Metacoin

Covering Bitcoin, the Blockchain, Altcoins, and Fintech

Wait, Could You Have Doubled Your Money?

If you slept through 2023, you might have missed what amounted to a #CryptoComeback.

We thought we’d head to the “Crypto Flavorizing Machine,” otherwise known as ChatGPT, and ask about our 2023 Growth Portfolio — which you can read about at this non-ChatGPT post from Dave — and whether it’s got the goods going forward.

Also, this was a good chance to check on the abilities of the machine. Here goes:

The Evolution and Future of a Diverse Crypto Portfolio

As 2023 unfolds, the cryptocurrency market remains as dynamic as ever. Investors who equally diversified their portfolio at the year’s start with ten notable assets — Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), DeFi Kingdoms ($JEWEL), Avalanche ($AVAX), Crypto.com Coin ($CRO), Treasure ($MAGIC), SushiSwap ($SUSHI), Shiba Inu ($SHIB), Spell Token ($SPELL), and Ethereum Name Service ($ENS) — have witnessed a rollercoaster of trends and shifts.

Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH): These giants continue to dominate the market. BTC, as the pioneer, often dictates market sentiment, while ETH’s transition to Ethereum 2.0 has kept investors on their toes.

DeFi Tokens ($JEWEL, $SUSHI, $SPELL): These assets, linked to decentralized finance platforms, have seen varied performances, heavily influenced by the broader DeFi market trends and technological advancements.

Layer 1 Networks ($AVAX, $ENS): Avalanche and Ethereum Name Service represent the growing interest in alternative layer 1 solutions. They’ve been pivotal in discussions about scalability and blockchain utility.

Meme Coins ($SHIB): Shiba Inu, despite its meme coin status, has a dedicated community. Its value often moves on social media sentiment rather than fundamental analysis.

Niche Picks ($CRO, $MAGIC): Crypto.com Coin and Treasure have carved their niches — CRO in the crypto exchange space and MAGIC in the NFT and gaming sectors.

Looking ahead to the next year, several factors could influence these assets:

  1. Regulatory Environment: Increasing regulatory scrutiny, especially in major economies, could significantly impact these assets’ performance.
  2. Technological Advancements: For Ethereum and Avalanche, how they scale and improve will be crucial.
  3. Market Sentiment: Overall investor sentiment, often swayed by macroeconomic factors like inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, will continue to be a key driver.
  4. Community and Ecosystem Developments: For coins like SHIB, JEWEL, and MAGIC, the strength and engagement of their respective communities and ecosystems will be pivotal.
  5. Global Adoption: The pace of crypto adoption by mainstream finance and the general public could bring more stability and growth.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are highly speculative and volatile. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should do their due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before investing in cryptocurrencies.

This analysis provides an overview of each asset’s current standing and potential future directions, considering various market dynamics. Remember, the crypto market is unpredictable, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Now, Back to the Human Analysis

“Past performance is not indicative of future results” but the past performance of our 10 picks in the Growth Portfolio has been pretty strong. To wit:

Those three are the top performers. Avalanche has tripled. Bitcoin is up 2 1/2 times, and DeFi Kingdoms has doubled. (Okay, they all dropped crazy amounts toward the end of 2022.)

The whole thing? Up 76 percent in 2023.

The message? Well, diversify might be part of it.

And the answer to the above question: “Could You Have Doubled Your Money?” Yes, had you bought Bitcoin. Or Avalanche. Or DeFi Kingdoms.

Funny thing, this crypto.

Theatre of the Absurd: Crypto Edition

We seem to be on the precipice of something. Whether it’s a Chaka Khan (featuring Rufus) “Tell Me Something Good” moment — I’m more of a “Feel for You” guy, but you do you — or the complete collapse of the economy as we know it remains to be seen. But it is rather absurd. Everywhere. How absurd? Let us count the ways.

‘Bitcoin Fixes This’ Unless Your Poster Child Goes to the Big House for Fraud

Any time there’s something…anything…remotely goofy happening out there in financial circles, there’s always that rallying cry: “Bitcoin Fixes This.”

Which is all well and good except when you create a poster child/Muppet character who creates $26 Billion of personal wealth through a combination of fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry. Note that the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry case took about 3 hours for the jury to reach a unanimous guilty verdict. Which likely means he did a lot wrong while taking FTX to stratospheric heights and then watching it almost as quickly go down in a ball of flames due, again, to his fraud, abuse, malfeasance, and puppetry.

We feel for you, Sam. But we do not think we love you.

The most absurd thing about L’Affaire FTX is how much of an open book everything was. The founder wanted to change the world — as only he or that Drop of Blood Lady could do — and could not keep his big mouth shut about each and every violation of law (and cultural norms) he made.

Responding to Twitter DMs about what he was doing? Check. Donating to every Liberal political campaign under the sun with the hopes of influencing policy? Check. And so on, and so forth.

‘AI Fixes This,’ But The Words and Images Are Kinda Off

The above images are part of my own Bing AI Image Generator experiment. They’re semi-amusing at best — it has been said that your AI content is only as good as the prompt you type — and a little scary at worst.

For instance, the prompt for this group of images was:

“Panhandler on the streets of a large South American city with a sign that reads ‘Bitcoin Accepted Here.'”

Okay, it’s sorta niche content.

But the absurd imagery gets eclipsed by the even more absurd article I created on Bard, Google’s AI tool.

The prompt was glorious, IMHO, as it really amounted to one of those Mad Libs-style inspiration blog posts that are way too popular. “What [INSERT CURRENT EVENT] can teach you about [MARKETING, SOCIAL MEDIA, PUBLIC RELATIONS, LIFE].” Or, in this case:

“Create a 1000-word article that discusses why permanent Daylight Saving Time in the USA would be good for alternative investments like Bitcoin, Gold and Silver, and Land.“

The bulk of the article was gag-worthy, so we’ll spare you the entire thing. But here’s a snippet that should lead most people to throw up a little in their mouths:

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that is not subject to government or financial institution control. It is often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Permanent DST could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, as more people would have more daylight hours to spend on recreational activities and online shopping. Additionally, the longer days could make it more convenient for people to mine Bitcoin, as they would have more sunlight to power their solar panels.

The Lesson? Embrace The Absurdity

How are we possibly weaving together Bitcoin Panhandlers, SBF, Artificial Intelligence, and Daylight Saving Time? Well, we’re not, except to say we’re living in the most absurd times ever.

Embrace it.

Crypto Isn’t Dead; It Isn’t Even on Life Support

We originally wanted to call this post “Night of the Living Crypto.” And that may have made sense given the fact that this is October 1 and we are entering Halloween season and the industry is a little sorta kinda zombie-esque.

To wit, here’s the YTD 2023 performance of the assets in our hypothetical “Growth Portfolio,” which took $10,000 and put it equally on 1/1/23 into 10 different crypto assets:

To paraphrase a former colleague, “That’s not too freaking bad.” (Of course — and I’m paraphrasing another former colleague — “It’s not bad, but it’s not good.”)

BUT…it’s not…DEAD.

We wrote about the Growth Portfolio here earlier this year; who would have thought that, in these modern times, somehow you’d be only down a little more than one percent entering the 4th quarter of the year?

And, also, without the dead weight at the bottom of that list, you would have — theoretically, since you would have had to time the market exactly on 1/1/23 — done really well.

The Big…Three? Two? Five?

We’re gonna go with the Big Two. Tether is an asset that is supposed to mirror the US Dollar in that it trades 99% of the time at $1.00. Binance has had its issues (read more about those here: The Street Binance Story) and XRP has just re-emerged as something you can trade in the US (Learn more about that here: Investopedia XRP).

First up, Bitcoin. BTC is…A-OK.

It does help that 1/1/23 was the bottom. Note to self: always buy at the bottom.

But what about Ethereum? ETH is, also, A-OK.

So it’s the Big Two. Had you invested your $10,000 stack into just those two coins, BTC and ETH, you’d have a tidy $15,313.50.

What Next? Who Knows, But…

First of all, that bottom three? Yikes.

That’s not incredibly bad — not down 99% like some defunct coins — but it’s not great.

Maybe the names are the ones that are gonna survive long-term? Or maybe having access to some of these $JEWEL or $SUSHI coins will give you access to potential 10-baggers?

However, what we *are* seeing here is that it’s really really REALLY tough to call the bottom; you would have been right predicting that 1/1 was the bottom for $BTC and $ETH and dead wrong for the bottom three.

In any event, the Big Two are doing just fine this year.

And Crypto Isn’t Dead.

The Return of the Meme Coin

Time to have a little fun with a combination of finance, gambling, AI, the Oxford comma, and meme coins.

If I had a dollar for every meme coin I’ve seen, heard about, been pitched, been presented a scammy airdrop tweet for, or lost my shirt on, I’d have probably one trillion meme coins.

(And if you count up all the meme coins stuck in my MetaMask account and maybe sitting on my phone, you’re well on your way to the first trillion.)

So we thought we’d start with Bard, the AI tool from Google, and see what it/he/they think(s) about the current state of Meme Coins.

The prompt:

Suggest five crypto meme coins that could be potential ten-baggers — that is, could go up in price 10x — based on current conditions and past results.

Bard’s Response

Here are five crypto meme coins that could be potential ten-baggers:

  • Dogecoin (DOGE): Dogecoin is the original meme coin, and it has a large and passionate community of supporters. It is also one of the most well-known cryptocurrencies, which gives it a lot of potential for growth.
  • Shiba Inu (SHIB): Shiba Inu is another popular meme coin that has seen a lot of growth in recent months. It is similar to Dogecoin in that it is based on the Shiba Inu dog breed, but it has its own unique features and community.
  • Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE): Baby Doge Coin is a newer meme coin that is based on Dogecoin. It has quickly gained popularity, and it has the potential to reach even greater heights than its predecessor.
  • Floki Inu (FLOKI): Floki Inu is another newer meme coin that is based on the Shiba Inu dog breed. It has a strong community of supporters, and it is quickly gaining momentum.
  • SafeMoon (SAFEMOON): SafeMoon is a meme coin that has a unique tokenomics system that rewards holders for holding their tokens. This has helped to create a strong community of supporters, and it has the potential to reach even greater heights.

It is important to note that these are just a few of the many potential ten-baggers in the crypto meme space. There are many other promising projects out there, and it is important to do your own research before investing in any cryptocurrency.

It is also important to remember that meme coins are a high-risk investment. The prices of these coins can be very volatile, and they can lose value quickly. If you are considering investing in a meme coin, be sure to only invest what you can afford to lose.

Let’s Go to the Videotape…

Dave here again. And we’re not exactly going to the videotape, but we are going to compare and contrast the thoughts from the Bard machine with some thoughts of our own. (Folks, THIS is how AI and ChatGPT and Bard and all are supposed to work. Want more thoughts on how your life might change? Check out this post, complete with a Jordan Peterson Meme.) Let’s start with DOGE.

BEFORE WE DO THAT…First of all, this is not investment advice. Note above that Bard told you as much, and said you should “be sure to only invest what you can afford to lose.” Wise old Bard.

AND…why not make this a CLEARLY MARKED SPONSORED POST? Sure. Here’s an AFFILIATE LINK from BINANCE. We can both benefit if you use that link to sign up. Now, let’s get to DOGE…

Elon Musk Was Right

(Thanks to CoinGecko for the stats)

Elon said something once about “to the Moon” and I think he was talking about DOGE because if he had said “to Mars” he’d be talking about SpaceX. Alas, he was right…if you look at the growth of the coin from its all time low 8 years ago. But who HODLed DOGE? Nobody, that’s who.

Is it a safe bet? Eh…

Here’s one way of looking at it: Market Cap. If DOGE is an $11B coin (well, just short, but let’s round up), could it become…a $20B coin? $100B? OR $1B?

From the “Up Only” perspective, yeah, it might be at its peak.

On a 1-10 scale with 10 being the likelihood of a “ten-bagger,” and 1 being “you might be better off rolling your window down while driving on the highway and throwing a bunch of twenties out of your car,” we give this a 3.

SHIB. Or…SHIV.

Here’s the thing about SHIB. You had to get in super early or else…you are probably better off trying other options.

This SHIB thing is the 15th-largest crypto by market cap. And it — like the other meme coins — serves no utility. Market cap of $6B. Nah, it gets a score of 2 on the 10-point scale.

We’ll go with SHIV, who gets a 10.

There’s a Baby Doge?

Okay. But, this one is confusing because there are multiple Baby Doges AND this coin is also on Binance Smart Chain (BSC) but has expanded to Ethereum, too. It’s the ultimate in DYOR BUT, with a market cap of $333M, yeah, it has room to grow. Plus the confusion and the desire to get in on something that *could be* the next DOGE means…We give it a score of 6.

FLOKI Is Pretty Much the Same, Right?

A cursory glance at the numbers tells us that FLOKI and BABY DOGE are pretty much the same coin. Both come in at roughly the same market cap, so it might come down to gut feel.

We’re going to give a slightly higher score to FLOKI thanks to its not having “DOGE” in its name. We give it a 7.

What Is SAFEMOON and Why No Dog?

SAFEMOON does not appear to be affiliated with a dog meme. This is a plus.

It’s over on the BSC chain, so there needs to be some BNB to take advantage of it. (How do you get BNB? You use the CLEARLY MARKED BINANCE AFFILIATE LINK.)

Market cap is lowest among the five coins on our list, so it probably gets the highest score. Nice stats here:

We give it an 8.

Final Thoughts on AL, or AI

We have a couple final thoughts here.

First of all, as evidenced by the image at the top of this post, the move to sans-serif fonts has meant that you’re not totally sure if people are talking about Artificial Intelligence or guys named Al.

That being said, the list created by Bard was fine. It served its purpose: quite a bit more than a Google search, but not quite enough to give you the full feel for what’s going on.

Finally, you’re best off — AND THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE — ensuring that you have the basics taken care of and are ready for (surprise) the SHTF stuff we’ve talked about before venturing into the meme coin game.

Too Big To Fail?

Continuing our series — which we’ll cross-post on the SHTF Megapost — talking about the craziness of the economy. Two pieces to this one: first, we take a ChatGPT-led approach (they did most of the writing, we do the editing) to the concept of “Too Big To Fail” banks.

Second: we share a link to a very recent (March 25) video where Glenn Beck interviews David Sacks to talk about…looks around…everything.

The BLATANT SPONSOR LINK HERE is from Binance.us. You get a bonus and so do we if you make a qualifying purchase.

What Makes a Bank ‘Too Big To Fail’

We took to AI, specifically ChatGPT, with the following prompt…

Explain in a 1000-word post why the US Federal Reserve can help stop Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) from going under, and how to best keep the mid-sized and regional banks from failing, too.

So we did a little light editing, and the following is what the computers spit out.

What Is a GSIB?

The Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) are large financial institutions that are considered too big to fail. The failure of such institutions could have a catastrophic impact on the global economy, as they are intertwined with other financial institutions and industries. The US Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in preventing the failure of GSIBs and ensuring the stability of the financial system. In this post, we will discuss the role of the Federal Reserve in preventing GSIBs from going under and how it can also keep mid-sized and regional banks from failing.

The Federal Reserve, also known as the central bank of the United States, is responsible for conducting monetary policy, supervising and regulating banks, and maintaining the stability of the financial system. One of the most important tools that the Federal Reserve has in ensuring financial stability is its ability to act as a lender of last resort. This means that in times of crisis, the Federal Reserve can lend money to financial institutions that are facing liquidity problems and prevent them from going bankrupt.

The Federal Reserve has a number of mechanisms in place to prevent the failure of GSIBs. One of the most important is the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program, which evaluates the capital adequacy of large financial institutions. The CCAR assesses whether GSIBs have enough capital to withstand adverse economic scenarios, such as a recession or financial crisis. The Federal Reserve can then require these institutions to increase their capital if it determines that they are not adequately prepared for such scenarios.

Another mechanism that the Federal Reserve has in place is the supervisory stress testing program. This program assesses the resilience of GSIBs to potential shocks in the financial system. The stress tests evaluate how GSIBs would perform under different economic scenarios, including severe recessions and financial crises. This enables the Federal Reserve to identify potential weaknesses in the institutions’ risk management practices and take steps to address them.

In addition to these mechanisms, the Federal Reserve also has the ability to provide emergency loans to financial institutions in times of crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve provided emergency loans to several large financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. These loans helped prevent these institutions from going bankrupt and prevented a catastrophic collapse of the financial system.

What About the Mid-Sized Banks?

While the Federal Reserve has been successful in preventing the failure of GSIBs, it is also important to ensure the stability of mid-sized and regional banks. These institutions may not be as systemically important as GSIBs, but their failure can still have a significant impact on local economies and communities.

To prevent mid-sized and regional banks from failing, the Federal Reserve has implemented a number of measures. One of these measures is the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), which requires banks to meet the credit needs of the communities in which they operate. The CRA encourages banks to provide loans to low- and moderate-income individuals and businesses, which helps to support local economic development.

The Federal Reserve also conducts regular supervisory examinations of mid-sized and regional banks. These examinations evaluate the financial health and risk management practices of these institutions. If the examinations reveal weaknesses in these areas, the Federal Reserve can require the institutions to take corrective action.

In addition to these measures, the Federal Reserve has also taken steps to promote diversity and inclusion in the banking industry. The Federal Reserve believes that a diverse workforce can help promote better decision-making and risk management practices in financial institutions. The Federal Reserve has established diversity and inclusion committees and initiatives to promote these values in the banking industry.

Summary

In conclusion, the US Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in preventing the failure of Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) and ensuring the stability of the financial system. The Federal Reserve has a number of mechanisms in place, including the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program, supervisory stress testing, and other tools to help avoid catastrophe.

Glenn and David

Wrapping It All Up…For Now

A couple thoughts:

First up, OMG, Deutsche Bank is apparently in trouble. It’s somewhere near the top of the GSIB list.

Second, also OMG, Glenn’s interview with David is really something. Probably a little scary, too. Worth a watch.

Third, revisit the original SHTF posts for a crypto-ish take on what to potentially do next.