in One-Lane Traffic Soon

That’s the guess: from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, some folks will head off onto side roads, others will go off-road, and we’ll stick in this lane for a little while, while holding a piece of one of those four-wheel drive things.

Hoping it’s not a Yugo.

Crypto: Down. Stocks: Down. Inflation: Up. So What Do You Buy?

Here’s yet another post with a couple blatant caveats: (1) THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE and (2) NOBODY KNOWS WHAT’S GOING ON.

We’ve had a couple weeks here in CryptoLand. You name it, it’s down. Take our 2022 Growth Portfolio: a hypothetical $10,000 investment with $1,000 each in ten different crypto assets. Thank God it’s only hypothetical.

Screenshot from May 20, 5:30 a.m. CDT

It was a bloodbath. It still is kinda sorta a bloodbath, in that nobody knows if BTC saw the bottom, or if ETH’s move to Proof of Stake (known colloquially as “The Merge”) is going to be all that, or if stablecoins will stabilize.

And whether or not you’re better off throwing darts.

At Least the Stock Market Is Okay, Right?

Let’s answer the question in the meme with a screenshot.

Stock market, one-month performance.

The problem, though, is that to keep propping up the stock market, The Fed is going to need to thread the needle on interest rates. Too much of an increase and the stock market tanks. Too little of an increase and you can’t catch up with inflation.

So you’re painted into a corner because the stock market is so important to everyone’s 401(k) plan and the inflation rate — which is caused, DUH, by ALL THAT PANDEMIC MONEY PRINTING — is so important to everyone’s standard of living that it really REALLY stinks to be Jerome Powell right now.

Now, Let’s Talk Inflation. Cue Karen Carpenter…

“We’ve Only Just Begun…”

As David Stockman — President Reagan’s former Budget Director, native Midwesterner (shout-out to Michiana!), and future guest on my YouTube channel (call me!) — told us on Doug Casey’s Dispatch a couple weeks ago, we are collectively screwed. And it’s mostly thanks to central bankers.

That part about J-POW having a rough job is not an understatement; the corner we have been painted (printed) into is troublesome. Investors don’t know which assets to invest in, and the average Joe is more worried about real-life things like gas prices or the cost of food.

So…What DO You Buy?

We follow a few financial people on Twitter, on YouTube, and elsewhere. We’re nailing Jell-O to a tree here.

Here’s Joe from Heresy Financial, telling us (SPOILER ALERT) that Treasurys might be the way to go. Here’s another YouTuber — one we found from typing in “where to invest 2022” into the YouTube search bar, then going with the first one we found from the month of May — suggesting individual stocks. And here’s CNBC, taking a break from its “How This [NUMBER] Year-Old [JOB DESCRIPTION] Made [LARGE AMOUNT] By [ZAGGING WHEN EVERYONE ELSE ZIGGED AND/OR INHERITING MONEY]” template (shown here) to give us a whole host of ideas of where to invest in an inflationary environment.

Feel free to grab any of these ideas and batten down the hatches, right?

We’d refer you back (AGAIN) to our series called SHTF. Volume 1 is here and Volume 2 is here. But these are *mostly* crypto-related ideas (with a break for some precious metals and cash on hand). And that isn’t even guaranteed, if the last few weeks are any evidence.

TL;DR: See Elmo

Elmo Fire

Buckle Up. Good Luck.