David Van de Walle

Jun 24 2019

Playing the Long Game

Since *everyone* is jumping on the “IT’S A BULL MARKET” bandwagon of late, we thought we’d take a step back for a half-second.

Sure, the trappings of a bull market are there: the quick runs northward, the new entrants, the “OMG HODL” chants. And the $11,000 mark sure is nice.

SO – SHAMELESS PLUG – AND CLEARLY MARKED AFFILIATE LINK: get some crypto over at Coinbase, will ya?

But the real purpose of this here post is…playing the long game. Which means doing a couple things — beyond the HODL moments everyone will tell you about, or the “put 1% of your overall net worth into crypto” that the experts will hit you upside the head with — that might not payoff for months or even years. That’s okay. Time to play the long game with us.

**Let’s be as blatant as possible with this warning: do your own research. Your experience will vary. Not a substitute for investment advice or legal advice. You are on your own — we are just sharing information.**

Long Game Idea 1: Megacryptopolis

I shared my predictions with my buddy Von Likenstien from VRUoT. I was most curious about my timeline, as I said that Megacryptopolis (NOTE: THAT’S AN AFFILIATE LINK) was going to be huge BUT it’s going to take a year.

Did he agree? And how does Megacryptopolis compare with Decentraland — that other interesting land-grab style virtual world game that became rather large a couple years back?

“The big difference,” he told me, “is that, instead of depending on novice programmers to build the system, MCP3D is a complete, robust system. Plus, its economy is closer to that of the Sims.” Taxation is another element that is well thought out in MCP3D, according to Von.

From my perch: I am really new to the virtual world thing, and I never really played the Sims. Nor did I get on board with whatever that virtual world was several years back (must have been huge, right? I forget the name). But there’s something intuitive about the virtual world of Megacryptopolis. And the idea of millions of Chinese users having access to the game on their mobile phones this fall is extremely compelling.

Time Horizon: Probably a Year.

Long Game Idea 2: NFT Artwork and Collectibles

This idea isn’t just one site to visit, it’s an entire concept: Non-Fungible Token (NFT) Artwork and Collectibles.

This particular subject came up when Von and I were trading notes about CryptoSkulls — likely because he sent me a message and said “get on this, bro.” So I did, and ended up with my very own CryptoSkull.

When I asked Von about my CryptoSkull, here was his response:

OpenSea is where a lot of these things get traded, and the fact that it’s a non-fungible token means that it’s really tough to counterfeit.

As always, with these types of things, you’ll use a tool like Metamask and your ETH will be safe (provided you keep track of your seed phrase and guard everything rather diligently).

Beyond CryptoSkulls, there are CryptoKitties and even the pets that come as part of your Citizen packs on Megacryptopolis.

Time Horizon: Immediate (ish) to Two Years*

*the reason we said “ish” up there is that, if you want to trade these things and try to make a buck or two, you most certainly can. OpenSea is one place to do trading — but it’s sorta thinly traded right now.

Long Game Idea 3: ENS

Ethereum Name Service is more than just a new top-level domain for the web. In fact, the TLD component is coming later — a year and a half away, according to Von — because the real reason behind ENS is to allow people to send crypto (Ethereum and ERC-20 and ERC-721 tokens) to each other without having to type out a really long address.

Here’s a long address from one of my accounts:

0xD0f4c9280D87ae84c2590164FA089487615Fb1c8

And here’s an ENS “shortener” for it:

jaimedimon.eth

(Yes, I know that Jamie Dimon spells his name “Jamie,” this misspelling was done for a variety of reasons, mostly for humor.)

Some of the domains are already trading, and it’s highly possible that big banks will want their own ENS, for defensive reasons and also to get into the crypto game easily.

Time Horizon: Immediate (flipping/trading) to Two Years

Long Game Idea 4: Urbit

When Von told me about this one, he said “it might blow your mind.” Honestly, it kinda did.

The primer on the Urbit site will tell you more — and it is quite clever — but it’s likely you may not totally understand exactly what they are doing here. (I sure didn’t at first glance. Or at second glance. I’m getting there, though…)

TL;DR from the site: it’s a completely different network of computers, of the internet, of the web. It has the potential to change the world of the web as you know it.

Galaxies are the big hubs — there are a small number of them — then stars, then planets (the addresses on which you build what appears to be your own personal server and bot machine thing). (Again, I’m not a programmer — so I’m trying to translate this from technical into not-so-technical.)

(If you believe the naysayers: this whole idea has taken forever and hasn’t gone anywhere in a dozen-plus years, so why bother.)

Me? I figured (again thanks to Von) that the thing I should do is at least get one of these limited-edition planet things and see what happens. Because there won’t be a ton of them; and each one not only has its own unique name (ours is ~larwyn-tadlen) but its own SYMBOL.

One of those green things could control your toaster someday.

In any event, this one won’t take off for some time — but, in case it does, we’ve at least been part of one of the early land grabs. The network effect here might mean that we’re A FEW YEARS from these things taking hold and being used by the masses. Still, for what was an inexpensive investment for now (less than a cup of coffee), it’s possible that you could see one of those symbols on the cover of a magazine at an airport with the caption of “you could have bought this for two dollars in 2019, now it’s worth a million.” (That year could be 2049, though.)

Time Horizon: Five years, at least.

So there you have it: ideas for you to play the long game with. Some may seem out there, tougher to grasp than the “buy gold” or “have you heard about pork bellies?” ideas of yesteryear. A chance for you to start playing the long game.

May 11 2019

#CryptoComeback: Is It Time To Get Back In The Bitcoin Game?

People of Earth,

It’s been a really interesting few days in the Crypto universe, culminating with a glorious morning of some staggering gains.

Behold the Top 7 coins, screengrabbed a bit ago from CoinMarketCap.com.

Numbers like these provide nice bold lettering to the HODL crowd, and the ones who say I never left Bitcoin, and the OGs who bought at a buck a piece.

And, you know what, they could actually be evidence of a comeback.

If you’re familiar with our BRED portfolio, first introduced in the Bull Run of 2017, you know that this was ONE WAY to possibly hedge your bets. And a lot of the “hedging” success you may have had could have depended on a few factors — such as when you decided to invest, or where you are in your own financial journey, or even whether or not you needed actual money to pay actual bills.

If you’ve watched this space over the past few weeks, you know that we went back down the BRED rabbit hole again in April, and, at that time, we saw that the growth was about 29 percent. This does not a bad year make.

If you had decided on January 1 (hypothetically) to get back into the BRED portfolio again, you would be up 42 percent today.

However, Does a Nice Week (Or Two, or Six) Mean a Comeback?

That depends.

BREAK TIME: HERE’S A COINBASE LINK, AND THIS IS AN AFFILIATE LINK SO WE’RE BEING AS BLATANT AS POSSIBLE THAT WE CAN MAKE A FEW BUCKS OFF OF IT.

Bitcoin’s price on January 1 was $3476.71. This morning’s price was $6850.01. That’s an 82 percent pop in a little over four months.

But there are also some headwinds: the Tether legal troubles (which are just beginning) and the Binance hack (which the coin may have recovered from) are two pieces that might give you pause.

What to Do…What to Do…

Well, since we may be like you — skeptical, sure, but excited that the comeback ***might*** be underway, how bout some old, tried and true wisdom?

Do Your Own Research. Yes, that’s right, we can’t take responsibility for how much or how little you make or lose. We’re just here to provide some information. Act on your own investments with some diligence, okay?
Don’t Invest More Than You Can Afford to Lose. Duh.
If You’re In a “Friendly” Country, Consider Taking Advantage of That. Our buddy @BambouClub on Twitter is an expert on this sort of thing. We’re Americans, so we can’t do a ton of things you foreigners can.
Consider Other “Hedges.” For instance, we’ve talked about our love for this Non-Fungible Token movement, and specifically games like MegaCryptoPolis. (REFERRAL LINKS IN THAT ARTICLE.) That’s at least one way to spread out your risk.

What Happens Now?

Darn good question. A LONG WAY TO GO if we’re looking to get back to the $20,000 BTC level.

But the signs are good lately.

Apr 22 2019

Time to Revisit the BRED Portfolio for 2019

We’re back! Yes, that’s right, Metacoin is back, we’re re-entering the crypto and blockchain pool with both feet, and one of the things you’ve known us for is a unique view of the entire landscape. One such angle we’ve explored time and again is the concept of BRED: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, and Dash as a four-coin, equally weighted portfolio that can (maybe?) hedge against crypto craziness and economic upheaval.

Want to check it out again? Let’s go there.

BRED: A Primer

From the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” department, we posited a guess way back when that sitting tight with four coins that provided different sorts of exposure to the crypto market — specifically the combo of Bitcoin (the big kahuna), Ripple (now known as XRP, but a payment system that’s taking on SWIFT), Ethereum (that coin upon which a whole bunch of dApps are built), and Dash (a consumer-focused coin) — may very well give you the right kind of diversified portfolio to weather all sorts o’ storms.

Our first writeup about the subject was here: Meet the BRED Portfolio. And what an initial ride it was: As we learned right after the calendar turned to 2018, had you been wise enough to actually go there, to set aside equal amounts in the four coins and leave them, 2017 would have given you a 100-bagger. (Plus a 25-bagger on top of that.)

2018, found us (as detailed in the post linked to above) keeping track of two portfolios — the original BRED and the 2018 re-calibrated BRED portfolio.

2018, as it were, would have been a much different experience.

CEO of Kruger Industrial Smoothing: “Just finished reading our annual report. Boy, we really took one on the chin last year.”

As you can see, you would have given back 83.5%. So maybe it’s best to start fresh in 2019 with a recalibrated portfolio?

(Before we do that, here’s a refresher on 2018 BRED, as it checked in on New Year’s Day:)

Gee, everything was really expensive then.

So, Let’s Move on…To 2019

If you’re looking for a headline about the 2019 BRED Portfolio, it might be something like “BITCOIN IS BACK?” with a winky smiley face and also the tears that come with having maybe gotten rekt in 2018.

But the year is not 1/3 gone and, as they say in golf, billiards, and horseshoes: “there’s a lot of green in between.” (No, they don’t say that in horseshoes, but we now got your attention.)

We did as we are wont to do and went back and started BRED with an allotment that matched the original 2017 rules: 1/4 of each ($2,500) in each of four core coins. You can see how we allotted the money here:

You can learn more about the whole fork thing below.

Let’s Go to the Videotape

One thing that jumps out in the sober light of day: 30 percent (almost) in returns after 3 1/2 months should cause most people to jump for joy. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come? (Actually, it’s a nice bull market performance, since any asset class that appreciates at a 30 percent clip could call it a win for the year.)

Does this mean “Sell in May and Go Away?” Well, we’re not sure. Which is partly what makes this so interesting.

HODLers will tell you that the best is yet to come for all of these coins. Those with BCH that bought at the beginning of the year have almost doubled their money. Dash is up 55 percent. And so on, and so forth…with only the questionable BSV (read more below) and the Ripple’s XRP coin having pulled back this year.

Macroeconomic headwinds could cause folks to head back to the crypto asset class, too — something to keep an eye on.

DYOR — As Always — And HODL?

We’ve stressed this over and over here on the site: Do Your Own Research. BRED could be a great portfolio again — it may be a great portfolio now — or it could go belly up and we’ll all be left wondering “what if?” as a new crypto Winter emerges.

In any event, we’ll keep tracking this, with an eye toward sharing ideas that can potentially help you.

Wait One Second Before You Go:

What about the original portfolio, the one we started with in 2017?

We’ve renamed it the “BRED HODL Portfolio” and here’s what it looks like now:

Still up 20x, but here’s hoping y’all took profits

What About the BCH Fork Craziness?

It’s really a goofy story, but, in brief, there was a BCH fork, some folks don’t like the people who forked the coin, and it’s being delisted right and left.

Coinbase has a great writeup on what’s happening and other exchanges are using the fork as an opportunity to add the forked coin.

Anyway, Happy Crypto Investing!

Apr 21 2019

#MCP3D — Do You Have Your Citizens Yet?

EDITOR’S NOTE: We updated this post on April 28 to reflect what folks on the Discord channel have told us — you don’t need Citizens to buy land!

We’ve been tracking this site and its role in the Non-Fungible Token (“NFT”) universe for a little while now. (You can learn more in our recent post, where we get started on the #MCP3D platform.) In our *opinion*, this whole site could catch fire, and we base this opinion on a couple factors:

The “slow burn” development of the platform and users
The fact that the mobile game and 3D game are both on the way
The jockeying for position we see going on on the site
AND the inevitable “OMG” factor that *could* come from scores of Chinese users playing this game on their mobile phones.

We even told you that we’ve cashed in some of our airdrops — WOO HOO! FREE CRYPTO! — to build out our own presence on the platform and in the game. (That link over there is an AFFILIATE LINK to a platform called Einstein, and you can read more about it on the post about the Einstein Exchange.)

How (and Why) to Buy Citizens Now

As we told you in our last post, you need Citizens to play the game. In fact, you can get Citizens and hold onto them and you don’t have to buy any real estate just yet. (We’d get a little of both.)

You need a wallet like Metamask — we prefer that one because, honestly, it’s secure and it has a great name — and then you need some ETH. Not a ton to get started, as the going price right now for a 3-pack (the “Local” pack) is 0.033 ETH. That equates to about $5.71 US – so maybe a Big Mac value meal if you’re into that sort of thing.

They give you a discount, too; the discount was as high as 8 percent, if memory serves, and it dropped a bit since we got into the game.

We decided to embed a tweet from middle of the past week, and we’ll tell you why in a hot second.

#MCP3D people – there’s been a little movement on the sale of Citizen packs.

65 of the lowest-level 3-packs (“Local Pack”) have been purchased this week. Just FIVE “Federal Packs” have been purchased since last week.

7 Astronauts remain.

CC @imTokenOfficial @VRUoT2 pic.twitter.com/iiVlah3tIy
— Dave Van de Walle (@Area224) April 16, 2019

Now, the developments (which speak to the “and Why” in parentheses above):

The packs are selling; not like hotcakes yet, but they’re selling

Two things that we notice; neither of them are huge, but they’re both rather interesting.

Note how, in the above tweet, the discount was 4.20 percent. Today (screenshot directly above is from Saturday evening, April 20, 2019), that discount is 4.80 percent. (DAMNIT, ASSOCIATED PRESS, WE SPELL OUT PERCENT HERE.) The game developers ratcheted the discount up to 5 percent yesterday, in an effort to boost sales.
When we started tracking the numbers (on April 8), there were 3294 Local packs available. Now, just 3214 remain. That’s not crazy growth, but it’s steady.

We would expect more to be sold as Ethereum keeps its price moving up. We’d also expect more people to hang out and wait for more ETH, then to buy Federal packs (that’s one thing we plan on doing), which gives you a better chance of getting an astronaut.

(In case you’re wondering, in the ten days we’ve been watching, only 33 Urban packs, 10 Mayor packs, and just 5 Federal packs have been sold.)

Slow Burn…For Now…

Note that something could change at the drop of a hat — new developments in the game, another giveaway of Bounty Island assets, special pets being released — causing more people to head toward #MCP3D.

For now, we’ll just keep accumulating a little of both, Citizens and real estate, and keep an eye on what’s happening.

Who knows, maybe this Corgi will help us get an Astronaut?

Apr 15 2019

The 2019 Tax Day Crypto Portfolio

Happy Tax Day, ‘Merica!

If you’re visiting this site from elsewhere in the world, welcome! Great to have you here. We Americans have a deadline of today to pay our Federal income taxes and boy is that fun this year. You may have heard about a tax cut last year and the ensuing OMG factor that came next: “the rich paid nothing and I don’t get a refund anymore!”

That’s not entirely true. Because of withholdings and how much some people had – or didn’t have – taken out of their paychecks, it *sounds* like lots of people had smaller refunds this tax season.

Some of you, though, may be getting a little money back. Or, in this roaring economy, you may find yourselves with cash to spend, or invest.

We’re here for ya!

What Happened to Our Other Portfolios?

Oh, you mean like BRED and the “Hedge Fund?” Well, as we spend our time getting this site back and running after the “Crypto Winter,” we plan on revisiting those, too.

For now, though, we’ve decided to give you three options: Small, Medium, and Large. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, this is not investment advice, and remember that you may lose a little, a lot, or ALL of your capital with anything.

Here goes.

SMALL PORTFOLIO (Like, $100-$500)…What to Do, What to Do?

TBH, we’d stay away from speculating on high-fliers. We’ve been there, it can get ugly if something goes completely belly up.

In fact, if you want to spend all of your small portfolio on crypto, here’s what we’d recommend:

First: Divide it in Half

Let’s use $500 as the number here. Take half and just put it in a Coinbase account and leave it there. You can get one of 11 currencies at Coinbase (THAT’S AN AFFILIATE LINK OVER THERE AND YOU CAN GET A BONUS AND WE GET A BONUS, TOO, WITH QUALIFYING PURCHASE) and we’d stick with Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum (or just pick one) and leave it there. You’re in the game with $250 and you won’t feel the need to play around. Which brings us to the other half…

Then: Play Around

We’ve made no secret here that we’re now taking quite a deep dive into a crypto gaming community called MegaCryptoPolis. (ANOTHER AFFILIATE LINK THERE.) For this, you need Ethereum and a Metamask account to keep the two safe and in sync.

We’ve had fun so far with this game – we’re playing with house money, so to speak, as we cashed in “Airdrops” from the past couple years. If you look at your tax refund as house money, you might have some fun, too. Plus, there’s a bit of a gambling element, in that you’re taking a chance on which cool “Citizen” you’ll end up with. Here’s our favorite so far, she means business and we’ve named her “Sloan.”

MegaCryptoPolis “Professional” Who Means Business

MEDIUM PORTFOLIO: $1000-$5000

With this portfolio, we’d suggest you figure out how much – if any – speculation you want to do, and how much you just want to park in something (somewhat) safe.

If you’re not the play money type, then you can consider revisiting BRED: “Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, and Dash.”

We just went back to the concept of dividing money equally between the four “core” coins of the BRED portfolio. We also considered “forks” by investing proportionally between the two forked coins; i.e. since Bitcoin’s price is roughly 19 times higher than Bitcoin Cash (BCH), we invested 19 times as much in Bitcoin.

Here’s what it looks like as of this morning:

This is also a “set it and forget it” portfolio — with the idea that you’re not going to spend way too much time looking at the price growth in any of these.

You also may not get rich off of this portfolio, either: assume that the ship has sailed on the OMG I’M RICH!!! portfolios of a few years ago, as you’re not getting in on the ground floor on XRP (the coin from Ripple, which is why it’s known as “BRED” in this portfolio) with the hopes it will go to $20,000 per.

But this would be a good, safe, crypto bet if you can afford it.

WHALE PORTFOLIO: $5,000 on up

Okay, look at the below chart of seven currencies’ “sparkline” graphs from the past seven days. Fourth from the top (nearing its high) and seventh from the top (all upside last week) look most compelling. Curious?

These two might be somewhat worthwhile to take a stab at. BCH is Roger Ver‘s Bitcoin fork – “it’s the real Bitcoin” is what he’ll tell you. BNB is Binance Coin and that’s an equally compelling Asian crypto exchange that’s always doing interesting things – such as burning its own coins, which Twitter friend @BambouClub tells you might be right around the corner.

Both of these large coins — the above chart is from the Top 7 by market cap — and both are likely to be around for a while. We’d suggest considering them as part of your WHALE PORTFOLIO (said in all caps because why not) and here’s how that *could* look (DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!):

60 percent BRED
20 percent Large Market Cap Coins, with 10 percent each in BCH and BNB
20 percent on interesting use case coins — projects in which you see potential.

That third category is where you’ll have to, again, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH; you’ll also need to rely on gut and also sort through whether they’re good blockchain projects, good crypto exchanges, good business models, or just good ideas. Or all four.

Since you’re doing 20 percent in this category, you can pick three or four and, if any one of them goes belly up, you won’t be totally rekt.

Ideas for This Part of the WHALE PORTFOLIO

Here are a few projects to check out:

BitTube (TUBE): Someone’s going to try to take on YouTube’s market dominance and do it through the blockchain. BitTube is one such player (though, honestly, PewDiePie is headed over to DLive, which is on Steemit, so maybe his name recognition gives that platform an advantage).

Storj (STORJ): Decentralized, blockchain-enabled storage is a concept that we’re sure will take off. Whether it’s Storj or someone else remains to be seen.

Quantstamp (QSP) bailed us out in the past by analyzing smart contracts. You buy some of their coin to do that and it’s a pretty seamless thing.

And Paragon (PRG) is doing the cannabis thing — fits and starts during their development but worth looking at, as they now do both a “WeWork-for-cannabis” and a “seed-to-sale” tracking platform.

UPSHOT: Your Tax Refund Can Work For You, Maybe, With Luck

We’re just here with a few ideas, that’s all. And Lord knows there are folks anxious about getting back in, and curious about whether we’ll see another bull run ever. So, again, look around, do your research, and, if you’re ready, dive in!