Metacoin

Covering Bitcoin, the Blockchain, Altcoins, and Fintech

David Van de Walle

So You’ve Made A Little Money…

We check in on the 2024 Growth Portfolio as we get ready to wind down the year.

One of the fun things about crypto is having a Ron Popeil “set it and forget it” attitude. If you want, you can drop a little money here and there and not worry about it.

Dollar Cost Averaging — remember that? — has made some people some money; especially those who decided that a hundred bucks every month can get dropped into Bitcoin at a dirt-cheap price.

And That Brings Us to the Growth Portfolio

The idea behind our 2024 Growth Portfolio — and previous iterations, which you can read about here: 2023 Growth Portfolio and here: 2022 Growth Portfolio — was a mutual-fund-like approach to crypto investing. (It’s also hypothetical, so YMMV, DYOR, and don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.) Put simply, we took $10,000 and divided it equally between 10 different coins or tokens. Then, at the end of the year we can see whether we did okay, or not.

In order to actually achieve these numbers, you would have invested on exactly January 1, 2024 and you would have held all year. While it’s not the NVDA stock everyone loves, it is still not a bad sight at all.

First, ENS…

$ENS is Ethereum Name Service. It has done quite well in 2024, up 153%. Here’s a screener of its 2024 high.

However, ENS is known for a little craziness…here’s what its 2023 looked like..

And bear in mind its all time high was $83.40 in November 2021.

Next, SHIB…

Viral meme coin sensation, that $SHIB. Ups and downs. Same old song.

Some time in early 2024, it was at a low of a bunch of zeroes before the number 9, then it tripled. Like this.

Nice work if you can get it. $1000 is now nearly $2400.

The Big NARRATIVE Winner? Bitcoin. The Corn. BTC.

Your $1000 stake would have a little more than doubled, but the narrative win goes to BTC. Could be part the economy — no one knows (really) what’s (really) going on — could be a little of the election, could just be a general sense that now might be the time.

And it could be that psychological barrier of $100,000.

So close. So close and yet…so far.

Now, The Losers

We’re not going to focus too much on these; we’re trying to stay positive. However, after two years bringing up the rear, it’s probably time to ditch $JEWEL (DeFi Kingdoms) and $MAGIC (Treasure).

$SUSHI was the only other coin in the portfolio that was down; it remains a pretty good project and itself is a Top 400 coin.

What’s Next?

Well, we’ll keep an eye on these developments and will post again on the 2024 results in January. But, suffice it to say, some of the losers might get tossed out; there’s probably room for a couple of new entrants from near the bottom and near the top of the rankings.

As they say, stay tuned.

Up Only In 2024?

So far so good for the 2024 Growth Portfolio.

Here we are, on the way to another wacky crypto year. And things are looking…up.

If you’re new here, welcome! We write about crypto and trends and investments and the attempt to make sense of it all. We’ve been at it, off and on, for (checks notes) NEARLY SEVEN YEARS! (Here’s our very first post: 5 Things to Watch During the Tournament.)

And one of the things we do here is create hypothetical portfolios that you can use to hedge your bets. (DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.) We’ve done so for a few years now and we have had some fun with it; our Growth Portfolios have been the most interesting to follow. 2022 was the first one and, after a few tweaks here and there, we’ve settled on a decent mix of Traditional Crypto (BTC, ETH), Platforms (AVAX), DeFi (SUSHI) and some others (see below). 2023 did pretty, pretty well.

How Bout 2024?

Some thoughts on what’s here…

Bitcoin Is Very Much Alive

Story time: Back in my high school speech team days, there was a competitor who was talking about the “Peace Corps” but pronouncing it “Peace Corpse.” When she yielded to questions, one smarty pants in the audience asked “Is the ‘Peace Corpse’ alive or dead?” Her response: “Oh it’s very much alive!”

Bitcoin, too, having been declared dead more often than…well, insert whatever thing here…is on a tear so far in 2024. Up 23.69%. We’ll take it.

If You Bought ENS, You’re Enjoying a Ride

Ethereum Name Service is rocking AND rolling, but last year it…didn’t really rock. Or roll. Unless rolling downhill is a thing.

Timing is everything, though: quite a few folks, we would surmise, just didn’t sell after it imploded, hoping for a return to glory. And, with an all-time high north of $83, it’s going to take a while to get back there.

What is $MAGIC and Why Is it the Leader?

We’ve written about MAGIC before. MAGIC could be part meme coin, part…something else. Honestly, it’s a gaming coin and that’s where we’re kinda…huh? So we don’t know enough about it and the Treasure.lol website — YES IT HAS A DOT-LOL DOMAIN — but we will admit the game looks cool and it was fun a couple years ago to watch it go from next to nothing to 6 bucks.

(Then we watched it go back down again. Sigh.)

But, lo and behold, it’s 2024 and it’s the leader among our portfolio, up 27 percent. Yay, MAGIC!

Anyway, There’s Your Portfolio

Again, do your own research. These are ideas, and some of them could eventually drag your portfolio down.

Go get ’em!

Who Needs an ETF When You Have a Growth Portfolio?

There was news this past week about a Bitcoin ETF. And now they’re everywhere, it seems. Alas, you could call up your people and get some Bitcoin ETF action in your IRA or investment account. Or you could just build what we call a “Growth Portfolio.”

So with this post, we’ve decided to take a look at the 2023 Growth Portfolio and get a sense of how it did.

Some thoughts on the above:

Bitcoin Is Halving a Moment

Deliberate play on words there. More on that in a second, but first, here’s as close as we can come to the 2023 chart.

In late October, BTC went above $30,000 — something it had done earlier in the year, too — and has yet to fall below that level. The ETF played a role in that, as rumors were rampant all year that the SEC would say it was okay.

But the “halving,” when the block rewards drop — they’re cut “in half” — is most likely the reason. Estimated to begin in April, if you wanted to bet on Bitcoin before it becomes less lucrative to mine, this is as good a time as any.

An Avalanche Snowball

Or, AVAX had a year, eh? Around the same time BTC was heading above 30K for good (at least for good for now), Avalanche was stuck below 10 bucks a piece. But then, an explosion of sorts…

Yes, that is darn near $50 each right around Christmas.

But here’s a caveat: all of these coins have a lot of ground to make back up. (Remember the ol’ axiom: If it drops 80%, it needs to go back up 5 times to get you back where you were.)

The Worst 2023 Performer? It’s Having a Moment in 2024

ENS is Ethereum Name Service. It’s the only coin in our portfolio that finished the year down (by 10.79%) but that was so 2023.

To be honest, we’re not sure why the above 2024 chart shows so much explosion for ENS, but we’ll take it.

What’s Next for the Growth Portfolio?

In the next week, we’ll update the portfolio with some ideas for 2024; probably a tweak or two (maybe with some help from AI). Stay tuned.

Wait, Could You Have Doubled Your Money?

If you slept through 2023, you might have missed what amounted to a #CryptoComeback.

We thought we’d head to the “Crypto Flavorizing Machine,” otherwise known as ChatGPT, and ask about our 2023 Growth Portfolio — which you can read about at this non-ChatGPT post from Dave — and whether it’s got the goods going forward.

Also, this was a good chance to check on the abilities of the machine. Here goes:

The Evolution and Future of a Diverse Crypto Portfolio

As 2023 unfolds, the cryptocurrency market remains as dynamic as ever. Investors who equally diversified their portfolio at the year’s start with ten notable assets — Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), DeFi Kingdoms ($JEWEL), Avalanche ($AVAX), Crypto.com Coin ($CRO), Treasure ($MAGIC), SushiSwap ($SUSHI), Shiba Inu ($SHIB), Spell Token ($SPELL), and Ethereum Name Service ($ENS) — have witnessed a rollercoaster of trends and shifts.

Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH): These giants continue to dominate the market. BTC, as the pioneer, often dictates market sentiment, while ETH’s transition to Ethereum 2.0 has kept investors on their toes.

DeFi Tokens ($JEWEL, $SUSHI, $SPELL): These assets, linked to decentralized finance platforms, have seen varied performances, heavily influenced by the broader DeFi market trends and technological advancements.

Layer 1 Networks ($AVAX, $ENS): Avalanche and Ethereum Name Service represent the growing interest in alternative layer 1 solutions. They’ve been pivotal in discussions about scalability and blockchain utility.

Meme Coins ($SHIB): Shiba Inu, despite its meme coin status, has a dedicated community. Its value often moves on social media sentiment rather than fundamental analysis.

Niche Picks ($CRO, $MAGIC): Crypto.com Coin and Treasure have carved their niches — CRO in the crypto exchange space and MAGIC in the NFT and gaming sectors.

Looking ahead to the next year, several factors could influence these assets:

  1. Regulatory Environment: Increasing regulatory scrutiny, especially in major economies, could significantly impact these assets’ performance.
  2. Technological Advancements: For Ethereum and Avalanche, how they scale and improve will be crucial.
  3. Market Sentiment: Overall investor sentiment, often swayed by macroeconomic factors like inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, will continue to be a key driver.
  4. Community and Ecosystem Developments: For coins like SHIB, JEWEL, and MAGIC, the strength and engagement of their respective communities and ecosystems will be pivotal.
  5. Global Adoption: The pace of crypto adoption by mainstream finance and the general public could bring more stability and growth.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are highly speculative and volatile. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should do their due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before investing in cryptocurrencies.

This analysis provides an overview of each asset’s current standing and potential future directions, considering various market dynamics. Remember, the crypto market is unpredictable, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Now, Back to the Human Analysis

“Past performance is not indicative of future results” but the past performance of our 10 picks in the Growth Portfolio has been pretty strong. To wit:

Those three are the top performers. Avalanche has tripled. Bitcoin is up 2 1/2 times, and DeFi Kingdoms has doubled. (Okay, they all dropped crazy amounts toward the end of 2022.)

The whole thing? Up 76 percent in 2023.

The message? Well, diversify might be part of it.

And the answer to the above question: “Could You Have Doubled Your Money?” Yes, had you bought Bitcoin. Or Avalanche. Or DeFi Kingdoms.

Funny thing, this crypto.

Theatre of the Absurd: Crypto Edition

We seem to be on the precipice of something. Whether it’s a Chaka Khan (featuring Rufus) “Tell Me Something Good” moment — I’m more of a “Feel for You” guy, but you do you — or the complete collapse of the economy as we know it remains to be seen. But it is rather absurd. Everywhere. How absurd? Let us count the ways.

‘Bitcoin Fixes This’ Unless Your Poster Child Goes to the Big House for Fraud

Any time there’s something…anything…remotely goofy happening out there in financial circles, there’s always that rallying cry: “Bitcoin Fixes This.”

Which is all well and good except when you create a poster child/Muppet character who creates $26 Billion of personal wealth through a combination of fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry. Note that the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry case took about 3 hours for the jury to reach a unanimous guilty verdict. Which likely means he did a lot wrong while taking FTX to stratospheric heights and then watching it almost as quickly go down in a ball of flames due, again, to his fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry.

We feel for you, Sam. But we do not think we love you.

The most absurd thing about L’Affaire FTX is how much of an open book everything was. The founder wanted to change the world — as only he or that Drop of Blood Lady could do — and could not keep his big mouth shut about each and every violation of law (and cultural norms) he made.

Responding to Twitter DMs about what he was doing? Check. Donating to every Liberal political campaign under the sun with the hopes of influencing policy? Check. And so on, and so forth.

‘AI Fixes This,’ But The Words and Images Are Kinda Off

The above images are part of my own Bing AI Image Generator experiment. They’re semi-amusing at best — it has been said that your AI content is only as good as the prompt you type — and a little scary at worst.

For instance, the prompt for this group of images was:

“Panhandler on the streets of a large South American city with a sign that reads ‘Bitcoin Accepted Here.'”

Okay, it’s sorta niche content.

But the absurd imagery gets eclipsed by the even more absurd article I created on Bard, Google’s AI tool.

The prompt was glorious, IMHO, as it really amounted to one of those Mad Libs-style inspiration blog posts that are way too popular. “What [INSERT CURRENT EVENT] can teach you about [MARKETING, SOCIAL MEDIA, PUBLIC RELATIONS, LIFE].” Or, in this case:

“Create a 1000-word article that discusses why permanent Daylight Saving Time in the USA would be good for alternative investments like Bitcoin, Gold and Silver, and Land.“

The bulk of the article was gag-worthy, so we’ll spare you the entire thing. But here’s a snippet that should lead most people to throw up a little in their mouths:

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that is not subject to government or financial institution control. It is often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Permanent DST could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, as more people would have more daylight hours to spend on recreational activities and online shopping. Additionally, the longer days could make it more convenient for people to mine Bitcoin, as they would have more sunlight to power their solar panels.

The Lesson? Embrace The Absurdity

How are we possibly weaving together Bitcoin Panhandlers, SBF, Artificial Intelligence, and Daylight Saving Time? Well, we’re not, except to say we’re living in the most absurd times ever.

Embrace it.