Jan 29 2023

The 2023 Growth Portfolio*

* “Third verse, same as the first.”

Or, put another way, we’re doing it…again…but it looks a little like previous editions and a lot like last year’s edition.

First, the Background

Going back to the inception of this site, we’ve created mock portfolios that are designed to replicate what a mutual fund or ETF would look like…if it were allowed to invest in (what we’ve called at cocktail parties) “Bitcoin and Bitcoin-like substances.”

There was the “BRED Portfolio,” our first foray into the genre. (Bonus points scored just now for using “foray” and “genre” in the same sentence.) There were previous iterations of “Growth Portfolios” (though the first was called the “Crypto Balance Portfolio”).

And there was last year’s Growth Portfolio, which…tanked. (Bear markets will do that, it appears.)

Which Brings Us to 2023

Before we start, we do need to ask a question — posed in musical format by semi-obscure British alternative act Kitchens of Distinction, circa 1992 — about “What Happens Now?”

Album entitled “The Death of Cool,” natch

If your portfolio was, in theory, well-positioned to take advantage of a few different crypto developments — like Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the space, plus Ethereum’s “merge,” plus DeFi (like “Sushi“), and throwing in NFT gaming with coins like Magic and DeFi Kingdoms — you might as well just take the same ten coins from the previous year and rebalance on 1/1/23.

(If you want to see the 2023 Growth Portfolio in all its glory (ahem), you can also take a look at the updated numbers anytime over here: CoinGecko Link.)

Quick Thoughts

First up, this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Second, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Now that that’s out of the way…What the heck IS GOING ON???

Seriously, the “Up Only” meme phrase from last year’s bull market (before it became a bear market) over there on the one side of the image is kinda done as a joke. But not.

They’re all up! The worst performer is DeFi Kingdoms, known by its ticker of JEWEL and it’s up a measly 26.87%. Huh? MAGIC has tripled?

Well, you do realize that most of these went…way down last year. So they’re just ticking back up, trying to answer that old problem of needing to go WAY UP to make back what you lost after going WAY DOWN by (in some cases) 95% last year.

Sigh.

Final Thoughts

Again, you’re on your own with any of these portfolio ideas. You could make mad bank, you could…not.

But it does look like you could have had a nice pickup of 63% in just short of a month had you tried this 2023 Growth Portfolio.

Sep 10 2022

18 Months Later: Was Jim Rogers Correct?

Editor’s Note: We decided to hand the reins over to a guest columnist, Lawrence James, who lives in Sub-Saharan Africa and has become a fan of Metacoin. We asked him to take another look at Dave’s conversation with Jim Rogers, and see what his thoughts were after the fact.

A year ago, in a conversation Dave held with Jim Rogers about the crypto and economic worlds at large, the pair happened to exchange a couple of points. Jim is a long-time investor, hedge fund manager, and co-founder of the Quantum Fund. Most importantly, he’s a self-made multi-millionaire who knows a thing or two about markets.

Biden Backing Up the Money Truck

Dave posed a question on the issue of Joe Biden giving out cash to people who elected him, which put the country in debt, and how it would be paid for. Jim said, “ You’re wondering but Joe Biden is not wondering,“ and later explained that politicians like Biden were driven by a mentality that insinuated that they spend if it’s there, and if it were not there, they would borrow it and still spend it. This came to pass when Biden awarded $1.9 trillion as part of the American rescue plan, which was geared towards bailing out citizens, and giving out $1400 stimulus checks, a move that further put the country in debt.

Also, concerning the Biden issue, Dave asked for Jim’s view on whether the Biden administration was using that as an opportunity to continue an economic overreach and if such an event would ever unfold again. He said that that would happen again since the governments had guns while referring to power, and they knew what was good for the community. He claimed that maybe their approach was what was going to save everyone.

I think, true to this thinking, Biden’s approach, bordering on “overreach,” ended up working, but the discovery of vaccines greatly aided the administration.

BREAK TIME: HERE’S A SPONSORED LINK to BINANCE. SIGN UP HERE AND WE BOTH GET SOME CRYPTO. Now back to Lawrence’s article.

What About Short Squeezes?

Dave later questioned the issue of GameStop. It had gone up 85% from its usual high then. Jim termed that a short squeeze, for that was not the first time he had seen that, but what amazed him was how they could create such a vast short, which, according to him, was a legitimate and historical kind of event. He also says it can happen again, but he suspects it cannot happen in the Silver markets. However, this came to pass in another market when Nickel faced the risks of another short squeeze as of 31st March 2022.

What About Crypto?

Dave asked specifically if Bitcoin was a worthy trading vehicle, given the fact that, if it were made a publicly traded company, it would rank as the sixth largest in the world (at 963 billion dollars at the time of the interview). Jim termed crypto a worthy investment vehicle; he even added that if he had the chance earlier, he would have bought some for himself.

In line with that, he added that nations without internet access could not use crypto; hence in such a nation, one with crypto can be termed as one only “money rich” but can’t spend their money. He also pointed out blackout cases as another flaw to wanting to access crypto whenever in need readily. He mentioned that many nations had already raged war on crypto use on their borders. And if it were to succeed in becoming money, the governments would outlaw it if it meant using guns. This has, however, not been the case yet, as El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal currency as of September 2022.

Market Bubbles Abound…Still?

Next, Dave brought up an interview Jim did with Kitco, where Jim said we weren’t in a bubble in stocks. Jim agreed, but said that bonds were in a bubble, and at that time, bonds were at the most expensive they had ever been, and that was a bubble. He claims on the stock market, some stocks might have registered bubbles, but some stocks, Like Apple, Tencent, and Google, make profits every day and have never been in a bubble; hence the stock market, according to him, was not experiencing a full bubble just yet. He said that the many “SPAC“s coming, which he believed came after a bull market, would bring a bubble burst and an end to the bull market.

An economic bubble popped later in the year. Despite their impressiveness, the 20–30% corrections experienced in the first half of 2022—the most significant first-half decline in more than 50 years—had not yet warmed up. Instead, they had come from high starting positions after a period of the fast price increase. As a result, two problems needed to be addressed: first, were the beginning positions of these corrections so high that markets had inflated? Second, had the markets deflated as much as they usually do when a bubble bursts if they were in bubble mode? Knowing where we came from may help us determine where we were going.

In conclusion, I would say that Mr. Rogers is a man of his word as most of what he said came to pass. Crypto has been termed the future of money, and its use has been on the rise, with many countries even accepting it as legal tender. However, some people are still skeptical about its use, with Jim Rogers being one of them. Nevertheless, he is still a great investor, and his predictions are always worth listening to; however, as he stated earlier, one’s choice of investing should be characterized by their understanding of the investment.

Sep 04 2022

The Zipper Merge

Kid 2 is taking driver’s education — a rite of passage here in the U.S.A., though less so in these modern times, where your every everything is catered to by things like apps, mass transit, Uber, and that concept of “prolonged adolescence” exacerbated by the response to COVID — and likes to tell his parents about how much he’s learned. This also means we have to relearn some things where “The Science” used to be settled (“10 and 2!” is now “9 and 3!”).

Which brings us to “The Zipper Merge.”

Why Not A Video from the Province of Alberta?

We’ve been merging all wrong, it seems. Wait til the very last minute, use both lanes, and Bob’s Your Uncle.

Ethereum’s Zipper Merge

If you’re like me — laser-focused on ETH for months, then there was an implosion in prices and you cut your losses and moved on to other things, like making a living — then the Ethereum Merge has sneaked up on you like a construction zone on US-55. What do you do with your ETH? Do you have any ETH2? Do you know the difference? Do you care?

Understanding The Merge

Long story short, The Merge is where Ethereum moves from “Proof of Work,” or a mining environment that is similar to Bitcoin’s (but not as profitable) where miners are rewarded with coins for proving validity of transactions, to a “Proof of Stake” system, where owners are credited for staking (“parking”) their assets.

Y’all ain’t getting Web3 without Proof of Stake, so that’s where it’s headed. But not without a meandering road with a few…forks.

Once The Merge happens, rumored to be in a couple weeks but certainly in September, ETH will likely see some changes to its price — maybe mad fluctuations? — and it’s going to be bumpy.

So get yourself some tunes and buckle up for the ride. (No, we don’t know who to believe either.)

Some Thoughts THAT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

These thoughts are not investment advice. But here are some considerations…

You Could Leave It All There*…

So yeah, there’s option one. For instance, I have some ETH parked on MegaCryptopolis. The game site is migrating to its own whole new world, so there’s not much choice I have in the matter. Whether I’ll get an airdrop there is another question: rumors abound about airdrops and whether they’ll happen, or not.

And if you *do* leave it all there, you’re looking at — thanks to calculations from Bitmex, with which we cannot trade in our region, natch — $45 per ETH.

Whales will make out like bandits. The rest of us could get a nice dinner out (after taxes, because, well, our jurisdiction will tax the airdrops like income and whatnot).

BTW, the Asterisk above means those assets you have parked in DeFi tools and other…things…like MegaCryptopolis. Or Sushi. Or a Uniswap pool.

…Or You Could Take It All Out of DeFi…

That’s another option here. Probably a pretty viable one, too, if you’ve lost any money from a rug pull. (Who among us?)

The thinking: you can’t trust anyone with your ETH so you might as well take yours out, and certainly take it out of any DeFi protocol with a high potential of rug pulls.

Sensible thoughts, but here’s option 3, which is where we’re landing:

…Something In Between

Here’s the winner.

We yanked some of our coins out of DeFi things, and we traded out of some duds to get ETH a couple weeks ago. BUT, we’ve also done that “why the heck not?” thing with a few. Holding a little in a pool of SUSHI and ETH, a little more in a couple barely there pools.

And holding tight.

We’ll All Be in One-Lane Traffic Soon

That’s the guess: from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, some folks will head off onto side roads, others will go off-road, and we’ll stick in this lane for a little while, while holding a piece of one of those four-wheel drive things.

Hoping it’s not a Yugo.

Jun 02 2022

Seeing Through the FUD: How the Avalanche Network is Saving the NFT

(Editor’s Note: we’ve let our friend Anthony take the reins for this guest post.)

When FUD is at maximum and the bubble seems to have been thoroughly popped already, learn why the future of crypto looks bright for artists, developers, and users. I’m super bullish on Avax for at least three reasons: subnets, a talented artist community, and the best tokenomics project I have ever seen: Chikn.

As of this writing, the markets have taken mega hits around the world. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt — better known to crypto enthusiasts as FUD — is a term that gets thrown around a lot but it’s representative of how emotionally-driven many crypto investors are and how incredibly wary most are of scams and the completely insane price volatility that crypto is known for. And they have a right to be hesitant since a reported $2.2 billion was stolen via crypto scams only in 2021 — and anyone trading NFTs can tell you that it’s like navigating a minefield sometimes. Those looking for easy money without any due diligence or attention were getting rekt by outrageous APR pump and dump scams, elaborate cash grabs, extreme volatility, and even the recent top 10 coin, Luna, getting obliterated due to a massive exploit with the UST algorithmic stablecoin.

Putting down their bloodshot eyes from their screens for a minute after 48 hours of staring at red candles, the crypto trader of 2022 is a battle-hardened veteran that is being told to go outside and take their minds off the market for a while before they go looney. Not too long ago, they were the green rookies getting into the degenerate world of NFTs and crypto trading. They have seen firsthand just how difficult trading can be — it’s said that 95% of traders lose money.

Often, people have no idea what they’re getting into as their nephew or third cousin or whoever told them to buy a dog coin back in 2017 and maybe they should have (nephew, is it too late to buy the dog coin?) and then wonder why their wallet went to 0 after plugging their metamask seed phrase into a phishing website (wait, I can’t email customer support or the SEC to get my money back?). These stories are far too common, unfortunately, and I barely scratched the surface here.

It’s not just noobs getting destroyed also, but experienced vets that have been scammed and phished by professional, anonymous criminals taking advantage of the wild west unregulated DeFi space. But it’s all quite interesting, isn’t it? We are still here digging in our trenches.

*Insert my affiliate link to a hardware wallet here*. Just kidding, but seriously, look into getting a hardware wallet such as Ledger Nano X. Nobody will be able to make transactions without you physically using your device to approve it, which can prevent malicious code from emptying your wallet of your crypto and NFTs–it is happening all the time.

This is just the tip of the fudding iceberg, and even experienced veterans can get fooled by a professional scammer. Fortunately, there is a light at the end of the tunnel and silver lining to all of this. That light is the limitless ingenuity of the human spirit and how the cooperation of developers and artists on the Avalanche Network are redefining how NFTs are utilized, including pioneering art, tokenomics, community, and Avax Subnets. The silver lining may be that all these shenanigans and growing pains are happening now while crypto is still in its infancy — like my mom said, it’s better to get chickenpox when you’re a kid than when you’re an adult. The future looks good as we learn from expensive lessons and mistakes and build and grow into a more inclusive and safer Web 3.0 experience. Avax is leading the way on this development and I’ll briefly explain why I think this.

Three reasons why I’m bullish on AVAX

1. Avax Subnets

Scaling is a major problem for the most popular networks. Ethereum could be said to be a victim of its own success — with more people using it come the insane eth gas fees we have reluctantly grown accustomed to, with many people using some kind of app to track gas prices and only do their business on off-peak hours — which could still be way too expensive for practical, transactional use. Not to mention that claiming rewards from the node projects right now costs more in Ethereum than they are actually making in claims, effectively killing even the “best” node projects such as Strong Nodes.

Avalanche is helping to solve this problem by building the foundations that create attractive opportunities for project developers. Subnets allow devs to build their own custom chains using their own custom native token as the gas fee. These networks can be optimized based on the needs of the organization or project. At least a few DeFi projects have already utilized subnets, namely DeFi Kingdoms and Crabada, and I know at least DFK is still under constant development despite some recent horrible price action with their token (but I could say that about literally every token right now including Bitcoin — although I shalt not fud as I’m still bullish in the long term). On those projects, gas fees are paid not in Avax, but in that project’s own native token, which basically means the gas is ridiculously cheap.

GameFi is particulary suited to being hosted on its own subnet, as the game tokens can be used to pay for gas fees

Avax subnets are still in the baby stages and there’s so much potential for this tech. Entire blockchains could even be ported over to Avax subnets. You can look here for a “subnet demo” filled with lots of neat statistics and links.

Read the official website for more info about Subnets and why there is such massive potential for this technology.

2. Artists are pioneering the use cases and utility of NFT on Avalanche, with very affordable prices (unlike Eth)

Artists are wisely utilizing the NFT as another primary sales avenue, and for good reason because it is allowing independent artists — especially independent female artists — a chance at making revenue. Historically, artists have always had clients or benefactors and so this is a continuation of that.

However, artists collaborating on NFT projects are changing the game. These are high-powered NFTs that are sometimes breaking technological limitations and changing the idea of what an NFT is and can do.

For example, Swarms is a brilliant art project that gives super-detailed 4K HD bee art as part of an imaginative world that is an analog to our own world and culture, inviting the NFT owner to be a part an interactive artistic experience. There are seven different bee variations, called genotypes, and each bee has six body parts of varying rarity. You can evolve your bee by sacrificing another bee, which levels up your current NFT to “GEN II”. The NFT metadata changes as well as the artwork, giving you a brand new NFT that is based on the “genetic material” of the previous NFTs. It is an awesome blend of tech and co-creative storytelling. Swarms develops collaboratively with the Swarms NFT community, dubbed the Beekeepers.

The awesome lore gives context to the art and makes ownership fun and exciting. The project is clearly just in the early stages with a long and exciting roadmap. You can check out some of the articles I wrote about Swarms for more info — it’s awesome.

Metropius is a new multimedia Dieselpunk project which just launched their first NFT collection a few weeks ago. Minting a Metropius NFT allows one to claim an actual hard copy comic book for each NFT they mint. Years in development, Metropius is an award-winning animation that has expanded to include comic books, GameFi, a board game, merch, four NFT collectables, Augmented Reality (AR) and other perks. It has a long roadmap with neat rewards for holders. The metaverse will eventually be fueled by the $DIESEL native token which will be exchangeable with Avax. You can see my article about it here. There’s lots of active development going on with it.

There’s a lot more going on in the Avax art department, but these two are my favorite art projects right now, and it would be a good introduction to the type of creativity happening on Avalanche. It’s a great blend of pioneering tech and artistic ingenuity.

For the general user, Avax NFTs are also way more affordable – most NFTs are minting for only 1 or 2 Avax. Avax had an all time high of $134, which is considerably less than Ethereum’s high of $4732, with most NFTs minting for a bare minimum of a few hundred dollars and often trading for much more. Right now, you can buy a Swarms NFT for just under $60.

Avax also has a super great community, mostly through Twitter and Discord, and there are often Twitter spaces with giveaways and talks and lots of developments being shared by not only the artists but also developers and other community members such as myself.

3. Stake-to-Earn Tokenomics: Featuring Chikn

When I buy an NFT now, I’m wondering if I will get any benefit from it. Sometimes, sure, I buy one just to support an artist I like, and that’s it. However, more and more NFTs — whether to compete or whatever — are offering various utility and the most popular of this is probably the stake-to-earn tokenomics model, where ‘staking’ your NFT will generate tokens which are then useable within the project’s ecosystem to upgrade the NFT. The token can also be traded for Avax/USDC/other coins (which is the real end game for these projects — people are looking to earn).

One project definitely worth looking into is Chikn.Farm.

Out of every NFT project I’ve encountered that offers utility or earning potential, Chikn is by far my favorite.

It’s really quite simple which makes it so smart and compelling. Chikn NFTs lay $EGG which can then be used to upgrade the Chikn, but EGG is also used for other NFTs in the system including the Farm and Roostr NFT, which all work together to create a neat little game where you can choose to upgrade your NFTs, thereby generating more tokens in the future, or just selling them immediately on a decentralized exchange, or DEX, such as Trader Joe which is the best and most popular Avalanche DEX.

Anyway, super smart projects like Chikn have proven that NFT stake-to-earn projects can have both very interesting art as well as profitable and sustainable Tokenomics. And what’s really great about it is that they are basically passive income nodes that are MUCH easier to liquidate, since the NFT itself is generating daily tokens and there’s no need to lock anything up for long term-if markets go south, you can sell (and in a successful project like Chikn, you will find a buyer — Chikn NFT floor price is currently 32 Avax as of this writing –it minted for 1 Avax each last November).

Bullish on Crypto and Super Bullish on Avax

Although I barely want to glance at my portfolio right now as I’ve been pretty unskilled at catching bottoms recently, I do believe that just buying and holding Avax for the next few years will end up being a profitable investment, regardless of any short term fluctuations. It seems the general sentiment is bullish but we are just being subjected to macroeconomics that takes its toll on everything. In any case, it’s a very interesting space to be involved with. I think once the real potential of subnets are realized, we are going to see a price explosion on Avax similar to Ethereum. If Avax had even just half the market cap of Eth, the price would be around $400–500. As of today we are about $22–25. And remember when Ethereum dipped to $80 and you wished you emptied your savings into it then? NFA at all but just saying….

~ AntCat

May 20 2022

Crypto: Down. Stocks: Down. Inflation: Up. So What Do You Buy?

Here’s yet another post with a couple blatant caveats: (1) THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE and (2) NOBODY KNOWS WHAT’S GOING ON.

We’ve had a couple weeks here in CryptoLand. You name it, it’s down. Take our 2022 Growth Portfolio: a hypothetical $10,000 investment with $1,000 each in ten different crypto assets. Thank God it’s only hypothetical.

It was a bloodbath. It still is kinda sorta a bloodbath, in that nobody knows if BTC saw the bottom, or if ETH’s move to Proof of Stake (known colloquially as “The Merge”) is going to be all that, or if stablecoins will stabilize.

And whether or not you’re better off throwing darts.

At Least the Stock Market Is Okay, Right?

Let’s answer the question in the meme with a screenshot.

The problem, though, is that to keep propping up the stock market, The Fed is going to need to thread the needle on interest rates. Too much of an increase and the stock market tanks. Too little of an increase and you can’t catch up with inflation.

So you’re painted into a corner because the stock market is so important to everyone’s 401(k) plan and the inflation rate — which is caused, DUH, by ALL THAT PANDEMIC MONEY PRINTING — is so important to everyone’s standard of living that it really REALLY stinks to be Jerome Powell right now.

Now, Let’s Talk Inflation. Cue Karen Carpenter…

“We’ve Only Just Begun…”

Wait, WHAT? https://t.co/h6ILx4binx
— Dave Van de Walle (@Area224) May 20, 2022

As David Stockman — President Reagan’s former Budget Director, native Midwesterner (shout-out to Michiana!), and future guest on my YouTube channel (call me!) — told us on Doug Casey’s Dispatch a couple weeks ago, we are collectively screwed. And it’s mostly thanks to central bankers.

That part about J-POW having a rough job is not an understatement; the corner we have been painted (printed) into is troublesome. Investors don’t know which assets to invest in, and the average Joe is more worried about real-life things like gas prices or the cost of food.

So…What DO You Buy?

We follow a few financial people on Twitter, on YouTube, and elsewhere. We’re nailing Jell-O to a tree here.

Here’s Joe from Heresy Financial, telling us (SPOILER ALERT) that Treasurys might be the way to go. Here’s another YouTuber — one we found from typing in “where to invest 2022” into the YouTube search bar, then going with the first one we found from the month of May — suggesting individual stocks. And here’s CNBC, taking a break from its “How This [NUMBER] Year-Old [JOB DESCRIPTION] Made [LARGE AMOUNT] By [ZAGGING WHEN EVERYONE ELSE ZIGGED AND/OR INHERITING MONEY]” template (shown here) to give us a whole host of ideas of where to invest in an inflationary environment.

Feel free to grab any of these ideas and batten down the hatches, right?

We’d refer you back (AGAIN) to our series called SHTF. Volume 1 is here and Volume 2 is here. But these are *mostly* crypto-related ideas (with a break for some precious metals and cash on hand). And that isn’t even guaranteed, if the last few weeks are any evidence.

TL;DR: See Elmo

Buckle Up. Good Luck.